Speculative Appreciation
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average rating: 4.00 / 2 ratings
Created by Jack Hoxie
DESCRIPTION:

Date updated:12-28-2007

Riskier picks using a cash account, money I can afford to lose and focusing on technology. I like low cost per share, market disruptive plays in this portfolio, but will also snipe at any perceived valuation bargains. I use a mixture of technical analysis, momentum and fundementals for long term swing trades.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • CHTR
    Charter Ord
  • $0.42
  • -9.19%
  • $0.46

The Triple Play Disruption - expected 3-5 year holding - purchased 2/04 Long time holding - frankly expected greater things from this stock intially given its large investors. Anyway I've suffered through that and things are looking up to at least flat recently. The key to this stock is whether it can pay its way out of its debt. The current interest rate environment would seem to be in CHTR's favor. Other factors I beleive that are in its favor are the investment by Warren Buffet and the wealth of founder/stakeholder Paul Allen. The stock has bottomed, rebounded and is currently consolidating rebound gains within a $3-3.5 range. I think the bad news has long been baked into the stock and the company has been able to refinance at better rates. 6-15-07 Continue to like CHTR which stalled after S&P's valuation downgrade. I'm looking for some consolidation and another move up.

People owning CHTR also tend to own: BJRIFLMLHRTLPHINWKORBCSTXN

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • LVLT
    Level 3 Comm Inc
  • $1.23
  • -3.91%
  • $1.25

Disruption play - expected 3-5 year holding Backed into this one from the broadwing (bwng) purchase. So far I've liked ...and added. The internet & video content delivery will continue to grow and this company is well postioned to benefit from it. 6-15 My curent problem child, LVLT looks like a range bound stock for the near future bouncing between $5 to $6 a share. Needs a catalyst.

People owning LVLT also tend to own: AMTATCCICCOIDCELGLBCGOOG

TheStreet.com Rating: D+ What is this?

  • +
  • IRBT
    Irobot Corporatio
  • $11.13
  • -10.39%
  • $12.29

Disruption play - expected 3 -5 year holding I am more focused on the military aspects, but the consumer division has great potential as well. 3-1-07 I have been torn on this position since IRBT's earnings report 2-13-07. The earnings report itself was not that bad and the .08 loss per share was expected for the quarter. It was tepid guidance that sunk the stock and its sky high P/E in a dangerous market has not helped the stock price either. The positives for this stock: Management has hinted a new product to be announced toward the end of the year and military procurement. While I consider this a longer holding, I am not happy with the recent price action and am watching this position closely. 6-15 Let IRBT have a little more latitude then I normally do and it looks like it is going to come out alright. Hook up with lockheed martin should be a major positive.

People owning IRBT also tend to own: AMATBACCSCOFDCLGFPEET

TheStreet.com Rating: D+ What is this?

  • +
  • TASR
    Taser Intl Inc
  • $4.67
  • -3.71%
  • $4.74

Another longer holding. Market disruption thesis that has yet to play out fully either way. 6-15 Seems like everyone is starting to agree that if police have to shoot someone, in most cases its better to do it with a taser rather than a gun. Overseas markets are huge. Gaining acceptance in the U.S. Over 30 wrongful death suits settled, dismissed or won. For all intents and purposes, sole possesion of the non-lethal weapons market. Diligently guarded patents. I think this holding goes much higher.

People owning TASR also tend to own: AMDEXELPDLIPIODXZOLTNUANWFMI

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • SIRI
    Sirius Xm Radio I
  • $0.3148
  • -12.56%
  • $0.36

had to get one or the other for this portfolio. Placed the bet on Stern and NASCAR. 3-01-07 and if the government doesn't get in the way, I get both. Recent earnings were not that bad. Some question of future viability without a merger which I believe will make the merger happen. 6-15-07 Stock is in limbo while the merger debate takes place. The saving grace is that while the delay goes on, the company moves to cash flow positive.

People owning SIRI also tend to own: AMGNDAVEDKSMSFTPNRASHFLUTX

TheStreet.com Rating: D- What is this?

  • +
  • CMGI
    Cmgi
  • $0.00
  • N/A
  • $N/A

Like what they are doing B2B. @ventures has some alternative energy that might play out. They are earning $ and lightning might strike twice. 6-15-07 CMGI keeps on keeping on. They generally run up just before earnings, then sell off and the pattern held true this season. Earnings were in line at .02 per share (financial reports failed to notice YOY comparision .04 included @ventures sale and reported earnings drop -sigh). @ventures arm continues to invest in alternative energy companies.

People owning CMGI also tend to own: CSIQGSSHYGSKADONTREVSFE

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • SYX
    Systemax Inc
  • $12.93
  • -0.15%
  • $12.57

I use this company all of the time and find it superior in getting the tech gear I want at a good price. Additionally I find their brand of computers to be superior to offerings from Dell, Gateway and HP. SYX has had a great deal of momentum, and I was stuck watching without capital while it ran up from 12 to 30 (excessive?). It had a pullback, and then a big drop on doubled earnings with some margin erosion. The drop seems as extreme as the huge run up and I would not be surprised at a bounce. Technically, SYX is down to a long-term trend line, has bullish MACD divergence and bottoming RSI. It has been riding its 100 day sma for a week and appears to be reaching for the gap just above it. Possible resistance does loom at the 22ish level and there could be a number of people that bought at higher level that need to be cleared out. Volume has been worrisome recently. Fundamentally, SYX reported a good quarter and I expect a good portion of the margin erosion was due to clearing out pre-vista hardware. SYX is trading at a 16 P/E that compares favorably with its peers. SYX is really a blend of a computer box maker and on-line retail - sort of Dell + CDW. I expect Vista to help drive sales over the next couple of years. They have a special dividend slated for early April which indicates to me that management is willing to return value to shareholders. There is a high level of short interest (16%) with a 5 1/2 day cover so there is a good chance for a pop here. 6-15-7 SYX has held up well over the traditionally slow season for tech and I eexpect it to heat up as the back to school season approaches. Vista remains a driving catalyst as people will need new computers and hardware. I'm looking to add on anything under $18

People owning SYX also tend to own: ABAXANFBLKBBLUDGEOGVAHCSG

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • AMRN
    Amarin Corp Ads
  • $0.93
  • -1.06%
  • $0.89

Value play. Entered in at .72 off drug trial failure from a $4 stock price based on other drugs company has in pipeline. My first foray into biotech and seems to be a compelling speculative value play. Depending on the stock action, this position is likely to be more of a trade than a holding like most others in this portfolio. 6-15 No one cares about this stock, and no one will until or unless there is a catalyst it seems. I will re-evaluate this position after next earning season.

People owning AMRN also tend to own: CHTRCMGICSUH.OBIRBTLVLTOCTL.OBSIRI

TheStreet.com Rating: D- What is this?

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Start Price

Return Value

Start Date

CHTR 2.89 -85.47% Mar 20th
LVLT 6.19 -80.13% Mar 20th
IRBT 13.05 -14.71% Mar 20th
TASR 8.20 -43.05% Mar 20th
SIRI 3.33 -90.55% Mar 20th
CMGI 1.85 ------ Mar 20th
SYX 19.33 -33.11% Mar 27th
AMRN 0.7296 +27.47% Apr 26th
ZTM 1.1699 ------ Jun 4th
CSUH.OB 1.30 ------ Jun 13th
OCTL.OB 3.10 -86.13% Oct 9th

Average return:

-29.87%

Success rate:

12.5%

Deleted Stocks:

INTC 18.99 +41.28% Mar 20th
WDC 17.50 +1.54% Mar 20th
GTW 2.20 ------ Apr 5th
PPHM 1.39 -45.37% May 31st
MKTY 1.44 -5.56% Jun 6th
TBUS 3.54 -9.32% Jul 27th

Tracking Started: 03-20-2007

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