The Bear devours Goldilocks
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Created by Seth Plarman
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Date updated:04-29-2007

What I plan to do when the market really corrects. Is it going to happen this week, likely not. And maybe we temporarily reach new highs in the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ, but it won't last long. This is the scenario I'm watching for: Inflation spikes; the sub-prime fungus, as D. Kass calls it, consumes Alt-A lenders and triggers credit-tightening; an LBO sours due to credit shock; hedge funds abandon their positive, short-busting bias and melt 5-10% from the market in a hurry, followed by mutual fund withdrawls + retail panic selling. I hope none of the above occurs, but when it does, here's how I play my hand.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • QID
    Ps Utlrshrt Qqq
  • $20.65
  • -0.82%
  • $20.69

The NASDAQ is the most vulnerable of the indexes when a correction comes. This vehicle shorts it 2x. I would be a buyer at current levels-- under $52. At $50, which it's breached only temporarily, it's a steal.

People owning QID also tend to own: BRK-BKRYSLWTUESCROXDVNERTS

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  • +
  • TWM
    Ultrashort Russel
  • $28.46
  • +0.04%
  • $28.09

Small caps have outperformed their larger bretheren considerably over the course of this secular bear. While I believe in finding select small caps to invest in, the index's valuation is simply not sustainable-- correction or no. Like QID, TWM shorts the index, the Russell 2000, x2.

People owning TWM also tend to own: BRKBDXDUSGAAVABXAUYCHK

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  • +
  • KEWL.PK
    Keweenaw Lnd Assn
  • $165.00
  • +0.61%
  • $165.00

This is a company that will not flinch in a downturn. Timberlands are a great investment in any market, no matter how over or under valued equities are. Given the company's quality timber stands, real estate, and mineral rights, it is largely unaffected by the deteriorating economy. Futhermore, timber historically outpaces equity markets by a substantial margin in bear markets...see J. Grantham's writings on timber for specifics.

People owning KEWL.PK also tend to own: ECAIRBTMOSMRONHWKNRTOHI

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  • +
  • IRBT
    Irobot Corporatio
  • $14.83
  • +1.64%
  • $14.48

Small caps as a whole will get punished in a correction, but that doesn't mean I don't like a few names. IRobot is one of them-- with excellent numbers expected in 2008 (when they roll out several more military products), the company will be a major player in the growing field of robotics for years to come. I'd rather get in now, before some breakthrough sends the shares flying (or another company swallows their military division).

People owning IRBT also tend to own: ACGLADSATHRAVCTCCOIEBAYFTWR

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

 

Start Price

Return Value

Start Date

QID 51.55 -59.94% Apr 7th
TWM 65.84 -56.77% Apr 7th
KEWL.PK 184.00 -10.33% Apr 7th
IRBT 14.63 +1.37% Apr 7th

Average return:

-24.84%

Success rate:

25%

Hated Stocks:

RATE 36.67 -22.25% Apr 15th
MSFT 30.12 -1.10% Apr 29th

Tracking Started: 04-07-2007

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