By Stockpickr Guest Columnist Glen Bradford
Henry Paulson might as well be Howie Mandel from the the TV game show Deal or No Deal. The show's banker in this case would be the American public, and Paulson's family and friends would include President George Bush and Ben Bernanke. The Dow Jones would be reflecting the expected value of the bailout, including its probabilistic intrinsic value and emotional haywire.
Granted, the government isn't the best at making equity decisions, but nobody is being bailed out. There are no golden parachutes. Capitalism will still persevere. The last thing we need is Warren Buffett going around and taking advantage of more companies like General Electric (GE) and Goldman Sachs (GS).
Current stock prices for some great companies are reflecting absolutely no future growth. A good investment is one whose earnings grow faster than expectations -- and how difficult is it for good companies to beat 2% growth? In some cases, not very.
Here are four companies in particular priced to grow at less than 2% in the coming years. Are these a deal? Or no deal?
At $41.61, fertilizer company Agrium is priced to grow at 0.7%. It just crushed earnings expectations and historical standards. Beating them again like that isn't likely, but give the powerhouse hitter a break. I came across this company a couple of months ago and decided it was too expensive then at $90. It didn't make sense; there was too much optimism. Now there's too much pessimism. Deal.
Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) is in the same ballpark as Agrium. Trading at $45.60 implies future earnings growth at 0.5%. In my opinion, gold hit its high. Looking at this company from a 10-year perspective, it's really over the last three years that anything has happened here. Commodities love fear. Fear is at its pinnacle. As fear declines, so will the revenues of this company. No deal.
Helix Energy Solutions Group (HLX), an international offshore energy company, is priced at $20.85 to grow at 0.5%. Analysts have this company growing at about the same rate as its industry peers. Normally, I'd like this kind of company, but I understand the bailout is pushing for alternative energy sources. Oil is still too high. Get in cheaper. No deal.
Manitowoc Company (MTW), a global provider of construction equipment, is trading at a humiliating $14.02. This implies a negative growth rate of -0.7%. I see good news. Commodity prices are finally coming down. When it's getting cheaper to buy raw materials, construction booms. There's been a lot of canceling of infrastructure projects lately due to the lack of financing. Deal.
Check out my Web site GlenBradford for more ideas, and let's start capitalizing on fear.
My family owns AGU. I own MTW.
Posted on Oct. 5, 2008
By:adamiking |
Date: 01/14/09 |
Interesting |
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