Date updated:10-05-2007
I try to pick stocks I won't sell for at least a year...preferably that I won't sell for at least five years or will virtually never sell. I don't have the time to research continually, and frankly I think the only way an amateur can do well at this is to put the research in at the beginning and then buy a stock that will (hopefully) experience gradual appreciation both in good markets and bad. Ie., I don't waste time with yearly price targets and gimmicky 'plays.' I also reinvest dividends on all of my stocks. Between taxes, commissions, and my evaluation of the ratio of my risk/reward payoff to the amount of work I'd need to do, this seems like the only sensible way for a small-fry like me to invest (other than using mutual funds and my 401k of course).
HOWEVER, I have also found that certain stocks overperform so much in a short time, that one must sell them (even if one loves the company), because they have nowhere to go but down, in which case one may ride a low-growth cycle in that stock when one could be making money elsewhere. Examples would be CCF, which I sold at $31/share, TM, which I sold at $130/ADR. I'm starting to feel that way now about BHP....

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MEOH
Methanex Corporat - $17.59
- -1.18%
- $17.66
10/2/2007 Update: Back in positive territory again for me. This is a great company and the only reason tons of people aren't buying it is because it's not in China. 8/30/2007 Update: Still a great company (and not because of any speculative fuel cell nonsense). No intention of selling it. New as of 6/26/2007. Bought at $25.75ish today. Good price, good dividend, good business, good product, etc., etc.

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OVTI
Omnivision Techno - $12.66
- -1.63%
- $12.89
8/30/2007 Update: Gets a crap rating from thestreet, yet I'm up a huge % on my holding in this in the last two months, and it seems like a pretty stable gain. 6/28/2007 Update: Looks like I may have timed this one right, unlike UFPI. 5/31/2007 Update : Not really sure why this release of these financial results was a reason for the stock to shoot up like it has, except I must say that this is what happens when all of the downside risk has been priced into an asset, and when investors are discounting upside potential. New Holding on 5/21/2007. Bought at $14.90 today. This is a leading supplier of digital imaging chips for cell phone cameras and other devices. As the stock market has sky-rocketed over the last year its stock has tanked, and again I see little downside here, with a business that is strong, a balance sheet that is strong. I'm looking for stocks that will grow in the next year and I think this is one.

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VEURX
Vanguard European - $27.01
- -1.10%
- $N/A
8/31/2007 Update: Interesting; I definitely caught the tail-end of the Euro-boom, which was ending even before the sub-prime hit the fan. I haven't declined much, just haven't gone anywhere. This was more of a pure diversification move than anything else, and it has provided stability. 6/28/2007 Update: Total stagnation. God-damn mutual funds. Still, it lends stability, and it's up 2% or so, so that's good I suppose. 4/20/2007: I like European fundamentals and wanted a good European no-load fund to diversify my portfolio. I bought in for the minimum investment at about $39.50ish sometime between April 16 and April 20, 2007.

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MO
Altria Group Inc - $18.98
- -1.20%
- $19.16
8/31/2007 Update: This stock has been absolutely stagnant, while earnings grow. Of course, as I noted two months before it was announced (pat, pat, pat), they will spin off the international operation. Until then, why buy this stock? Because it's got a 4.3% dividend. Even with a tiny bit of share-price growth, which is not out of the realm of possibility, that's a pretty damn decent return. Ex div is 9/12. As soon as they announce the ticker for the international stock I'll buy that and sell this. 6/28/2007 Update: I hear rumblings that they will split their US and International businesses. Dude, how do I dump the US stock and get into the international one if that happens?!?!? 4/3/2007 Update: Just upped my holding in this. The fundamentals are killer. And I think the market does not understand the continuing implications of the State Farm v. Campbell case (limiting MOs potential punitive damages in the US). The biggest risk here is that MO is engaging in its 1950-1990 US behavior now in other countries, particularly developing countries. If it is, that is the greatest risk to its future earnings. If people want to smoke, they should be able to do so, since the drug is legal. But if I see MO engaging in more deception about health issues I'll go bearish, purely from a financial point of view. Until then, the sky is the limit for this company. 2/2007: Bought in 1999 at $24. Litigation was/is a red herring. This company has killer earnings, good dividend, consistent growth. We'll see how the K split pans out.... I'm not quite as thrilled with it as other people, as K and the beer business to some extent have insulated MO politically, imo. It's not like other tobacco stocks, it's big ole' MO, and as a pure tobacco company will get more criticism than its peers, even when they act identically -- just like WMT does.

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BAC
Bk Of America Cp - $16.09
- +0.06%
- $16.03
8/30/2007 Update: I was too quick to criticize myself, and I'm glad I've held on. C is down almost 10%, GS is down at least double that, and I'm sitting at about where I bought. This is a great company, and I'm glad about their recent investment in Countrywide. Plus, Buffett disclosed an investment in it around 8/15/2007, which means he was probably parking his money there right about when I was. That's certainly not something to be ashamed of!!! And note to self, repeat this mantra: investment banks are typically overvalued when they trade at much more than price-to-book.... 6/28/2007 Update: So much for quick conclusions. Both GS and BAC have been pretty stagnant. So far, the conclusion is that I shouldn't have bought a banking stock just because I thought I needed a banking stock. I should have gone where I thought the true value was, regardless of industry or country. 5/7/2007 Update: So far, the conclusion is I should have bought GS instead.... 4/3/2007: Purchased today, at approximately $50/share, to hold at least one year. I wanted a banking stock. Excellent dividend, lower debt/equity than Citigroup, excellent customer service (I bank there), strong growth, low P/E, minimal exposure to sub-prime lending b/c of the buy-back clauses that idiot firms like New Century agreed to. GS and C were my other candidates, but I was put off by the fact that C is getting a new CFO, and with GS everything looks great, but with it having come so far so fast, I worry about share growth next year (though the valuation is still low and it's an amazing institution).

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XOM
Exxon Mobil Cp - $74.38
- -0.36%
- $74.38
8/31/2007 Updtate: Obviously, it's one of the world's top five or ten companies. I wish I had bought more years ago. 6/28/2007 Update: It just keeps trucking, with slow but steady growth. I expect a pull-back later this fall when oil/gas prices (likely) go down. Not that I care. 2/2007: Oil companies will make more and more money as supplies dwindle and China/India grow. Bought in 1999 pre-Mobile acquisition, and before the last split, at about $70-$75. I'm green and anti-Saudi, but if the morons running our government are going to do nothing revolutionary to fix our problems, I'm at least going to personally profit from their idiotic aversion to government leadership (boy, it sure sucks for the economy that FDR built all those highways, huh guys? that really turned out crappy!). I will only leave XOM when it looks like populists are going to torch the offices, and maybe not even then.

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PG
Procter Gamble - $61.80
- -0.56%
- $62.00
8/30/2007 Update: What a perfect example of people running home to mama when the market gets its panties in a bunch. Aside from treasuries, what is safer than the world's greatest consumer goods company? I'm now up about 8% since I bought in 4/06. 6/28/2007 Update: Not the favored type of stock right now. Has the sex appeal of a Depends diaper. Oh the conflict between my value philosophy and my desire to make quick green. I'll still hold though. 5/7/2007: Slow but steady. Still, it's been stuck at around $61-63 for quite some time now. So it goes. This is why when you're buying a stock like this you look for a good dividend, which PG has. 2/2007: Little leary about P/E but I bought in 4/06 at just below $60 and intend to hold this for ten years or more. It's an excellent company in an industry that thrives in good times and bad. Good international business.

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BHP
Bhp Billiton Limi - $73.36
- -1.08%
- $72.72
8/31/2007 Update: This and ACH have seriously cushioned my portfolio, and are responsible for me not being down over the last six weeks. Frankly, at 19X earnings, it's starting to look over-valued to me. But again, I vowed I would hold for at least a year. 5/7/2007 Update: I've been shocked by the appreciation of this company's share price this year. It has wildly outpaced my expectations. I initially noted the company in early January and was pissed it had gone to $40 before I could free up money to buy. But 20% since then is not bad! I worry about a drop-back, but I have decided to stick with my strategy, hold the stock, and hope for the best. 2/2007: Bought in 1/2007 at just over $40. Cheap, top co in Australia, which is a rule-of-law country poised to make even more gains out of China/India growth. BHP is a top natural resources producer, and China is short on natural resources. Good relationships, good network, internationally hedged, and hedged among various commodities. A more conservative play than buying a Brazilian mining co, but this company will be raking in the cash for another 100 years.
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09/04/2007 20:33 PM CDT Asked by KH27
Just checking to see if comments are enabled.