At Stockpickr.com, we strive to keep track of insider purchasing and buybacks each week. Here's the perfect setup in my mind: insiders buying the stock, the company buying back its own shares and a super-investor like Warren Buffett also buying shares. If I can get three out of three, I'm in heaven. If I can get two out of three, or even one out of three, I'm still pretty happy about the situation, particularly if the stock is cheap in other ways as well.
Each Thursday we update the Stockpickr Top 10 Insider Purchases and Buybacks portfolio, featuring stocks that recently have seen big insider purchases or new buyback programs as well as super investors accumulating shares.
For instance, Baidu.com (BIDU) is in this week's portfolio. The Chinese version of Google (GOOG) announced that it will repurchase up to $200 million worth of its own common stock by the end of 2009.
On Oct. 22, Baidu reported strong third-quarter results. The quarter was highlighted by robust net income, which sky-rocketed to $51.2 million, or $1.47 a share, a 91% increase from the same period last year. Total revenues increased 85.1% to $135.4 million. The number of online marketing customers increased to 194,000, or 7.2%, during the third quarter. As of Sept. 30, Baidu had $338 million in cash and equivalents.
Baidu's chairman and CEO, Robin Li, commented: "As China's leader in paid search, Baidu has a large and diverse customer base covering numerous industries and sectors. Such diversity gives us great stability and positions us to capture future growth. Companies throughout China are increasingly recognizing the value of Baidu's paid search as an effective marketing tool and we remain confident in our long-term growth potential."
It was also good to see that Baidu was upgraded at Goldman Sachs to conviction buy. Goldman expects that paid search will rise from around 2 basis points of Chinese GDP to a range of 9 basis points to 12 basis points, the range of most developed markets. Goldman expects Baidu to maintain market share and also increase search spending by around 30% per year for many years. The firm was also bullish on Baidu's $10 in cash per share. Goldman set the price target at $145.
We also took notice when we saw the D.E. Shaw Group buying shares of Baidu. Since its organization in 1988, the global investment firm has earned an international reputation for financial innovation and an extraordinarily distinguished staff. The D. E. Shaw group encompasses a number of closely related entities with more than 1,000 employees and approximately $50 billion in aggregate investment capital. Its other top stock picks include Pfizer (PFE) and Coca-Cola (KO).
Navellier & Associates is another successful investment firm that owns Baidu. Navellier is a $3.8 billion fund run by Louis Navellier, who has been dedicated to finding and exploiting inefficiencies in the stock market since 1980. Navellier's disciplined process is designed to identify stocks that should contribute significantly to overall portfolio outperformance against relative benchmarks. Its other top holdings include Potash (POT) and EnCana (ECA).
So we have a buyback, strong third-quarter earnings, an upgrade and two world-renowned investment firms buying shares. It might be time to do some more homework on Baidu.
Next on the list is Chubb (CB). The Warren, N.J.-based insurance company announced that it would buy back up to 20 million shares of common stock. Chubb, which is one of the largest business insurers, also said it would pay a regular quarterly dividend of 33 cents a share in January.
During the third quarter, Chubb bought back 5.9 million shares of its common stock at a total cost of $284 million. There were 3.4 million shares of common stock remaining under the current buyback plan as of Sept. 30.
John Finnegan, Chubb's chairman, president and CEO said: "The pace of the buyback will depend on the state of the global capital markets and the potential opportunities for profitable growth in the property and casualty insurance market."
On Oct. 23, the company reported third-quarter results with net income of $264 million, or 73 cents a share, compared with $738 million, or $1.87 a share, in the same period of 2007. Chubb estimates that catastrophe losses in the third quarter will be about $400 million. Most of these losses can be attributed to Hurricane Ike, which includes Chubb's share in the Texas Windstorm Insurance Association.
Chubb's counterparty credit rating was raised by Standard & Poor's Rating Services to A+ from A to reflect "reduced notching between the operating group and the holding company." In addition, S&P reaffirmed its AA counterparty credit and financial strength ratings on Chubb's operating insurance companies.
It's good to see that Dreman Value Management holds Chubb is its portfolio. David Dreman is the founder, chairman and chief investment officer of Dreman Value Management, which focuses on the assets of mutual funds, pension, foundation and endowment funds, as well as high net-worth individuals. The fund's Large Cap Value Fund has returned 17% annually on average, and its Small Cap Value Fund has returned 16.5% annually on average since the firm's inception in 1991. Its top holdings include ConocoPhillips (COP) and Devon Energy (DVN).
Dodge & Cox is another top-notch firm that owns Chubb stock. Dodge & Cox is a $100 billion investment fund founded in San Francisco in 1930. The firm provides investment management services to individuals, retirement funds and tax-exempt institutions. The firm has a long-term focus and employs a rigorous price discipline. Its Stock Fund has posted an annual average return of 14.5% over the past 10 years and 14.9% over the past 20 years, easily outperforming the S&P 500. Its other top stocks include Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Novartis (NVS).
So we have a buyback, a dividend, an upgrade in credit ratings and two investment firms buying stock. It might be time to take a closer look at Chubb.
For more stocks and analysis, check out this week's Top 10 Insider Purchases and Buybacks portfolio at Stockpickr.com.
For the 10 most-recent portfolios, check out:
Top 10 Insider Purchases and Buybacks LXXVI
Top 10 Insider Purchases and Buybacks LXXV
Top 10 Insider Purchases and Buybacks LXXIV
Top 10 Insider Purchases and Buybacks LXXIII
Top 10 Insider Purchases and Buybacks LXXII
Top 10 Insider Purchases and Buybacks LXXI
Top 10 Insider Purchases and Buybacks LXX
Top 10 Insider Purchases and Buybacks LXIX
Top 10 Insider Purchases and Buybacks LXVIII
Top 10 Insider Purchases and Buybacks LXVII
You can also review Barron's Top Insider Purchases from the prior week.
Posted on Dec. 18, 2008
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