By Stockpickr Guest Columnist Glen Bradford
If you're like me and you're afraid to margin, afraid to bet the market is going down and afraid that you're not going to be able to pay for [insert large expense here], have I got an all-or-nothing strategy for you. Remember, I'm in college, so I'm pretty much putting my head in the guillotine here, anticipating that there is hope and that there's money to be made.
Getting into this mess was the easiest thing I've ever done. All I had to do was buy undervalued growth companies. The good news is that these are the companies that are sold most when recession and depression fears spread like wildfire throughout the global marketplace, driving oil speculators home to their mommies and daddies.
I recently had the pleasure of seeing Ben Stein visit Purdue. He cited two steps to fixing this economic mess:
1. Have a New York court determine that credit default swaps are illegal and void of any value.
2. Have the U.S. government do what the European governments have already done and give three-year guarantees on interbank lending.
Ben Stein was asked what he'd be doing if he was young; he replied that he'd be buying stocks. He said he's never seen fear like this.
What am I doing? I've been on a three-step program. First, I started with a portfolio of undervalued growth companies, fairly diversified. Second, as markets started getting crushed, I slowly began pushing more money into the markets that are rocketing down the most but that I felt shouldn't be. Third, I'm actually selling stock -- and buying long options that expire January 2010 on the stock I'm selling. I generally only do this if it makes sense and the company reaffirms or keeps up with its expectations.
Three companies have caught my radar for this switch: Kinetic Concepts (KCI), Bucyrus (BUCY), and Central European Distribution (CEDC). Only CEDC got the call, though, because the calls are severely underpriced.
This type of bullish strategy isn't for everyone, and it's always a slow transition. I expect that it is within reason for the market to go down even more from this point. As it does, I will keep leveraging up, because, yes, I believe there is a bottom.
Disclosure: I am long KCI, BUCY, CEDC.
Posted on Oct. 27, 2008
Date: 10/28/08 |
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When you go broke, Glen, then I will know we have reached a bottom - keep me posted:) |
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