With the holiday week upon us, traders and investors are expecting total market volume to be extremely light this week.
Generally speaking, holiday weeks have a positive basis upward in the capital markets, so if you want to go buy some Apple (AAPL) under $90 on the news that Steve Jobs will not be giving the key-note address at MacWorld, that seems smart. Or some General Electric (GE) at about $15 after S&P came out with a nonsensical credit watch on the company’s credit rating for 2009, that also seems smart.
But remember that this week, little financial bets will be made in the capital markets, and that is how I am positioning this week's Rocket Stocks portfolio.
Here is a recap of how last week’s Rocket Stocks ideas performed:
Long 3Com (COMS): Ended the week up 20% after reporting fiscal second-quarter profit of $12.9 million, or 3 cents a share, from a loss of $35.6 million, or 9 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding items, the company would have reported earnings of 12 cents a share, which is substantially higher than analysts’ estimates of 5 cents per share. 3Com was a long trade of the quarter that worked perfectly.
Long Stewart Enterprise (STEI): Ended the week down about 5% after reporting earnings of 8 cents per share, excluding a 27-cent-per-share goodwill impairment charge, a 9-cent-per-share estimated obligation on its cemetery trusts and an 8-cent-per-share tax valuation charge. Revenue rose 3.2% year over year to $130.4 million vs. $123.7 million. The quarter was complex in terms of excluded items. I’d keep an eye on this stock, but the $1 billion-plus in debt looming over its books is the real problem here.
Short Titan Machinery (TITN): Ended the week down about 20% after reporting earnings of 45 cents per share vs. the Street's view of 23 cents, and quarterly revenue was up 62%. However, if you back out the recent acquisitions of Wolf's Farm Equipment and Pioneer Garage, you get only $151 million in total revenue for the first nine months of the year, vs. $132.2 million from last year. That's only a 14.3% year-over-year increase in income, which certainly did not support Titan’s valuation of EV/EBITDA of 8.5. Profit margins did improve to more than 6% from 3% last quarter.
For this week's ideas, including Spyders (SPY), Research In Motion (RIMM) and U.S. Oil (USO), check out this week’s Rocket Stocks portfolio.
To find the snapbacks and potential breakouts on a regular basis, check out these Stockpickr portfolios, which I use in my own research each week:
The Daily Hot List: This must-view portfolio of what stocks are making moves and why is posted at midday each day.
Always check the Biggest Percentage Losers, a list of stocks that lost big the day before, because they can snap back hard.
When you check this list on Stockpickr, you can see which stocks are owned by the quality hedge funds and mutual funds. Pay attention to those. The funds will be buying at the lower prices and likely supporting the stock.
Ditto for the 52-week-low list. You must check the above two lists every day if you hope to find volatile stocks that can snap back
Biotech Short Squeezes: Dendreon and others can often be found in this category.Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: These are potential breakout plays.
Stockpickr's System Trades of the Day: These are trades triggering that day in various back-tested trading systems we've developed.
Stocks With Unusual Options Activity: Perhaps someone knows something?
Latest Activist Situations: These are stocks that hedge funds are accumulating shares of and demanding change in. Believe me, these hedge funds piggyback each other. And once they start rocking the boat, things happen quickly. This should be on the must-view list.
One final place to frequent is the Answers section on Stockpickr, where ideas such as those presented in this article are thrown around daily. And you can further discuss your ideas and share opinions in Stockpickr's Member Forums section.
By James Altucher. At the time of publication, Altucher had no positions in stocks mentioned.
Posted on Dec. 21, 2008
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