Sum of the parts equals 6-8$. The company has 250 million in debt which becomes current this june and due one year from then. The company will essentially be forced to sell segments of the company to pay off the debt and not get a going concern notice from there auditors in early August. I get the 6-8$ from a sum of the parts assuming a liquidation of the company and allocating the 40 million of overhead to the segment ebitda numbers. I confirmed with various industry players that most to all of the corporate overhead can be eliminated in a take over scenario. They will do this within 2 months. The perception by the market is that they are close to going broke or will have to raise money at unfavorable terms. The reality is that the sum of the parts is worth a multiple of the current valuation. The catalyst will be within 0-3 months when the company sells a segment. Once the company sells the segment I believe the companies' valuation will shift upward quickly as bankruptcy is taken off the table. Sum of the Parts: remember that CSAR is vertically integrated and has been restructuring for the last 4 yrs therefore the ebitda numbers and some of the sales numbers have been masked. In addition CSAR has 40 million in corporate overhead that will be eliminated in liquidation so the below ebitda numbers assume overhead is allocated to each segment. I verified with independent parties that a suitor could take out nearly 100% of the 40 million corporate overhead. Recovered Fiber Group (considered a gem): The division procures and sells fiber which is a tight commodity because the Chinese have been sucking up the supply. 12 million ebitda, 10 times ebitda (or greater, I verified with industry players)= 120 million Mill Systems: 630 million sales and around 27 million in ebitda, 200 million or so in sales are masked because the supply is sold to other CSAR division 27 million * 6 times ebitda = 162 million Tubes & Chords: least attractive of the business that's why I give it a discount 25 million in ebitda, 4 times ebitda = 100 million JV with Temple Inland, there portion is worth 65 million TOTAL = 120 + 162 + 100 + 65 = 447 - 250 (debt) = 197 million / 29.48 mil shares = 6.68 per share...discount that by another 1/2 = 3.34 TIMING: they want to have the break up completed on or before the next Q (late July) SOURCES:: I spoke with industry experts, editors at trade magazines, former executives from the industry, sell side analyst (who think its going broke), and top shareholders to reach my conclusion FYI: insiders where buying aggressively between 3.5-7$ but are now blacked out Good long play