Date updated:09-23-2007
Stocks I have read about on Stockpickr and elsewhere that I would like to know more about or track just to get a little better, especially at picking and deciding on a sell discipline.

-
BAS
Basic Energy Srvc - $11.55
- -12.70%
- $12.67
Third largest drilling service fleet operator - has only been public since 2005 or 2006 - still pretty small but appears pretty fairly priced to me right now (9/1/07) at 20.67 - P/E forward is 8.07, Growth rate for next year is 13.05 five year projected is 15.5 - PEG .58 - Missed estimates for both Mar and Jun, Mar growth was 5.7%, June was -18% - Using projected estimates, EPS for 2007 should be around 2.25 (1.08 already) + 1.16 for the next two quarters (.58 each) - target price at a PEG of 1 would be 29.25, 58.50 at a PEG of 2

-
IRM
Iron Mountain (de - $20.97
- -7.46%
- $22.35
9/1/07 price 28.60 - look for entry price around 24 based on 2008 estimate of .91. Document storage for corporate and government entities - expanding into international markets also into technology backup type storage. Revenue growth has almost doubled in the last five years, and EPS growth has more than doubled (from.30 to .68) with estimates of about .75-.77 for FY2007. Beat estimates for Mar and Jun 2007. 10 analysts - tight estimates Forward P/E for 2007 is about 36, with an estimated growth rate of 17% - five year growth rate is estimated to be 21%, but previous 5 years is around 15 - I am considering 17% to be more realistic - therefore PEG is slightly over 2. Since earnings and cash flow are predictable (monthly fees from current customers as the government requires more and more documents to be archived securely for long periods of time, revenues will rise fairly predictably for those customers), I think a slight premium could be paid; however, acquisition of customers for the "soft" storage and for international may not be as predictable (more competition for backups, and integration of international acquisitions could have problems - Therefore I would look to enter at a PEG of about 1.5 to the 17% growth figure

-
AVAV
Aerovironment - $28.25
- -5.30%
- $29.34
Maker of unmanned flying vehicles for military. Founded in 1971, but just came public in 2006 - has a 16M contract with the Danish Army and also with the US Army. P/E forward is about 18 - growth estimated at 16 for 2008 - five-year growth estimated at 22. Price seems well in-line with growth.

-
NBG
Natl Bk Greece Ad - $4.20
- -10.83%
- $4.50
National Bank of Greece - based in Athens - Greece's largest lender - recently bought Turkey's Finansbank - profit up 61% in the first half of 2007 - offices outside Greece in Serbia, Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, Macedonia, Turkey, Egypt, and Serbia - an integrated bank with commercial, investment, and consumer banking, and insurance, as well as non-financial servicing in hotels, warehouses, real estate, property management and IT and business consulting. 2.3% dividend with plenty of room for increases - each ADR = 5 ordinary shares. Dividend paid annually in May or June. Risks - growth through acquisition, especially acquisition of a Turkish bank, given the Greek/Turkish conflicts for hundreds of years - also overpayment for the Turkish bank - need to watch out for further dilutive acquisitions (paid 3.7X book, plus had to issue new equity for the purchase which caused ROE to decline from 22 to 15%. P/E - 17.4, Forward P/E 11.1, 5-year growth rate 23% (next year 17%), PEG is less than 1 at price on 9-22-07 at 12.56
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A. so.....if fed thinks its okay for USB to
pick up the tab for 2 of the
banks....should you still be worried
about USB? i might add that one to my
financials that i'm collecting.
A. small trading before thrusday
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