By James Altucher
Posted at 12:08 p.m. on March 9, 2009
The brutal bear market that started in early 2008 has claimed many lives along the way. The S&P 500 dipped to its lowest levels since 1996 last week, proving once and for all that buy and hold is indeed a dead investment strategy.
While I am not advocating that retirees day-trade their 401(K)s, active portfolio management is an important tool during a bear market.
With this in mind, each week at Stockpickr, we compile the Rocket Stocks portfolio of stocks that could snap back in the coming days.
Let’s look back and see how last week's ideas fared:
ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) finished last week down 15% after reporting that quarterly profit nearly quadrupled, helped by a $98 million gain on derivatives. ATP said it expects to remain in compliance with all financial covenants during 2009. Additionally, for the fourth quarter, the company reported net income of $50.2 million, or $1.41 a share, compared with $12.7 million, or 38 cents a share, a year earlier.
Vision China Media (VISN) finished last week down 8% despite being up more than 9% on Wednesday. Vision China Media reported that full-year 2008 advertising service revenue grew 276.6% year over year and fourth-quarter net income grew 158.6% .
Transocean (RIG), which was a short idea last week, finished down 12% as the overall weakness in the equity markets and technical breakdown of Exxon Mobil (XOM) below $65 caused selling across the oil service sector.
Here are some of the names in this week's Rocket Stocks portfolio.
Stec (STEC), long ahead of earnings: Stec will likely gap higher this week due to an earnings catalyst. Last quarter came ahead of estimates, with non-GAAP gross profit margin of 34.1% for the third quarter of 2008, compared with 31.1% for the third quarter of 2007 and 35.3% for the second quarter of 2008. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were 10 cents for the third quarter of 2008, compared with 6 cents for the third quarter of 2007 and 9 cents for the second quarter of 2008. GAAP gross profit margin was 32.1% for the third quarter of 2008, compared with 29% for the third quarter of 2007 and 32.3% for the second quarter of 2008.
In November, the board approved a $10 million buyback. Needham has a "strong buy" on Stec with a $15 price target. In midday Monday trading, the stock was down 11 cent, or 2.1%, to $5.21.
NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP), long ahead of earnings: Shares of NPS Pharmaceuticals have been relatively depressed lately, despite a broader biotech rally over the last several months. Last quarter, NPS Pharma earned $1.2 million, or 3 cents per share, compared with a loss of $14.8 million, or 32 cents per share, during the same period a year earlier. Revenue rose to $27 million from $13.1 million on increased license and royalty fees. Analysts were expecting a loss of 17 cents per share on revenue of $27 million.
NPS said revenue gains resulted from licensing fees from Nycomed for Gattex, which is designed to treat short-bowel syndrome. It also received royalty revenue on sales of Amgen's (AMGN) Sensipar.
Some of the top biotech investors are in NPS, such has the $7 billion New York City-based biotech hedge fund OrbiMed Advisors, which is the second-largest investor with an 8.39% stake. In addition, Merlin BioMed Group has a 2.59% stake, and Renaissance Technologies has a 7.81% stake.
Once investors see the company's earnings with an update on their pipeline, they will likely bid the stock substantially higher.
Midday on Monday, the stock was trading down 5 cents, or 1.2% at $4.21.
This week’s Rocket Stocks portfolio also includes bullish trades on Apple (AAPL), AeroVironment (AVAV) and Potash (POT).
To find the snapbacks and potential breakouts on a regular basis, check out these Stockpickr portfolios, which I use in my own research each week:
Always check the Biggest Percentage Losers, a list of stocks that lost big the day before, because they can snap back hard.
When you check this list on Stockpickr, research which stocks are owned by the quality hedge funds and mutual funds. Pay attention to those. The funds will be buying at the lower prices and likely supporting the stock.
Ditto for the 52-week-low list. You must check the above two lists every day if you hope to find volatile stocks that can snap back
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: These are potential breakout plays.
Stocks With Unusual Options Activity: Perhaps someone knows something?
Latest Activist Situations: These are stocks that hedge funds are accumulating shares of and demanding change in. Believe me, these hedge funds piggyback each other. And once they start rocking the boat, things happen quickly. This should be on the must-view list.
One final place to frequent is the Answers section on Stockpickr, where ideas such as those presented in this article are thrown around daily. And you can further discuss your ideas and share opinions in Stockpickr's Member Forums section.
At the time of publication, Altucher had no positions in stocks mentioned.
Who’s on Stockpickr Answers? David MacDougall will be on Stockpickr Answers on March 9 to respond to investing and trading questions posed by members of the Stockpickr community. Not a member? Join the Stockpickr community today -- free.
P.S. Where is Jim Cramer putting his own money? Take a free peek at his personal portfolio to see all his buys and sells by clicking here. When you do, Jim will also send you exclusive email alerts telling you everything he’s about to add to or shed from his Action Alerts PLUS portfolio -- before he makes his trade.
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