devilfutility Speculative Biopharma picks
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Created by devilfutility
DESCRIPTION:

Date updated:09-25-2007

A while ago, I set up this portfolio with just GTXI, RDYN, and TRGT, just to get started on Stockpickr. I was kind of surprised to see that anyone looked at it. I don't think anyone liked it. So, anyhow, I figured I'd update it. When I created this portfolio I didn't own any shares in any of the companies listed here. Now, though, I am invested in everyone of these (though the size of each position kind of differs by a lot).

GTXI, RYDN, and TRGT are solely my finds - which might mean you should steer the hell away from them :-) (especially since I'm not a biologist or in any way connected to the healthcare field).

If I am to make a fortune in the stockmarket it will be done on the back of Biotechnology. I have a more conservative (more cramer approved) set of stocks as well. I am however a Kurzweilian and I believe that the future is biotechnology, nanotechnology, robotics, and artificial intellilgence. I think it's probably too early to get involved in any of these except for biotechnology (at least in a big way).

As mentioned in the porfolio description, I went looking for Biotechs. I've been doing this for a while now. Previously I found Dendreon. I bought shares in Dendreon (DNDN) before it got super-hyped on CNBC and before I ever heard anything about from Cramer. Although, it was this year and I had read Adam Feuerstein's articles where he mentioned it. I kind of stumbled on it, when the former CFO of Affymetrix left for Dendreon. I bought about 2000 dollars worth of shares at about $5.23. I also got 3 friends to buy into it as well. We all made a lot of money in the company (for us). I sold most of my shares at about $22 a piece. We sold most of our shares in the $20 range.

After Dendreon, I poured through a whole slew of biotech stocks. I narrowed it down to 8, and of those 8 I came up with GTXI, RDYN, and TRGT as companies I was interested in buying now.

(I'll check for typos, spelling errors, and grammatical mistakes gradually. I'll also gradually expand on my reasons... maybe ...)

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • GTXI
    Gtx
  • $13.92
  • -1.14%
  • $13.78

This company is working on a product to treat patients with Prostrate Cancer called Acapodene. Data is due to be released soon. Anyway, this drug is being tested to treat symptoms and to see if it can prevent the onset of prostrate cancer. I've listened to the calls where they defended the trials and said the trials were overpowered - coming off the Dendreon experience that sounded like a good thing. I think the company is in good shape financially. (I dismissed a lot of biotech companies for looking like they didn't have enough cash). GTXI should be able to cash in on Acapodene should it get approved. I actually don't own this stock, but own some options instead (it's my first venture into options - I probably overpaid and got it with too short of a timeline).

People owning GTXI also tend to own: ADPAXPAZOBAXCMCSAEMCFDC

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • RDYN
    Replidyne
  • $1.15
  • -3.36%
  • $1.16

Ok, so I'm not sure why Replidyne is even considered a biotech company. They seem like a regular pharmaceutical company. I don't really care though. Anyhow, they are developing antibiotics in what they termed the '4th type' of antibiotics. Apparently there are not too many antibiotics approved for use in this fourth type right now. They are in phase 3 trials with Faropenem and data is due early next year. The FDA decided to make them do another trial and their partner, Forest Labs, backed out on them. The stock is still where it was after that. Anyway, I think their trial will be successful. The drug is already approved in Japan (in a different form), and they thought they already had good data once. So, despite the adversity, I think the company is actually in better position than they were before. They can get most of the revenues for the drug. Granted its an antibiotic so competition will be tougher than for some of the other companies listed here should their drugs get approved.

People owning RDYN also tend to own: EXELGTXIIDEVSVNTTRGTAXCABPT

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • EXEL
    Exelixis Inc
  • $4.50
  • -1.53%
  • $4.46

This was actually the second biotech company I ever bought - the first was Amgen which I no longer hold. I heard about this on one of those Fox news Saturday Morning program. I think I probably heard about it from the Motley Fool Rule Breaker guy whose been pimping it ever since. Anyway, I like Exelixis because it's got this big pipeline, and lots of good partnerships. So far they are mostly into Oncology - and I believe that cancer wil really be put down by 2020.

People owning EXEL also tend to own: AMDPDLITASRAMMDARRYBVFCAH

TheStreet.com Rating: D- What is this?

  • +
  • TRGT
    Targacept
  • $4.54
  • -6.97%
  • $4.79

TRGT is one of my new picks. I like it because it looks like Exelixis used to. They have a big pipeline for a small company and an impressive partnership with Astrazeneca. They seemed to be persuing a very Exelixis like strategy - however they are into neurology rather than oncology. They just signed a new deal with Glaxo Smith Kline. One funny thing to note is I've seen motley fool articles consider they're 200 million dollar market cap high - even though they should like it given that they like Exelixis. I compare this to other Biotech stocks with this kind of a pipeline and I do not believe it is anything like high. I think this company should be worth 500 million on the strength of its pipeline and partnerships. That would still put it about 1/2 of the value of Exelixis.

People owning TRGT also tend to own: ACEYF.PKAUYAVANAVGNBHPDFCDNDN

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • IDEV
    Indevus Pharma In
  • $2.33
  • -7.54%
  • $2.46

Well, it seems that Indevus is probably the biggest loser of these 4. They apparently overpaid for some company, and they seem to be having problems selling some of their drugs - too much competition apparently. I think Indevus will eventually claw its way to a better competitive position and will probably be bought out at some point. In the mean time, I expect continued struggle and not much help when they release data from their pipeline.

People owning IDEV also tend to own: AKNAKSBJSDHIESVHOFFPHM

TheStreet.com Rating: E+ What is this?

  • +
  • SVNT
    Savient Pharm Inc
  • $11.93
  • -5.84%
  • $12.46

If you watch Cramer you know he pushes this one on their Gout drug - Puricase. It's their only product though.

People owning SVNT also tend to own: ABTAEZSAMRIAVGNBIIBBMYDNDN

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

 

Start Price

Return Value

Start Date

GTXI 14.77 -5.75% Aug 2nd
RDYN 5.29 -78.26% Aug 2nd
EXEL 9.53 -52.78% Aug 2nd
TRGT 9.65 -52.95% Aug 2nd
IDEV 7.15 -67.41% Aug 2nd
SVNT 13.90 -14.17% Aug 2nd

Average return:

-41.05%

Success rate:

0%

Deleted Stocks:

BMRN 17.95 +16.04% Aug 2nd
SNUS 5.05 ------ Aug 2nd

Tracking Started: 08-02-2007

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