Date updated:09-22-2008
Resources:
Finviz.com
Investors.com
Zacks.com
online.wsj.com
bloomberg.com
gurufocus.com
marketwatch.com
smallcapinvestor.com
istockanalyst.com
schaeffersresearch.com
stockprofit.com
investerms.com
zacks.com
thestreet.com
shortsqueeze.com
Recent successful trades (Bought and Sold in past 60 days):
Alon (ALJ)- Traded this refiner based on insider activity, and hurricane IKE aftermath for a 27% gain in less than two weeks.
WAB- strong rsi and momentum following earnings reported, but sold the stock fearing a top, and weakening momentum in the rail sector.
TIE - following unusual options activity (started by a a Sanford reseach note)
NVDA
TC
TRLG
Buying TEX pre-earnings announcement
Mistakes:
Humana (HUM)- learned my lesson that there is a steap and never ending discount to these managed health companies because of the lack of visibility these companies can provide due to actuarial estimates and reimbursement rates. Rolled the loss into Terex before earnings which should more than make up for it.
Cemex (CX)- Despite growth in Latin America, there is still the U.S overhang and raw material costs are increasing too much. Plus, go with consensus in a stock like this because it is widely owned.
Buying Navios (NM), do not buy dry bulk shippers that are not pricing the contracts at spot rates. Analyst have raised their EPS numbers to reflect increases in the spot, and thus they shippers are likely to dissapoint.
Buying China Telecom (CHL) and Unicom (CHU) on government restructuring. Shareholders didn't get a good deal, and the premium was not much.
When gold was rallying past $900, Buying Iamgold (IAG) as a proxy for gold prices. Don't pay attention to valuations or stock prices when it comes to gold. Pay attention to production growth and the cost of extraction.

-
NOV
Natl Oilwell Varc - $23.42
- -18.40%
- $25.12
(33.41 split adjusted, 8% of portfolio) This is a core long term holding, that I consider to be one of the anchors of my portfolio and I do not trade in this position. Offshore Rig technology company, stealing market share from competitors, strong backlog, and earnings per share growth, one of the top performers in the sector

-
EMR
Emerson Elec Co - $33.38
- -1.82%
- $32.56
There is a lot of horizontal support at $50, and patience will pay off with long term investors $CA at this level. However, there is no catalyst for this stock near term, and conglomerates are out of favor right now due to slowing international growth. For now, I am doing nothing with this position expecting that it will continue to settle at this level.

-
DV
Devry Inc - $44.49
- +1.44%
- $42.24
New Position Basis: 56.96 The earnings miss in now warring-off, and the education stocks trade in a cohort. If you look at all the other numbers from ITT, Apollo and the rest of them they beat earning and the stock have been in a steady uptrend. As long as the other players in this sector have technical strength, there is no reason to liquidate this position. Other than that, the earnings miss was a result of many one-time events that are not recurring. Operational trends like enrollment growth were above consensus. If anything, I would be adding to a position here, at $50.

-
OMG
Om Group Inc - $15.29
- +5.52%
- $13.82
Swing trade from the 11% weekly gain in Titanium Metals. OM Group's chart looks appealing here. The stock had a viscous sell off post Q4 and Q1 earnings reports, and following a 50% correction the stock seemed to have bottomed at $30, and rallied conversely to the market. Earnings reports are backward looking, and for OM Group the earnings hinged mainly on the cost of Cobalt. Now that Cobalt prices are recovering from their decline, margins will improve and because earnings were already cut, they should be easy to beat. Basis: 36.92

-
RDEA
Ardea Biosciences - $11.03
- +34.51%
- $7.89
Speculative Biotec play, recent insider purchases, developments in phase 2 trial of RDEA 806 which will proceed with a phase 2b trial and its efficacy will be compared with with an existing compound from Bristol Myers Squibb. ($15.59, 3%)

-
HES
Hess Cp - $52.92
- -1.08%
- $48.31
This stock rolls with oil, Might buy in at $95. I originally started this position, because of options and volume activity on 4/14, when Petrobras announce an oil find off the coast of Brazil. This stock catches all the upside of rising crude, and doesn't pullback as much when crude falls because of the support at $100. Presumably this support level will hold as long as crude stays above $110. Longterm this is a great holding because reserves could double in the future as they bring production on line in places like the Tupi oil field off the coast of Brazil. ($101.56, 5%)

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SFY
Swift Ergy (hldg - $23.30
- -5.48%
- $22.86
A dirt cheap stock with exposure to domestic crude oil and natural gas resources. S&P maintains 5 star rating after earnings report.

-
PCP
Precision Castpar - $54.15
- -7.36%
- $56.70
Reported a good not great quarter, but did mention that earnings and rev growth will pick up when 787 production begins Good derivative trade on the 787 backlog. This has been a tough losing position to hold, but there is consolidating trading range ($95-100) and it is possible that PCP breaks higher. Increased Position: 109.78
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