November Conference Calls Nymph Style
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Created by Trading Nymph
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Date updated:12-03-2007

I realized that I need a method to keep notes and force myself to listen or read conference calls. By setting this up I will have quick access to my notes and allow me to blog on them and make my comments. Third Month..I am hoping to do more each month once my speed starts to grow..as you can see in my past months...I am really on the lazy side.

ALSO I AM GOING TO PUT A STAR SYSTEM OF 0 TO 5 ON WHAT I THINK OF THE COMPANY BASED ON THE CONFERENCE CALL ONLY, THEN TRAK IT...THIS IS GOING TO BE SUCH A GREAT JR. STOCKPICKR LESSON..CLASS OF 2007 RULES!!!!!!

Zero Star...Company won't be in business for very long
One Star...NO earnings at all...and is not a biotech or spec
Two Stars...Company does have some earnings or if spec/biotech has ok plans
Three Stars...Company is a solid and may have some problems but they are addressing them.
Four Stars...Company can be really really good if they can just fix a couple of things..also spec/biotech about to break out
Five Stars...Sweet, nuff said.

STILL UNDER CONSTRUCTION

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • AUY
    Yamana Gold Inc
  • $13.60
  • +2.87%
  • $13.69

11/8/2007 Actual Call 4 Stars Nymph's Take: I really hate Hedged Accounting. I don't understand it and it is driving me crazy. Cash FLOW was 105M or .30...I like that a lot more then Adjusted eps of .20. CEO Peter Marrone- Human Resources they have 5,500 employees vs 12 people they had 4 1/2 years ago. Organic growth 7 mines, 5 explorations. They are the best in South and Central America. 2.2 M oz. by 2012 as goal.Cash cost down. Operating Cost declining. Revenue was 199.7M up 297% yoy. Increase 9% from past qtr. Gold 131,366 oz up from 88,781 oz. Mining operations earnings 124.9 M up 1216% yoy...17% up from last qtr. Hedge Acct...with concentrate of metals hedge loss market to market/liability of provestional payment/ Copper...resulted in 82% of Adjusted Earnings 91.9M or .20 per share.CAN"T HEDGE 2 METALS UNDER ACCOUNTING RULES 4th qtr. new earnings mies. 11/2 90% of other mine. 10/13 100% of new mine. Nickel production needs Sulfric Acid so they want to partner. NO earnings last year v 125M or 300 yoy. 30 cash flow.

People owning AUY also tend to own: BDYIMAXAIRNEFIIFXIHLKGC

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • FRO
    Frontline Ltd
  • $26.50
  • -0.49%
  • $27.09

11/15/07 Press Release 3 Stars Nymph's Take: Increase Oil Prices and lower refining margins are actually hurting the Spot Price on these Boats...Lucky for them a lot of their fleet already have long term charter contracts.Plus, they seem to be selling alot ot thier stuff. CEO Still Need. Net Income 24.2M and EPS .32, Cash Dividend 1.50. Total. Gain on Sale of Assets 4.8M y to date net income 372 M and EPS 4.97.They Sold FRONT HORIZON. 3rd qt. Operating income 66.9 v 190.9M in 2nd qtr. Ouch! The reported earnings reflect a SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER spot market..w/ Average Daily Time Charter Equivalents (TCEs) VLCC's (really big ships) 36,000 v 51,500 last qtr Suezmax (a little smaller ships) 25,000 v 38,600 Suezmax OBO (dry stuff Suez) 41,300 v 38,300 Double Hull VLCC 36,100 v 57,700 and Suez 28,300 v 50,500 Total Cash 937.4M but 628.3M they can't use. HEY for them to break even they have to have VLCC at 30,000 and Suez at 22,100. FRO sold holdings they have in 2 other companies for 157M and 43M. OPEC looks like still increasing expect. 2.3 increase in 08.There really is only about 491 VLCC's out in the world.FRO is ordering new ships, about 34% of fleet..but over 4 yr period and38 VLCC are being converted to non trading...so it is a wash.WORLD ECONOMY STILL STRONG..08 GDP growth expect 4.8% increase. SPOT PRICE PROBLEMS...Price of Crude Oil at record high and more important the CRUDE FORWARD PRICE curve remains BACKWARDATION. Crude forward price down inventory drawdown. Reduced refinery margins down import volumes of crude oil. 40% of FRO has a FIXED OUT on time Charter so not subject to Spot Price...BIG PROBLEM FOR SPOT start of 4th qtr. VLCC was 25,100 v 47,100 yoy and Suez 18,500 THIS IS BELOW THE BREAKEVEN MARK..DANGER IN THE WATERS!!!

People owning FRO also tend to own: EXMOSGNATNBIXKFXRTKS

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • FRE
    Freddie Mac
  • $1.16
  • +1.75%
  • $1.16

11/20/07 Freddie Mac Transcript 1 Star and it is being foreclosed on. Nymph's Take: I hate reading this cc, they LOVE to use "terms" ..GO, ABS,GSE and they love to try to double speak to try and discount the losses...it is one of the hardest conf calls to follow. CEO Dick Syron- Net loss of 2B 4th qtr difficult as well. They did benefit from Net interest income and guaranteed fees cont to grow. The GSEs were set up for times like these. In these bad times the GSEs are the primary liquidity provider for mortgages..65% v 40% yoy. Increase default reat. The worst portfolio was in 1991!!! 2.6% default rate and severity of about 30%. So they would need to see TWICE as bad to justify risk premium.Earlier in the yr begain restricting the credit terms and increasing prices for purchases through bulk.Net loss of 2B or 3.29 per share. Net Interest income increased qoq 987M v 973M Revenues qoq 520M v 474M. 1.5B interest rate related loss. Guarantee fee Biz 7B pre-tax reduction in value due to decline in market value. 4.6B loss of credit costs year to date through P & L..but adj to 2.2B. MAY CUT DIVIDENT BY 50% or raise capital...so take away...3rd qtr loss more then double from LAST YEAR.

People owning FRE also tend to own: BAMBSXCCHRDELLIMAXJOE

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • CMRG
    Casual Male Retai
  • $2.62
  • +2.75%
  • $2.58

11/27/07 Casual Male Transcript 2XL Stars Nymph's Take: This is a turn around story...will it have a happy ending? But the really thing to know is OBESITY ISSUES and the SIZE ISSUES of Europe are an incredible opportunity. The rates are increasing there are actually higher rates than are currently happening in the USA...and Casual Male is in the sweet spot because no one does it better. CEO Levin-They are going to close the Jared M Biz they are out of their core of competency. They are going to stick with XL Living and XL Shoes. In AUG 08 will be in EUROPEAN UNION..first thru web. LONDON STORE doing well..2nd best store. qoq sales down 1.1% blame warm weather,but it is picking up. No inventory problems in fact warm Oct allowed to sell summer clearance and reduce to less then 6% inventory. Rochester is giving them problems..trying to get better fashions.Loyality program (the card people) are 80% of all sales. B & T is for low end consumers and trying not to use Casual Males to trade down. New Biz should be 7M for the yr. ShoesXL doing well 47% of customers are new and just found on web.Incuding female non gender shoes private label continues to outperform our brands. Oak Hill RAN out of product!!!! Harbor Bay weakness....old mans clothes!!! Going after young man, Florida weak a bit...end of closing stores. Going with brands in europe..expecting operating earnings 25-50% up in 4th. Sales 106.6m v 106.9m yoy 3.3% net loss 3.8 m (2.6 m of that for closing Jareds). Customer traffic down 6% during 3rd qtr. sales for rest of yr.) 470m v guidance of 495m,internet down 106.6m v 106.9 yoy. Since 2006 repurchased 5.7 m shares by BORROWING THE $$$$...not good!!!!!

People owning CMRG also tend to own: GLDSLVSPYUSOAMKRANHASTM

TheStreet.com Rating: D- What is this?

  • +
  • FIG
    Fortress Inv Gp L
  • $4.24
  • 0.00%
  • $N/A

11/13/07 transcript 4 stars Nymph's Take: This is a 50% grower selling at 11 x 08 numbers. Plus, Soverign Funds need their handlers? CEO EDENS: Overall good results. Expected pre-tax distribu. earnings 50% higher yoy. In the PAST the 4th qtr is the most productive one..but this yr little in the way of private equity for the rest of the yr. 15 x 2007 earnings. Pretty modest w 50% growth. They describe themselves as a Fee paying asset management times the net results we get. Hedge Fund Sector/Group..15B or 48% of fee paying 9/30 they had 12.2% gross return and 8.2% net Oct 15.6% and 10.9%. 2% fee on performance. Credit biz is a NO story "Pete" makes sure diversified. Private Equity 13B, 41% of our total fee paying assets. 8.8B invested and 4.7 yoy. Made alot for selling Crown Calital. Focused on asset-based companies with good growth prospects stable cash (loan) biz..like real estate and SENIOR housing. The stocks they buy into is a lot of Energy and Tech. ** Castle Biz Problem..-159M subprime ala 06' only 1.5% of overall earnings. Credit perf. Bad/ Invest opp good. NO CDO exposure "Subprime became the proverbial strain to expose excess leverage in the financial Markets". *** Market (opinion) late stages of a liquidity crisis and now starting to show the effects of credit perf. back to 1991..market price of highest rated securities should be higher next yr. Trading biz tough in July and Aug. Overseas in England, Italy and Germany and Asia.CEO says he does not like to be the ranch. Pre-tax 111m up 66% qoq. Management fee 31.2B up 62% qoq. Segment revenues 219M 80% increase. GAAP net income loss 38M includes 54M non-cash..excluding qtr profit 17M. -.52 v forecast of 27. Value of investments 39.9B v 29.9B fees 219m v 122m qoq. FIG lost 1M on its own investments during the qtr.

People owning FIG also tend to own: HMINICEKONGMRVLNYXVFCAPKT

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • SLT
    Sterlite Ind Ltd
  • $18.50
  • 0.00%
  • $N/A

Need date..4 stars Nymph's Take: India Copper, Aluminum and Zinc ADR..3 months will be better. CEO Kanira-very good qtr. Highest EVER quarterly production. Smelter Expansion in 3 months. Hurt biz by rubee to $. TCRC soft 50% lower. Al 90,000 tons, CU 91,000 tons v 81,000 yoy wind power and energy. Cu prices= LME x current exchange rates + 8-9% premium. Zinc will increase. non-hedge Rubee.

People owning SLT also tend to own: BAMCBLILVLTNYXSHLDTBSIBEAV

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

 

Start Price

Return Value

Start Date

AUY 13.94 -2.44% Nov 26th
FRO 46.00 -42.39% Nov 26th
FRE 26.47 -95.62% Nov 26th
CMRG 7.26 -63.91% Nov 27th
FIG 18.21 -76.72% Dec 3rd
SLT 26.30 -29.66% Dec 3rd

Average return:

-51.79%

Success rate:

0%

Tracking Started: 11-26-2007

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