Behind the Headlines: Discount Retailers - 5716 views

To say we are in a market of historical dislocations is to state the obvious these days. Scandals, bailouts, failures and survivals top the headlines every day.

But if we look past the headlines to uncover the many companies not making the front covers, we can find some intriguing valuations and interesting stories. Some might offer indirect ways of entering a hot, new market, while others might offer compelling valuations vs. their more direct peers.

Understanding and interpreting the potential ramifications of each piece of news toward a particular sector or stock could lead to some hefty profits -- or to avoiding some hefty losses.

Weak Russian Ruble

On Thursday afternoon, the Russian Central Bank, commonly known as Bank Rossii, lent 7.7 trillion rubles, equating to $214 billion, in overnight and seven-day loans to defend the Russian ruble, which has lost 18% since Jan. 1 2009.

Currently, the Bank Rossii has a lower limit value of 41 for the ruble. A lower limit value with regards to a specific currency means that at a certain point, the central bank of that nation will step into the open market and actually start "defending," or buying, its own currency to support the price.

As history has shown, no central bank has ever been able to defend its own currency, particularly as mounting debts, lower revenue streams and political and social unrest brew.

Since August, Bank Rossii has spent a whopping $210 billion, or more than a third of its foreign-currency reserves, to support the ruble.

As the ruble continues to drop, expect Russian ADRs to suffer, as a lower ruble makes it more expensive for borrowers to pay back debt and fuels inflation.

A few Russian ADRs to watch are Mechel Open Joint Stock (MTL), Lukoil (LUKOY), Vimpel Communications (VIP) and Rostelecom (ROS).

Consumers Trade Down

Wal-Mart (WMT), the world’s largest retailer, said on Thursday that same-store sales rose by 2.1% in January as cash0strapped consumers traded down and continued to hunt for bargains.

These results beat Wal-Mart’s own estimates from a month ago for sales to be flat to up 2%.

It is safe to extrapolate Wal-Mart’s positive results onto the broader discounted retailers, particularly those that do not sell or stock massive amounts of retail inventory. As the consumer continues to trade down, companies such as Family Dollar Store (FDO), Dollar Tree (DLTR) and 99 Cents Only Stores (NDN) could benefit.

Recently, Family Dollar Store reported a 14% rise in quarterly profit and raised its fiscal-year forecast.  For the quarter that ended Nov. 29, profit rose to $59.3 million, or 42 cents per share, from $51.9 million, or 37 cents per share, a year earlier.

Akamai & F5 Networks

Shares of Akamai (AKAM) gapped higher by 18% on Thursday, as fourth-quarter profit climbed 13% surpassing analyst estimates. For the quarter, Akamai earned $40.5 million, or 22 cents per share versus $35.9 million dollars, equating to 20 cents per share in 2007.

Ultimately, a positive trend in Internet traffic could be a positive for F5 Networks (FFIV), one of Akamai’s competitors, and to a lesser extent, Level 3 Communications (LVLT), which lays the cable needed to improve such bandwidth.

For more ideas, check out the Behind the Headlines portfolio on Stockpickr.

Posted on Feb. 5, 2009

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