Maedhros Portfolio 1
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Created by Maedhros
DESCRIPTION:

Date updated:10-31-2007

The first and only thing I consider when modeling my portfolio is safety margin.

That margin is assured by a combination of three things, as I think:
1) a great cash flow (a good yield is a plus);
2) low multiple;
3) a business that you understand.

Now and then, you can consider a turn around story. Or a special situation stock.

Those three things aside, you are trading, not investing.

As of march 24th, sold out FDP, WPI and CHR.
Bought NG, MRH and DGX.
Increased ECPG and XJT.


You can track the performance of this portfolio at this link:
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=HlDhFpMiEfKfBnIkMaKiAbDf

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • GGC
    Georgia Gulf Cp
  • $4.28
  • +15.68%
  • $3.75

Too much battered down stock, considering its level of free cash flow.

People owning GGC also tend to own: AIGBBDCBHEWSFXIIMMRPCL

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • XJT
    Expressjet Hldgs
  • $0.20
  • +4.93%
  • $0.23

Another stock that provide tons of cash regularly. EV/Ebitda absolutely ridicolous.

People owning XJT also tend to own: BGBHEBIGCPTSDYNGWRGYMB

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • DGX
    Quest Diagnostc
  • $53.96
  • -1.05%
  • $54.19

A sector I like, good margins and cash flow, and favourable technicals.

People owning DGX also tend to own: ABTEPDFMDGSKJNJJOSBJTX

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • NG
    Novagold Resource
  • $5.73
  • -2.22%
  • $6.00

Probably the most cheap stock in its sector compared to the quantity of resources it controls, and with the best managment too (they have to prove theirself operationally, by the way). Almost surely Barrick will try to get it again, after the failed tentative at 16 $ some months ago.

People owning NG also tend to own: AUYGGRASXCDYCVAENWVEPG

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • FRO
    Frontline Ltd
  • $52.30
  • -1.65%
  • $53.50

Great managment and yield.

People owning FRO also tend to own: AEMBRYCLFCMCCOGCPOCR

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • PGH
    Pengrowth Egy Uts
  • $16.79
  • -1.00%
  • $17.09

Some good acquisition, and great yielding at least for the next four years.

People owning PGH also tend to own: BGFCCIELPFRGLNOPOPSWSSRI

TheStreet.com Rating: D+ What is this?

  • +
  • MRH
    Montpelier Re Hld
  • $16.37
  • -2.15%
  • $16.51

Same story as CHR, which it substitutes. Hoping for the same outcome.

People owning MRH also tend to own: HRTUSGCRYPDFCGRALQUNYX

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • HW
    Headwaters Inc
  • $14.22
  • -4.05%
  • $14.63

Multiples too low, and worries about its business too high.

People owning HW also tend to own: BHPGTECLRKDUKFTEKIMGNIVAN

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

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Start Price

Return Value

Start Date
GGC 17.69 -75.81% Mar 24th
XJT 6.18 -96.76% Mar 24th
NG 16.57 -65.42% Mar 24th
FRO 34.95 +49.64% Mar 24th
PGH 17.3299 -3.12% Mar 24th
HW 22.21 -35.97% Mar 24th
LYG 45.43 -55.65% Mar 24th
ECPG 9.79 +31.26% Mar 24th
NANX 5.59 -67.80% Mar 24th
BLG 19.95 -93.88% Mar 24th
SUN 71.16 -41.53% Mar 24th
DGX 48.98 +10.17% Mar 24th
MRH 17.60 -6.99% Mar 24th
S 20.33 -60.45% Apr 25th
WON 2.13 -66.20% Oct 31st

Average return:

 -34.79%

Success rate:

 20%

Deleted Stocks:
FDP 19.82 0.00% Mar 24th
CHR 8.73 ------ Mar 24th
AEA 15.83 +8.40% Mar 24th

Hated Stocks:
BIDU 371.00 -26.92% Oct 31st
CROX 72.09 -93.79% Oct 31st
RIMM 121.20 -11.31% Oct 31st
ALNY 31.79 -11.76% Oct 31st

Tracking Started: 03-24-2007

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