What to plant in a drought...
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Created by seabanker
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Date updated:07-22-2008

All selections are US-listed.

I chose some for value and defensible market positions, like the airport operators in Mexico.

I chose some as a hedge against rising energy prices, such as Cameco and Petrobras.

I chose telcos and utilites in South America, with an emphasis on high operating leverage (you just can't stop EM electrification and the phones, even when the chips are down in the States).

A few consultancies are benefiting from government contract accumulation and restructuring assignments.

7/22/08 - Commodity exposure is limited. I believe oil will trend downward toward $100 through 2H08 and coal will follow. I also believe this is the last year of iron ore price increases, although I don't believe it will plummet in the '09 price renegotiation.

I plan to add some exposure to discounted mortgages and real estate assets, although finding this in listed equities is difficult to do from a diligence perspective unless the company has been formed recently to acquire assets.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • ASR
    Grupo Aeroportuar
  • $35.81
  • -5.76%
  • $36.65

Airport development and operation in Southeastern Mexico. Zero debt. EBITDA margins >50%, continuing margin improvement. Recent capex to modernize Cancun airport, add automated baggage screening system at all airports.

People owning ASR also tend to own: JBLUAERTMGMPCBCCHTTJAKKAAPL

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • PAC
    Grupo Aeroportuar
  • $18.13
  • -6.45%
  • $19.37

Airport development and operation on Pacific coast of Mexico. Zero debt. EBITDA margins >50%, continuing margin improvement.

People owning PAC also tend to own: AAPLBAMCFCNQCNR.TOCRESYCSX

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • TEF
    Telefonica Sa
  • $53.48
  • -10.52%
  • $56.23

Diversified telecommunications company operating in Spain, Europe and Latin America ROE > 40%. Improving YoY margins. Double digit revenue growth.

People owning TEF also tend to own: AKAMAMDAMTDCIENCSCOEMCEWS

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • ICFI
    Icf International
  • $18.24
  • +1.00%
  • $17.77

2,000 professional consultants to government. Federal government clients have included the HHS, DOD, EPA, DHS, DOT, DOJ, HUD, and DOE. 24% 5-year Revenue CAGR. 32% 5-year EBITDA CAGR. ROE >30%.

People owning ICFI also tend to own: HEPHMRVLNMXNYXSHLDTMAAPL

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

  • +
  • PZE
    Petrobras Energia
  • $6.64
  • -19.22%
  • $8.10

Brazilian oil and gas exploration and production, refining and distribution, petrochemicals, and gas and energy. It conducts operations in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.

People owning PZE also tend to own: BAMBHPGLDGMOIBNINTVMIC

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • TNE
    Tele Norte Lest
  • $11.45
  • -14.62%
  • $12.58

Brazilian telecom company. ROE improvement YoY. Leverage < 1.5x.

People owning TNE also tend to own: FTEGGBHBM.TONRDS.PKAVBAKCHINA

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • FCN
    Fti Consulting In
  • $57.18
  • -6.05%
  • $60.39

Restructuring-focused consultancy. 33% 2-year EBITDA CAGR. 37% 2-year Revenue CAGR.

People owning FCN also tend to own: BECNGSICGTOPPNKPYXTFRTOA

TheStreet.com Rating: A What is this?

  • +
  • CCJ
    Cameco Cp
  • $13.56
  • -9.60%
  • $14.86

Uranium mining and refining. 5-yr EBITDA & Revenue CAGR >18%.

People owning CCJ also tend to own: AAPLBRCMBTUCNQCTRPGGGOOG

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

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Start Price

Return Value

Start Date
ASR 47.90 -25.24% Aug 22nd
PAC 45.28 -59.96% Aug 22nd
TEF 70.84 -24.51% Aug 22nd
ICFI 21.16 -13.80% Aug 22nd
PZE 8.95 -25.81% Aug 22nd
TNE 19.53 -41.37% Aug 22nd
FCN 52.66 +8.58% Aug 22nd
CCJ 40.38 -66.42% Sep 3rd
AMX 60.95 -52.47% Sep 17th
CPL 51.46 -26.74% Sep 17th

Average return:

 -29.79%

Success rate:

 10%

Deleted Stocks:
TMX 34.90 0.00% Sep 17th

Tracking Started: 08-22-2007

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