Date updated:10-04-2007
This is an eclectic portfolio, not completely balanced, but only includes US listed names. It contains value plays, faster growth companies, M&A targets, and other thematic, special situations. It has small, medium, and large cap names, but is missing out on some industries that I'd like to gain exposure to. The positions are not completely equal weighted. Furthermore, some are trades, some are investments, and includes a few investments that were sold, and which I will look to repurchase again. Generally, stronger leaning to value investment style, with a focus on net cash or low debt companies, that trade cheap on either P/E, P/Book, or EV/EBITDA, hopefully with either an impending catalyst, activist shareholder or a secular trend to provide impetus.
FYI, formulae referenced in commentary as one type of valuation metric that I consider (not a must have though):
Ben Graham value criteria: (Price/Book)x(Price/2007 Est. Earnings) < 22.5
David Merkel value criteria: Price/[(Book Value)+(5x2007 Est. Earnings)] < 1.0
Feel free to leave any comments if you'd like.

-
ANPI
Angiotech Pharma - $0.37
- -5.13%
- $0.40
Cheap biotech; added AMI acquisition to diversify revenues; eventually either turns around, or gets taken out itself; meets Graham/Merkel criteria as a deep value play

-
BYD
Boyd Gaming Corp - $4.85
- -6.37%
- $5.23
Expensive on a P/E basis, but cheapest large casino player on a P/CF basis. Decent national footprint, including Borgata jewel, and strong expansion plans through 2010. Given recent private equity activity, seems as reasonable target; large debt load though. Boyd family holds 30%, would only allow a deal at a substantial premium.

-
CVS
Cvs Caremark Cp - $28.85
- -3.06%
- $29.17
Good, steady growth, at a much cheaper price than Walgreen's. Takeover of Caremark should prove accretive, and potentially transform the industry model with the combination of a drugstore and PBM. Defensive play; also offers play on aging demographic

-
OPMR
Optimal Group - $1.25
- +1.63%
- $1.28
meets Merkel criteria as a deep value play; roughly $4 cash per share, no debt; attracted activist investor interest; probable M&A candidate if management does not deliver on strategic review process. Don't like their WowWee acquisition, held for sale now.

-
PTIE
Pain Therapeutics - $9.18
- -2.13%
- $9.19
$4 per share cash, zero debt; low burn rate; two drugs in Phase III trials with results expected in 2007 and 2008, with more in earlier stage trials; if the trials are successful, stock should perform very strongly, multibagger; if not, still decent pipeline, with cash on the balance sheet and large short position providing downside support. Short term heavily oversold, and has bottomed in the $7.75 range 5 times in the last 12 months. Fell through previous bottom at $7.75, bounced off $7.00; cash balance provides floor

-
SWY
Safeway Stores In - $21.21
- -3.68%
- $21.68
Defensive play, with 12-15% earnings growth; Blackhawk giftcard subsidiary provides exceptional growth, and could eventually be spun out, probably worth $6-10 per share; not cheap, but steady. As of March 22, 2007, only 6 of 17 analysts rate it a buy, with 5 sells; lots of room for upgrades as the economy slows, the Lifestyle reformats continue, and Blackhawk continues to grow strongly

-
ELOS
Syneron Medical L - $8.87
- -7.99%
- $9.52
Nice play on aging, vain baby boomers, demographic; over $6 cash per share, no debt; trades at 11x 2007E EPS, ex-cash. Earnings down YoY, due to G&A and marketing buildout, which should allow easier comps going forward, analysts estimate 19% or so. Strongest margins in the industry; new dental laser product has strong potential.

-
TLM
Talisman Energy I - $8.77
- -11.05%
- $8.99
One of the cheapest, large E&P companies; nice balance between oil and natural gas; nice diversification between North America, North Sea, and SE Asia; very good management; very large asset disposal and share repurchase program underway, could repurchase 10%+ of the stock this year; recent Icahn purchase
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07/25/2007 14:17 PM CDT Asked by π
nice port...I like AW also