Who Will Cisco Buy Next?
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average rating: 3.50 / 6 ratings
Created by James Altucher
DESCRIPTION:

Date updated:03-16-2007

CSCO has always built itself through acquisitions. The original growth story of CSCO was a thing of beauty. Imagine this: lets say everyone in the world lived on a one-person island. Finally, someone came along and built bridges for everyone. They had the monopoly on it and they sold bridges to everyone. Everyone! That was CSCO with their original routers that one by one connected computers up to the internet all through the 90s. The cash flows from that allowed them to buy companies, often startups for tens of billions that allowed them to quickly become leaders in various other segments of the communications industry. In particular, they bought several fiber-optic startups that allowed them to compete in the broadband bandwidth space. They also bought wifi startups that got them into last-mile broadband connectivity.

More recently, with the acquisition of WEBX in particular, it looks like they are taking a different tact – buy established leaders in industries that can extend their services through the corporate enterprise. They don't want to just be the nuts and bolts connecting the computers, they want to store the data on those networks (through their just announced acquisition of Neopath) and they want to dominate the communication that occurs between the humans behind those computers, hence a mature acquisition like WEBX.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • AKAM
    Akamai Technologi
  • $23.32
  • +2.06%
  • $22.77

When the Internet was just blossoming, it was simply enough to get your info from your computer out into the world beyond. And that is what CSCO was great at. But now with the audience fully matured and demanding video (e.g. WEBX), the companies that speed up the last mile of transmission of web content will become increasingly valuable. AKAM is the leader in this. They take content (for instance, your website), take it off of your local hosting service and distribute it across the world so that whoever wants your content will have as few hops as possible before finding it. At 15x cash flows trades in line with where WEBX is trading at CSCO's acquisition price.

People owning AKAM also tend to own: CMGFCXGOOGJECRIGTJXAPA

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • JCOM
    J2 Global Communi
  • $21.82
  • +0.74%
  • $21.41

JCOM is also an interesting play here. JCOM provides internet faxing (they used to be called JFax), conference calling, and other CRM services. A combination WEBX/JCOM would be a true unified communications platform for the enterprise. Similar to AKAM above, and WEBX, JCOM trades at 15 times cash flows. They have $156mm cash in the bank with no debt so the balance sheet is pristine. Last year they had EBITDA of$78mm and 21% revenue growth. This year, analysts are estimating revenues to grow from $181mm to $222mm. Substantial growth for a company that is trading at only a slightly above average P/E compared to the market-at-large.

People owning JCOM also tend to own: AMDBMYCAGFMSMROUNHIDCC

TheStreet.com Rating: B- What is this?

  • +
  • BRCD
    Brocade Communica
  • $8.99
  • -1.32%
  • $9.00

Brocade is in the front line in providing sophisticated storage solutions into the corporation. They provide the software, the switches, the bandwidth,the hardware know how to build clusters, mirroring, backups, etc. CSCO has been building out its storage with its latest acquisition of neopath but I think a buy of BRCD would make it game over. BRCD trades at 17 times cash flows but they will probably double those cash flows over the next year,making an acquisition quickly accretive. Analysts expect revenues to grow from 1.3bb this year to $1.6bb next.

People owning BRCD also tend to own: CEBAYEMCFCFSFLEXGEGME

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • AV
    Aviva Plc
  • $12.7625
  • 0.00%
  • $N/A

Avaya is a direct competitor with CSCO in the entprise. CSCO can buy them, scoop up their customers, and the acquisition will be immediately accretive. AV trades at just 6x cash flows, in part, because CSCO cominates them across the industry. With $900mm cash in the bank, $650mm in cash flows, and only a $4bb enterprise value this is just chump change for CSCO and cheap.

People owning AV also tend to own: ABTABXAAMZNANDWBAXBIOMCOP

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • MFE
    Mcafee
  • $42.31
  • +0.50%
  • $41.81

If CSCO is routing the data around, storing it, etc then it makes sense they will want to secure it. MFE provides solutions for both companies and consumers to build firewalls, seek out and destroy intrusions, protect against viruses, etc. With $1.2bb cash in the bank, $300mm in ebitda, and an enterprise value of $3.45bb, this acquisition would be immediately accretive to CSCO.

People owning MFE also tend to own: CTXSSYMCABNAIGBKCERJEWJ

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • RACK
    Rack
  • $0.00
  • N/A
  • $N/A

No Analysis added

People owning RACK also tend to own: AAPLBACGOOGINTCMSFTCTXSDIS

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • SUNW
    Sunw
  • $0.00
  • N/A
  • $N/A

No Analysis added

People owning SUNW also tend to own: AAPLAMDCSCODELLGOOGIBMINTC

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

 

Start Price

Return Value

Start Date

AKAM 51.43 -54.66% Mar 16th
JCOM 27.79 -21.48% Mar 16th
BRCD 9.77 -7.98% Mar 16th
AV 11.73 +8.80% Mar 16th
MFE 29.30 +44.40% Mar 16th
RACK 16.63 ------ Mar 16th
SUNW 6.22 ------ Mar 16th

Average return:

-6.18%

Success rate:

40%

Tracking Started: 03-16-2007

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