Date updated:09-17-2007
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HOG
Harley Davidson - $38.03
- +2.09%
- $37.24
First up is Harley-Davidson (HOG) a stock that is right near its 52-week low. Last week, Rick Wagoner the CEO of GM said that a quarter point cut in interest rates would tremendously help auto-sales and it spark additional profits for the sector; auto-stocks where up huge last week but HOG was flat-lined. Last week, the company cut its earnings predictions and said it would cut bike shipments; sending shares lower. But with such a loyal brand Harley-Davidson is ripe for a snapback rally. People are always going to want a “HOG” and it also offers great international growth. With $1Billion dollars in both Operating Cash and Total Cash HOG just announced that they will be boosting its dividend by 20%. Look for a snapback rally.

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KSS
Kohls Cp - $42.91
- +3.30%
- $41.45
Next up is Kohl’s (KSS) which is a very similar play on the consumer just like Saks (SKS) was for us last week. Many hedge funds are short consumer oriented stocks as rising oil prices make it seem logical that consumers would stop spending; making it a perfect snap back play . Down some 24 points from its high Kohl’s should see increased sales as back-to school estimates are too low.

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LVLT
Level 3 Comm Inc - $3.13
- +8.30%
- $2.90
Also up is Level 3 Communications (LVLT) Ever since reporting bad earnings a few weeks ago LVLT has been on a slide spurring serious chatter in the answers column on stockpickr. LVLT is one of Cramer’s speculative stocks of the year as it is a play on the increasing demand for internet related bandwidth. What markets a great investor great is the ability to take information and apply it in ways which others have not (or have yet to do). If you listen to the GLW call it is clear that they are experiencing an overall demand for their fiber lines (which are the heart of the broadband shortage), LVLT is the perfect play off the GLW quarter. Also look at F5 Networks (FFIV) which has been on a serious ramp all year long, there business is related to LVLT’s. LVLT has a massive amount of debt in the form of convertible bonds; LVLT stock should rally as the 10-year note falls as it makes the debt the company has cheaper. Also, worth noting is the fact that on 9/6/07 there was a massive amount of option buying in LVLT with someone buying 30,000 of the January $7.50 calls for 20 cents.

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NYB
New York Cmmty Bn - $19.05
- +3.65%
- $18.13
Book value of $12.5- New York Community Bancorp, Inc. operates as a holding company for New York Community Bank and New York Commercial Bank, which offer banking products and services in the New York metropolitan region. These banks accept checking and savings accounts, certificates of deposit, individual retirement accounts, NOW and money market accounts, and non-interest bearing demand deposit accounts; and offer multifamily loans; commercial real estate and construction loans; commercial loan products, including term loans, demand loans, revolving lines of credit, letters of credit, and equipment leasing; loans for the construction and development of one-to-four family homes, residential subdivisions, commercial real estate, and multi-family properties; and loans for working capital and business expansion, as well as for the purchase of equipment and machinery.It is a 150 year old S&P 400 bank based in New York. It pays an industry leading 6% qualified dividend. Has the best demographics with the highest deposits and lowest default ratios. Barclays has 13,460,724 Million shares. CEO came out on 9/11 and said that the company had ZERO subprime and Alt-A business

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SU
Suncor Energy Inc - $54.36
- -3.05%
- $55.41
Next up Suncor (SU)has it is the main holding at BP Capital with $139 million invested as of the last regulatory filing. Suncor's two main segments are oil sands -- the recovery of oil from places where it's typically more expensive to extract oil, such as the tar sands of Canada -- and natural gas. Suncor acquires, develops and produces natural gas from reserves in western Canada. Suncor trades at 10 times cash flows, yet the full potential of this company is unknown. Since oil is official over $80 a barrel oil companies will have to increasingly look toward natural gas reserves and the Canadian tar sands for oil. Pickens is making a huge bet that this is the future of energy production.

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MTH
Meritage Homes Co - $19.62
- +15.14%
- $16.98
MTH was highlighted in last weeks Rocket Stocks update. I believe that this by far the best homebuilder to own current; especially as a snapback play. They are one of the FEW homebuilders who have written down assets as the market has gotten worse. Over the weekend there was a massive sale of Hovnanian homes. While it is possible that HOV is talking there book they released a statement saying "It has been a phenomenally successful"—This could be positive news for MTH which is a better builder then HOV. One other thing is that MTH has seen insane insider buying; 13,327,700 worth since August 7th—with 90% of that coming from Gary Sarver a big-time director @ the company. MTH also has a huge short position

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LEH
Lehman Bros Hld - $20.20
- +10.26%
- $17.64
How ironic is it that Lehman reports the same day as the FOMC meeting? Lehman has the largest sub-prime unit out of the major banks and thus has been hit hardest. A few weeks back Lehman fired 1200 employees in their mortgage back division, this sent a signal to the street that LEH had its arms around the sub-prime mess. Down some 30 points from its high and 10 points off its low LEH is a great way to play some potential positive news. However, I would get out of the position after they report earnings and talk about credit-markets.

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EMC
E M C Cp - $12.46
- +1.30%
- $12.19
I have been bullish on EMC for sometime now, sporting it both ahead of the VMware IPO and after. It amazes me that EMC is not trading above $20 a share right now. VMware is winning contract after contract and EMC's main storage business has never been better. Clearly the stock has trouble in breaking $20; I am not sure why that is though considering how "right" EMC is right now. With tons of cash and zero subprime debt EMC and high growth tech in general are the place to be (both before and after the FED meeting)—EMC doesn't need lower interest rates, its business is thriving. Also, it seems as though EMC is now Lone Pine Capitals MAIN holding—They own 47,099,337 shares of EMC
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