Date updated:02-13-2008
Multi year stocks

-
TGP
Teekay Lng Ptrs L - $20.80
- -4.89%
- $21.90
Teekay LNG Partners is an intl marine transportation provider of liquified natural gas and crude oil. TGP has sipping contracts for its entire fleet (and planned additions) through 2010, which averages out to a CAGR of 10% in earnings. Currently, TGPs pays a cash distribution yield under its MLP structure of 6.8% ( at $30/share). The downside risk is tied to Mgt.'s inability to secure new additions to the shipping fleet to meet future demand and the risk that any of the small number of the company's multi national oil/gas customers will cancel long term shipping contracts in spite of larger cancellation premiumes (likely to only happen if demand dropped off a cliff....there is limited competition). Additional downside risk beyond risk is tied to the lack of new port infrastructure projects, which would increase the overall shipping capacity. Such projects are typically put as risk or delayed due to policitical or social (i.e. "not in back yard") forces.

-
WFMI
Whole Foods Markt - $17.99
- -5.22%
- $18.93
A fortified leader in the speciality food retail business, a growing segment. The stock should perform well in 2008/9 as mgt. brings the wild oats' stores margins on par with whole foods, which will results in a 300-400 basis increase in margins on the related revenues. The PE multiple should stay flat or increase based on WFMI's growth expectations and their peer group's multiple.

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SAI
Saic Inc - $20.78
- +6.45%
- $20.21
SAIC is a provider of scientific, engineering, systems integration and technical services to all branches of the US military, the intelligence community, and customers in commercial markets. SAIC generated 88% of its total consolidated revenues from contracts with the US Government in 2007.

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WYNN
Wynn Resorts Ltd - $90.37
- -4.72%
- $94.00
There is considerable debt on the BS currently, but as the Wynn Cotai stabilizes and the Wynn LV keep performing, cash generated from superb operating leverage should make the existing debt less of a risk.

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AEO
Amer Eagle Outfit - $15.71
- +3.02%
- $15.30
New franchises are picking up steam, current franchise still growing. At the current PE of 12, the stock has room for PE expansion and earning suprises.

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ANF
Abercrombie & Fit - $50.99
- -6.80%
- $51.39
Best mgt. team in the sector. New franchises are picking up steam, current franchise still growing. At the current PE of 14, the stock has room for PE expansion and earning suprises.

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MTN
Vail Resorts Inc - $44.79
- -2.08%
- $45.34
Lower dollar valuation that continue to make Colorado ski locations an intl. market, a strong 2008 season, increasnig equity interests in real estate developments in premier, supply strained markets, pricing power...all for a PE 14 at $48
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