Obama's Stimulus: 10 Ways to Play It - 23439 views

The recently signed stimulus bill is certainly a hot topic of conversation these days. However, vast assumptions vary among the media, the general public and even elected officials as to the size, scope and duration of its potential affect on the economy.

Recently, Jim Cramer said that the stimulus plan “does nothing to solve the housing crisis, nor anything to help unemployment, nor does it address the banking crisis.”

There are two points to make about the stimulus package in its current form:

1. Spending in actually dollars equates to $650 billion.

2. Tax cuts equate to $150 billion.

How is the spending broken down? And what equities might benefit?

Here are some of the ways the stimulus money is being spent, and some ways investors might be able to capitalize on it.

Agriculture, Nutrition and Rural Development: $26.9 billion, which includes $20 billion for government food stamps, $2.8 billion to expand broadband in rural areas and $4.1 billion for rural development.

Trade: Family Dollar Stores (FDO). As of September 2008, an estimated 14 million households relied on food stamps, an increase of approximately 17% from September 2007. More than 3,000 Family Dollar stores accept foods stamps nationwide. FDO just reported a 14% rise in quarterly profit and raised its fiscal-year forecast. For the quarter that ended Nov. 29, 2008, profit rose to $59.3 million, or 42 cents per share, from $51.9 million, or 37 cents per share, a year earlier.

Family Dollar was recently trading down a penny at $26.50.

Commerce, Justice and Science: $13.9 billion, which includes $2.8 billion to extend broadband, $3 billion for state and local law enforcement assistance and $3 billion in technology and research grants.

Trade: Axsys Technologies (AXYS), a global leader in the design and development of high-performance surveillance cameras. From 2004 to 2007, net sales rose from $78.2 million to $171.6 million, while operating income went from just $6.8 million t $23.3 million in that time period. Overall, the firm’s backlog, which is a measure of existing orders vs. current production levels, grew from $75.6 million to $140.2 million from 2004 to 2007.

Axsys was recently trading down 8.7% at $37.79.

Defense: $4.8 billion, which includes $4.8 billion for facility repair and energy projects.

Trade: General Dynamics (GD) and Raytheon (RTN), on recent positive new from the defense sector, particularly from these two stocks. For example, Raytheon expects earnings from continuing operations to grow as much as 10% to $4.45 to $4.60 per share in 2009.

Raytheon was recently trading up 1.4% at $46.24, while General Dynamics was down slightly at $52.78.

Energy and Water: $48.9 billion, which includes $18.5 billion for energy efficiency and renewable energy programs, $8 billion for federal loan guarantees for renewable-energy systems and electricity transmission, $17.4 billion for modernizing the nation’s electricity grid and $4.5 billion for the Army Corps of Engineers.

Trade: MasTec (MTZ). As of 2008, 60% of MasTec’s revenue came from the communication sector; this involves contracts with such companies as AT&T (T) and Charter Communications (CHTR). Utilities represented 34% of revenue; contacts included deals with such companies as XTO Energy (XTO). For the full year 2008, MasTec is on track to report revenue of $1.21 billion to $1.23 billion, a nearly 18% increase from its 2007 earnings. MasTec has a backlog, an important figurer when analyzing construction companies, of around 18 months deep, with a total value of $1.5 billion.

Mastec was recently trading up 0.4% at $10.27.

Environment and Interior: $14.3 billion, which includes $8.1 billion in state grants for water infrastructure projects and $6.2 billion for capital improvements toward national parks.

Trade: Calgon Carbon (CCC), a pure play in the water-purification sector. Calgon's products are used to remove organic compounds from air, water and other liquids. The company is ramping up its profitability, with analysts expecting the company to go from losing money last year to EPS of 16 cents this year and 30 cents the year after.

For a more diversified water play, the PowerShares Water Resources (PHO) ETF offers a way to play water infrastructure.

Calgon was recently trading down 3.3% at $14, and the PowerShares Water Resources ETF was down 1.1% at $11.78.

Health and Education: $91.3 billion, including $20.2 billion for the department of health and human services, $14.4 billion for employment training programs, $20 billion for elementary and secondary school renovations, $17 billion for grants and other student financial aid and $29 billion for education programs.

Trade: An interesting idea here is to short such education stocks as Corinthian Colleges (COCO), Strayer Education (STRA) and Apollo Group (APOL), based on the $29 billion the government will be giving away for education programs. Valuation for the sector is completely stretched, as seen in the market’s reaction toward Strayer Education on Thursday when the company forecasted a penny below expectations. At one point, Strayer was down more than $40 dollars.

Strayer was recently trading up 2.4% at $193.40, Apollo was up 1.5% at $82.20, and Corinthian Colleges was down 1.2% at $20.65.

Housing and Transportation: $62.3 billion, which includes $30 billion in highway construction, $16.1 billion in other transportation programs, $11.1 billion for housing assistance programs and $5.1 billion for community development grants to states and cities.

Trade: Astec Industries (ASTE), the single best way to play Obama's stimulus package, particularly with regards to the $30 billion or so that will be allocated toward road and highway pair. This under-the-radar name trades for just five times cash flows and sported 40% growth last year.

Astec was recently trading up 1.7% at $23.46.

Posted at 11:30 a.m. EST on Feb. 18, 2009

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