To say we are in a market of historical dislocations is to state the obvious these days. Scandals, bailouts, failures and survivals top the headlines every day.
But if we look past the headlines to uncover the many companies not making the front covers, we can find some intriguing valuations and interesting stories. Some might offer indirect ways of entering a hot, new market, while others might offer compelling valuations vs. their more direct peers.
This week, IBM (IBM) reported a 12% rise in fourth-quarter earnings, while also raising its 2009 earnings forecast to at least $9.20 per share in 2009, which compares with analyst estimates of $8.75. Gross margins improved substantially, while new client orders helped IBM earn $4.4 billion, or $3.28 a share, on revenue of $27 billion. During the same period a year ago, IBM earned $3.95 billion, or $2.80 a share, on $28.9 billion in sales.
Couple in Apple’s (AAPL) first-quarter EPS of $1.78, which fared substantially better than analysts’ estimate of $1.40, on $10.2 billion in revenue vs. estimates of $9.74 billion, and you can see how investors might have felt being bullish on technology stocks overall.
Wrong!
Microsoft (MSFT), while it did post a profit, shocked investors by pre-announcing earnings of 47 cents vs. analysts’ estimates of 49 cents cents. Profit for the second quarter ending Dec. 31 fell from $4.71 billion, or 50 cents per share, in 2007, to 45 cents on $4.17 billion in 2008.
Microsoft also said that it will be eliminating up to 5,000 jobs in research and development, marketing, sales, finance, legal, human resources and information technology over the next 18 months, including 1,400 jobs on Thursday alone. This amounts to about 5% of its estimated 96,000 work force, the biggest ever cuts by the software maker. Couple this with worse-than-expected earnings out of Nokia (NOK), and technology investors are truly lost.
Take a look behind these headlines at Adobe Systems (ADBE), which makes various flash components for Apple's iPhone, and STEC (STEC), which makes solid state drives for Apple's MacBook Air computers. Both names could benefit going forward.
We learned that China’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in seven years as the global recession limited growth initiatives. Gross domestic product grew 6.8% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, after a 9% gain in the previous three months, the statistics bureau said in Beijing.
Stockpickr's already offered several China stock ideas this week based off TheStreet.com's "China Watch" video series, but let's go even further behind the headlines.
Xinyuan Real Estate (XIN) is the under-the-radar-name here as the Chinese government looks to curb the economy slowdown and improve the overall quality of life in China. In the Chinese government's press-release regarding its $586 billion stimulus, the government specifically mentions improving living and housing conditions for middle to lower class families by 2010. That has Xinyuan written all over it.
Xinyuan is the leader in residential development in "second tier" cites. (In China, a second-tier city is one whose population is less than 5 million to 10 million.) The company just announced an 8% buyback. "The Board's authorization of this share repurchase program reflects our continued confidence in the long-term growth prospects of our company and China's real estate industry. We are committed to increasing shareholder value and we believe that our ADSs are presently undervalued in the marketplace," said CEO Yong Zhang
Mexico’s Senate and House of Representatives is seeking to cancel all current permits for pawn shops that are not charitable organizations. This is very similar to the recent Issue 5 bill passed in Ohio in November, which capped rates that lenders can charge to their customers on short-term loans at 28%.
First Cash Financial (FCFS), which operates a large portion of pawn shops in Mexico, could be affected by the demands of the Senate and House, even though it did just re-affirm its earnings estimate of $1.24 to $1.26 per share from continuing operations for the full year of 2008. This range represents an estimated earnings increase of 33% to 35% over the prior year.
Posted on Jan. 23, 2009
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