Rocket Stocks for the Week - 16045 views

As the major indices pulled back from technically overbought conditions, negative earnings forecasts from Wal-Mart (WMT) and Intel (INTC) and weak same-store-sales data from various retailers fueled the basis downward this week.

That said, there are still plenty of opportunities for nimble traders in this week’s Rocket Stocks portfolio.

Fortunately, last week’s Rocket Stocks portfolio was a massive outperformance for readers as our two long ideas, Family Dollar (FDO) and Robbins & Myers (RBN), surprised to the upside, and our short idea, Acuity Brands (AYI), lowered guidance and reported weak sales.

Let’s take a quick further look:

Long Robbins & Myers: Robbins & Myers closed the week up 13% after reporting fiscal first-quarter EPS of 50 cents, which beat analyst estimates of 42 cents. First-quarter revenue rose 3% to $178 million. The company expects second-quarter earnings of 40 cents to 50 cents, which is slightly ahead of analyst's estimates for 42 cents. However, management did lower its outlook to $1.80 to $2 per share for fiscal-year 2009, down from its previous forecast of $2.40 to $2.55 a share.

Robbins & Myers also bought back 2 million of its 3 million-share buyback last quarter at an average price of $19.50 per share. Orders for the year were down 5%, from $194 million in first-quarter 2008 to $185 million in first-quarter 2009, but sales were up 3%, from $174 million to $178 million, while the firm's backlog grew from $214 million to $224 million. I’d wait for a pullback into the mid-$17s to start a new position.

Long Family Dollar: Family Dollar closed the week up 10% after reporting a 14% rise in quarterly profit, and it raised its fiscal year forecast. For the quarter that ended Nov. 29, profit rose to $59.3 million, or 42 cents per share, from $51.9 million, or 37 cents per share, a year earlier. And with Wal-Mart lowering its earnings guidance, it looks as if Family Dollar might be taking market share from Wal-Mart.

Short Acuity: Acuity closed the week down 5% after adjusted operating profit came in at $55.8 million, or 82 cents per share, compared with an adjusted $69.5 million, or 93 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter. Management talked down its 2009 outlook, saying that it expects "demand from their core markets to be down."

First up in this week’s Rocket Stocks portfolio is Linear Technology (LLTC), a short idea.

Investors should either avoid or short shares of Linear Technology, a large-scale maker of semiconductors worldwide. Given the cyclical downturn in the economy, extreme competitive pricing among industry peers and Linear's high valuation, it is more than likely that the company will miss earnings this week. While valuation alone is never a solid reason to short a stock, Linear is caught in the crosshairs of brutal slowdown in sales coupled with increased industry output. Furthermore, Intel’s press release suggests a real lack of demand from end users, and weak iPhone channel checks show that Apple (AAPL) is no longer selling as many units as it had hoped for -- all of which paints a rather negative perfect for Linear.

Likewise, I would avoid Xilinx (XLNX), another semiconductor that will likely report lower gross margins next week.

Rumors are flying around Genentech (DNA) regarding a potential $95 bid from rival drug maker Roche. Roche, which already offered $89 for Genetech only to be rejected by Genetech’s board, has been rumored for several months to make a higher bid for Genetech. Most who follow Genentech’s pipeline believe that Roche will ultimately have to bid in the mid-$100 range to get the board and shareholders final approval.

Zep (ZEP) is the largest seller of vehicle cleaners in the U.S., selling to more than 75,000 auto-body repair shops. It reports on Monday, and given that the most-recent quarter saw EBIT of 2.8% and rising input costs, Zep will likely trade low throughout the week. Zep is also expensive by all valuation metrics, trading with a current P/E of 25 and EV/EBITDA of 9.6, all of which are well above the industry average. Zep just fired 5% of its total workers, as the company "unexpectedly began experiencing a significantly lower order rate in October as a result of general economic conditions while continuing to experience high raw material input costs."

For more ideas, check out this week’s Rocket Stocks portfolio on Stockpickr.

To find the snapbacks and potential breakouts on a regular basis, check out these Stockpickr portfolios, which I use in my own research each week:

Always check the Biggest Percentage Losers, a list of stocks that lost big the day before, because they can snap back hard.

When you check this list on Stockpickr, you can see which stocks are owned by the quality hedge funds and mutual funds. Pay attention to those. The funds will be buying at the lower prices and likely supporting the stock.

Ditto for the 52-week-low list. You must check the above two lists every day if you hope to find volatile stocks that can snap back

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: These are potential breakout plays.

Stockpickr's System Trades of the Day: These are trades triggering that day in various back-tested trading systems we've developed.

Stocks With Unusual Options Activity: Perhaps someone knows something?

Latest Activist Situations: These are stocks that hedge funds are accumulating shares of and demanding change in. Believe me, these hedge funds piggyback each other. And once they start rocking the boat, things happen quickly. This should be on the must-view list.

One final place to frequent is the Answers section on Stockpickr, where ideas such as those presented in this article are thrown around daily. And you can further discuss your ideas and share opinions in Stockpickr's Member Forums section.

By James Altucher. At the time of publication, Altucher had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Posted on Jan. 11, 2009

By:capitalistgorilla

Date: 01/12/09

Minor correction on LLTC: While I agree they are likely to miss revenue target, since their forecast was only 10-20% drop announced in October and others updated in December LLTC does not face short term price pressures as they repeatedly state.

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