Date updated:07-09-2007
First plunge into serious picks

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NVS
Novartis Ag Ads - $56.16
- +1.01%
- $56.15
The healthcare sector will benefit from demographics in the US as population ages. NVS is a pharma company with a broad portfolio of drugs and has a solid pipeline of new products on the way. I think this stock has been penalized recently. It is solid financially and even though the pharma market faces the potential for governments regulations in the US that will be aimed at squeezing margins, the demographics will still provide opportunities for sales and margin growth.

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BAX
Baxter Intl Inc - $55.22
- +1.23%
- $54.68
Another Healthcare play. I like BAX because it provides more than simply pharmaceuticals, it also provides the more mundane, basic supplies that medical facilities use on a daily basis which lessens it's dependence on developing new products. It offers diversification in it's product offerings. Financially, it has low debt and improving margins over the last 2 years.

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TMO
Thermo Fisher Sci - $47.89
- +1.40%
- $47.61
Also healthcare, provides tools for bioscience companies. I see this as a way to profit from medical research by providing tools for research rather than taking on the actual risks associated with clinical research. It is still in the process of absorbing acquisitions, which should provide opportunities to reduce S, G, and A expenses to increase earnings per share. The stock is undervalued currently in my opinion.

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RAI
Reynolds American - $50.84
- +1.76%
- $50.34
This is a consumer products play that provides an excellent dividend yield. It has excellent cash flow and financial strength and should hold up well if the overall equity market softens.

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PCU
Southern Copper C - $35.28
- +1.26%
- $35.43
This is a mining company that provides good dividend yields and which will benefit from increasing demand in China and India for copper. I select this also as a defensive play. It has had an significant upward trend in net margins and margin on equity over the past year. I am betting that demand will continue to increase for it's products enough to keep revenue growth going. Consolidation in the industry will provide pricing power to the producers and PCU will be one of the survivors in the consolidation wars in this industry.

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CERN
Cerner Corporatio - $76.62
- +1.77%
- $75.82
Ithis is an IT provider for healthcare providers that should be in position to capitalize on the move to electronic record keeping for medical providers. I believe that this is seen by legislators as the key to reducing the expenses associated with medical care in the US and that legislation and market forces will increase demand for their services.

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ERF
Enerplus Res Fd - $23.06
- +0.65%
- $22.97
This oil and gas investment trust has taken steps to secure additional sources of resources and plans to invest $415 M in 2007 to increase production. ERF has historically made very efficient use of capital and maintained superior operating margins. These factors should result in increased revenues and profits by year end, particularly if market prices increase. Increased worldwide demand for oil and gas should support higher prices. Dividend yield has been exceptional historically.

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VOX
Vangrd Tel Svc Et - $54.91
- +1.99%
- $54.34
FTF (Communications) The communications sector stands to benefit from improvements in wireless and wired technologies. Barriers to market entry are fairly significant. I like an ETF as an investment vehicle because of the level of competition in the market. Very hard to see who longer term winners and losers are going to be so why choose? I can also enter a trailing stop loss to prevent a major loss. Increasing bandwidth capacity will be needed in order to feed the wants and needs of technophobes. I also see a need the need for real time business data backup as a driver of growth in years to come.
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A. The beige book said that conditions had
"generally improved modestly".
There were positive signs, e.g. consumer
spending, used autos, etc. Even though
residential construction was weak, it
was reported to be improving.
How you trade this depends on whether
you think the glass is half empty or
half full. I think it's a mixed report
but if you're in a bull market, that
might be enough to sustain an upward
bias.
This kind of mixed report, with both
good and bad aspects, is normal when an
economy is coming out of a recession.
Not everything turns around at the same
time. The market is looking ahead and is
anticipating more favorable conditions
in the future.
db
A. The only one I own : SLX,
too hard pick a winner out all of them
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