Phillips-Van Heusen (PVH): Long ahead of earnings. Broadly speaking, PVH operates two seasonal businesses: wholesale and retail. Historically, PVH’s wholesale segment generates higher levels of sales in Q1 and Q3, as Spring and Fall merchandise are sold directly to their outlet and retail stores in anticipation of the coming season. The retail segment generates higher levels of sales in Q3 and Q4, as back to school and holiday shopping seasons take their full effect on sales. PVH generates revenue from five segments: Wholesale Dress Furnishings, Wholesale Sportswear and Related Products, Retail Apparel and Related Products, Retail Footwear and Related Products, and Calvin Klein (CK) Licensing, which includes sales, royalty and advertising, and other revenue from fees for licensing the use of the CK trademarks. Revenue from all segments has increased over the past 5 years at a 10% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). However, given the current macroeconomic downturn, PVH has seen overall sales growth of just 4% year-to-date. CK Licensing, which represents 12% of total annual sales, 48% of PVH’s operating profit, has seen sales and licensing revenues increased by almost 20% annual since the acquisition of CK in 2004 (18.1% per year). While the operating environment for Phillips-Van Heusen has deteriorated substantially over the last several months, recent economic policies, both domestic and international, are likely to support economic growth ahead. Phillips-Van Heusen’s licensing revenue model allows PVH to keep tighter levels of inventory, with fairly predictable cash flows compared to its competitors. In addition, less-capitalized retailers are now being forced to scale back growth initiatives to persevere current cash flow shortfalls amidst the worst consumer slowdown since the Great Depression. Alix Partners, a retail consulting firm, estimates that 25.8% of 182 large retailers are possible candidates to file chapter 11 in 2009. Invariability, over time, this will allow Phillips-Van Heusen to gain additional market share Phillips-Van Heusen is trading at 5.5x 2009 earnings, which assumes -10% comps in PVH’s heritage business and flat to slightly positive sales and licensing revenues in Calvin Klein. Historically, Phillips-Van Heusen has traded for approximately 17.68x trailing EPS and 12-15x forward EPS. In addition, Phillips-Van Heusen, despite its competitive operating advantage over its peers is currently trading at a substantial discount to its peers, who currently average an approximately 11.11x trailing P/E.

Shortside of oil

Shortisde of BBY

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POT - highest yielding fertilizer in the world. Largest seller of Potash. 6 forward P/E. Not a new position but RenTec went from 400k shares to 1.2mm shares last quarter and George Soros also significantly added to his position. Great short term play because of the MON raised guidance (they work hand in hand to feed the world, MON is the seeds, POT is the fertilizer to increase the yield). The reality is, even if China has capital spending issues and cutbacks , they still need to feed their people and with a rising population this need is never going away. Shipping rates are up 150% hinting far-east demand is back, and the Australian currency, one that is linked directly toward commodity demand is up 8% for the year. RenTec and Soros are among the best macro/demographic investors and its useful to see where they are placing their biggest bets.

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