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Three Almost-Free Stocks - 59288 views
By Stockpickr Guest Columnist Glen Bradford
Ignorance must be bliss.
I was just reading an article claiming that the most undervalued companies include UnitedHealth Group (UNH), ConocoPhillips (COP) and News Corp. (NWS). The author cited price/fair value ratios of around 0.5.
If you're looking at stocks in this range, you're looking in the wrong place for value. There are some ridiculous deals out there right now. I've found companies with P/E ratios of about 2 that I'm interested in and price/fair value ratios less than 0.1.
Excited yet?
The global governments have been moving as I anticipated them to. They are putting out the credit market fire. Globally, interest rates are falling, commodity prices are falling, demand is falling, prices are falling -- the sky is falling. I've been calling up CFOs to investigate whether or not the companies I own are holding hostages, which I figure they might be because they're priced at fire-sale prices.
Jim Cramer says sell. Warren Buffett's pretty much all in already. I'm the one who enters positions when everyone's running.
What am I buying? I'm buying companies that are to benefit from the trends previously mentioned.
As commodity prices come down, that helps China because, as I understand it, China has to import most of its commodities. As interest rates fall, that encourages people to take out loans and buy homes. When prices fall, more people are willing to buy. Do you think that the demand is actually falling? Or do you think it's just that in the short-term, people are just waiting for the swing back?
I'm looking for the home run. The stocks I'm about to mention are not for the faint of heart. But when I feel like I'm robbing someone by buying their company ownership for pennies on the dollar, I figure I should point out that I'm doing so.
My two ridiculous China picks are real estate development company Xinyuan Real Estate (XIN) and Gold Horse International (GHII.OB), an engineering and construction company.
I look for long track records. Gold Horse's CEO has been doing this kind of stuff since 1979 and has built a community-focused company. Xinyuan has been exploding for the past five years and has been running since 1997.
My less-risky Latin America play is NII Holdings (NIHD), which provides digital wireless communication services. Also running since 1997, NII has been growing at 33% over the past five years. It has a P/E of around 9, but it should be 15 at least, and I'm shooting for 20-plus. Cell phones aren't a "want" anymore. Facebook groups abound with people who have lost theirs, and I'd imagine that they'd skip a day's worth of eating if they could get them back.
For those interested in my "less risky" ideas, you can find companies with 10-year high-performance track records and no signs of slowing down at GlenBradford.com.
I own XIN, NIHD, GHII.
Posted on Oct. 9. 2008
