Jan/ Feb Conf Calls 2008 Nymph Take
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Created by Trading Nymph
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Date updated:05-02-2008

My notes on Conf Calls this earning season..

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • INTC
    Intel Cp
  • $22.30
  • +0.95%
  • $22.20

1/15/08 Actual Conf Call 3 stars Nymphs Take: They got a lot of their numbers by cutting costs. This next qtr slow. BUT HEY GLOBAL growth..75% of biz no signs of slowing but they are cautious because they watch CNBC. CEO Paul Otellini..2007 was a breakthrough year for innovation at Intel. Revnue up 10.5% yoy, gross margins 58, 8.5 yoy, operating income 105% yoy, Net Income 2.3B, EPS .38 Full year 8.25B up 45%. Numonyx deal will be done this qtr...they are spinning off a unit to be a private indep semiconductor Co. w/ Stmicroelectronics. They have their 45mm ramp..and Cammore for portable..low price, low energy. They will be working on next gen of 45. Europe doing good with 20% of market. The CEO is very proud of Product leadership and Leaner. They decrease spending 2.5B savings..34% to 29%..cut 8% of employees. They had Flash Biz decreases..For this qtr a decline of 7% made up of a bunch of small stuff...Nan pricing, Weaker economy, MRVL, By 3rd qtr all restructing will be done. They will give more detail and estimates at the Analyst Meeting in March on the 5th and 6th.

People owning INTC also tend to own: AAPLAMDCSCODELLGOOGIBMMSFT

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

  • +
  • C
    Citigroup Inc
  • $21.12
  • +1.10%
  • $20.64

1/15/08 Transcript Call 1 star Nymphs Take: Horrible...but you know that European Credit Card numbers may have pinaction. CEO Pandit-The CEO said Unacceptable..sort of says it all. 18B losses in subprime. Will tell everyone when he figures out what to do...ok...Planning Public 2B conv. pref security Offer to raise money. Divident lowered. Selling stuff. HEY SOME GOOD NEWS!! Record results in Wealth Manag., International Consumer (Asia Pacific, L. America and Global Tran. Services) Lay Offs 4,200 PEOPLE., 17.4B. Net Revenues -70%..ouch. Cost of Credit 231% US consumer.9.8B or 1.22 per share. Credit Card International UP 37%, USA up 8%. DOUBLE DIGIT growth in INTERNATIONAL consumer 15% up..USA -26%. 2/3 of losses of Credit Cards in CA, FL,IL, AZ and MI. US credit balances raising. Record Revenues in Latin America and second highest qtr Asia.

People owning C also tend to own: ACEBACCBCOPCVXDISGS

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

  • +
  • ETN
    Eaton Cp
  • $73.55
  • +0.42%
  • $73.74

1/22/08 Transcript 4 stars Nymphs Take: CC truly give the best information of the economy...and Data Centers are hot. CEO Alex Cutler- 4th qtr.came in expected guidance...09 over midpoint. Record sales up 10%. Segment profits new record at 13.5%. Record 4th qtr. operating cash flow 428M- strong bookings in Electrical business and hydraulics biz. 12/21 reached agreement to acquire the Moeller Group and the Phoenixtec business (55% outside usa/ eastern europe play). Tax rate came in lower. All time RECORD levels w/all time Record backlogs-but not able to ship everything in Dec..cost .05 in qtr. For Truck biz slight fall off in margins in N. America a mix change-higher mix of vocational vehicles than normally in 4th qtr. OEMs were pulling in the vocational vehicles, weakness in across the highway order. 2008..The CEO said since the fall he was calling for the start of the year to be a very weak basis..1-2% decrease in manufacturing industrial production.**** Wouldn't be until the 2nd qtr. the likelihood of positive growth and more specifically in the 3rd and 4th qtr of this year. US market growth 2-3%, outside USA 5-6% up. Electrical biz very, very strong backlogs (great example is in the oil and gas sector) Residential side- wire estimates 25-30% further drop in housing starts. Aerospace biz has new segments, Hydraulics market Flat- construction equipment NO POSITIVE growth this year. Auto Biz flat -3% usa, row 3%. Plan to increase qtr divident rate .43 to .50. Also increase of est cash flow 1.25B to 1.35B and Cash from operation 1.8B to 1.9B. 1st qtr will be like the 4th qtr with production schedules weak but should be getting better in after that. Truck Viewing-slots EVERYBODY wants are DEC 2008. Moeller may close at end of March, final financing not done ****COULD increase float or hybrid to pay for the M & A of Mueller. Pension cost decreased. 2008-2009 Non-Res expecting to see weakness out of Retailing come out of small strip stores and some chains. Strength in Medical Area, Intitutional Education and Oil and Gas...but #1 is CONTINUED DIGITATIONS of data and the need to back up all digital devices and online storage...so uninterruptible power supply w/back up generators is keeping them VERY BUSY...DATA CENTERS is the hot area..telecom spotty, depends what part of the world. 787 from BA will help them in 08 if it is built. Earnings $256 million, or $1.71 per share, compared with $241 million, or $1.59 per share, yoy. Adjusted to exclude one-time charges for Moeller and Phenictex earned $1.75 per share for the quarter, v $1.63 per share yoy. Revenue increased 10 percent to $3.37 billion, from $3.07 billion yoy.

People owning ETN also tend to own: ABXBABACBHPCCHKCHL

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • TGI
    Triumph Group Inc
  • $47.87
  • +3.73%
  • $46.49

Jan 25, 2008 Actual Call 5 stars for company, negative star for CFO Nymph's Take: This company failed to meet numbers because the CFO did not provide 2 stupid PR's for the analyst community. CEO Dick Ill..Aerospace is doing great, TGI is still in business and doing great. WHY did they blow their Qtr...Net Sales up 16% to 275.1M, Operating Income 17% RECORD BACKLOG!!! improved 14%, 1.2B and increased an additional 4% from 2nd qtr., they are in a Aerospace Cycle. Delay 787 invested in and has hurt TGI..Income from cont. operations for 3rd qtr 2008 53%, 17.9M, $1.00 eps.Net Income for 3rd qtr increased 55% to 16.7M or .93 diluted share..inclusive of loss of .07 per diluted share from discontinued operation. After Market not a huge backlog 8% yoy. Export 8%..33% after market not changing. For the planes..#1,737 2. 777 3.787 (TGI is only counting 2 yr orders in hand..which are not all the orders they have) 4. CH Helicopter 5. Blackhawk..33-34% tax rate for the rest of the year. Guidance is upperend guidance 3.95-4.10....737 and 787 Seq. decline, sales BECAUSE THEY STOPPED SHIPPING ON DEC 18 for the holidays. Q4 increase revenue, highest qtr. Legal Cost..Criminal Case pending w/ ex-enginners. Can't discuss, 9M this yr..17.7M total for this case. Should go to trial in May. 787 BA slowing pace. BA not indicating, some slow down expenenced some in, but will be a strong program. CFO Didn't know produstion not R & D 50-100 bases point. NOTE if US PRESIDENT brings back R & D tax credit then 1-2% benefit. '09 Backlog will be growth by 787, OK THIS IS WHY the revenue missed..they ship 3.5M a day..the analyst calculated until the normal Dec 23 day...they held shipment on Dec 18...Missing 4 days. Twailand will cont to improve will grow profit..but should cont to grow. 787 above average margins better than legacy. Buy Backs,,,CEO can't answer if he is buying for 2 days. Feb. the Board will discuss the Issue. 18M share ct.2.5M...ALSO EPS had a dilution of over 9% by convertion of Bonds. Man, Great Company that missed numbers for being stupid..and not releasing PR on changed shipping days and conv. bond issue...I am stupid because the Bonds and est. not changing should have been a RED FLAG.

People owning TGI also tend to own: ATKBOOMCPLACSCOFCXGRMNHOS

TheStreet.com Rating: B+ What is this?

  • +
  • CBT
    Cabot Cp
  • $25.39
  • +2.59%
  • $24.85

1/24/08 Transcript 1 star for this speciality chemical company. Nymph's Take: Very hard call to follow all the materials...but bottomline earnings fell 33% yoy. CEO P. Prevost- Brand New CEO..Europe, Asia, China, S. America fine particles..This was a solid qtr..but the new CEO is NOT Satisfied with this down 33% qtr..surprise. Carbon Black biz solid qtr(use for tires, ink, coatings, plastics, etc). China but declined subseq rubber black capacity in China is sold out. THAT IS BECAUSE the didn't import because of the increase in feedstock cost causing margins too low. Metal Oxides are ROW..fumed metal oxides..silica used in ink, cake mixes, pharma, etc...for Jan looking good w/ no slow down.. Supermetals..COMPETITIVE market conditions..declined significantly!! Speciality fluids are strong. Carbon black does ok with economic slowdown, they benefit w/ lower oil prices and moving away from N. America to Asia. High Speed Segment remain unsatisfactory. Cesium Formate is used in drilling an more are using. Leading indicator is Silicon to see how the biz is doing. Small decline in last qtr. more operational motivations. Carbon Black is Seasonal and drops in 4th qtr to 1st.Inkjet may have a launch bubble in 08/09. Inkjet colorants remain weak.

People owning CBT also tend to own: AMRCNQDCPGENRGRIGRIO

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • ZMH
    Zimmer Holdings I
  • $66.01
  • -6.87%
  • $64.28

1/29/08 Transcript 4 stars Nymph's Take: Why don't they care about resurfacing??? CEO D. Dvorak- Sales up 15% yoy (a lot of knees US and Europe) 16% growth adjust eps. 7.2M shares repurchased in 07. 2008 global growth midsingle digit..spine and teeth a little higher. EPS 4.20 -4.25 weaker $, new products. Mobile Bearing knee good for knees. M/L Taper Hip good, but hips mixed opportunities that have to be addressed. Look to buy spine plays Arthritis up 40% in next 2 decades. Trauma needs work. DOJ- good boys and girls, moving to ROW(to get away from DOJ??? watch)..and away from Knees and Hips. Reconstructive Sales up 15.3% knees bad. Zimmer Knees- Uni-Lock and prolong highly Crosslinked Polyethylene. Knees- American 9.6%, Europe 10.3%, Asia-Pacific 13.3%, Hip Sales Up 6.7%, Spine Up 15.1% America-Europe 27.6%, Asia Pacific 45.6% Tax Rate 27.5% for 07, 08 28.5%. 25.1% for qtr. STILL CAN REPURCHASE 621M of STOCK!Inventory days in 07 258 days (decrease of 19 days from 06). Cont Challenge in Hips tougher comp. Have expected costs to improve. INFRASTRUCTURE in the future to Central Hub. 3 Goals 1. Financial Performance 2. Infrastructure (lot of 1 time cost) 3. New Products Joint Replacements normally around ages 67-68. Baby Boomers 63. Europe building to avoid taxes. Less SURGERIES IN THE SUMMER. They are not doing resurfacing products.."NOT part of biz strategy". About the DOJ postings.."Healthcare pros making decisions best interest of Patient"..Cobalt Chrome Prices increased..Dental Biz is up 60% but insignificant. Biomet, syk, snn and jnj competitors. APRIL 24th next cc.

People owning ZMH also tend to own: APSGCYTRADXMSRAAPLAATICAT

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • EMC
    E M C Cp
  • $14.17
  • +13.72%
  • $12.86

1-29-08 Transcript 5 stars Nymph's Take: This is sooo under valued. CEO Joe Tucci-Very strong performance. Three sections to company plus VM Ware. 1. Information Storage 2. Content Management 3. RSA Security Biz Q 4 3.4B up 15% .26 up .23 Cash Flow 895M 62% UP Free Cash Flow 688M up 98%. 1. Info Storage...SOLID 14% over Q4, storage revenues were up a very solid 14% over Q4 last yr. Symmetrix very strong 12% Clarion 15% yoy. STRONG share gain NSZO fastest growing product. back up disk biz big..tape not. Dell Represented 12.6% of EMC total revenue. * STORAGE SOFTWARE Mozy online back-up best is biz 2.Content Management Revenue 13% up 17% D6product portfolio sluggish start end of yr pu momentium. 3. RSA up 30% revenue yoy best in biz- addresses many areas of risk across data center service revenues grew 19% to 3.4B. Good Growth 2008 1.15% 2. 8% 3. 16%. VMWare .12 of it, Total EPS up.91. For VMWARE revenue should grow 50%. Double diget growth in N. America, India, APJ and Latin America. ROW revenue up 23% BRIC and 13 emerg countries. Q1 08 550M share repurchase maybe more when board meets. NO COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS, NO COLLATERALIZED LOAN OBLIGATIONS NO STRUCTURED investment vehicles. Q4 Tax Rate 13.2% 08 20% 07 22%. Stock Compenstion up .05 22M severance plan Estimate 15B or 1.04 a share. SAN FRAN RSA CONF July 11 350 exhibits. Stronger then expected 4th qtr results 08 15B v est street 14.7B EPS for EMC .71 Each EMC share own .18 VMW

People owning EMC also tend to own: AAPLAMTAMZNATHRBEASCTSHGOOG

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • ARAY
    Accuray Incorpora
  • $8.25
  • +1.60%
  • $8.09

1-31-08 Transcript 2 stars Nymph's Take: Not Sexy..have to build Bunkers just to use this stuff and Govt is causing problems on payments. CEO Euan Thompson 4th consecutive qtr of record revenue and backlog. Revenue 52 M up 98% v 26.3% yoy. Backlog 29% yoy. 126 Cyberknifes worldwide. Net Income 2.3M .04 eps. Service revenues up 144% yoy. $460,000 is service revenue for each knife and diamond contract. Prostate Cancer is #3 following brain and lung tumors. Cyberknife increased in the use of treatment in Prostrate and Lung. In Japan it is only approved for head and neck. Q4 enrollment for study for early lung cancer. New products from ASTRO conf. decrease treatment time by 50% of cyberknife. USA treatment per patient is $250,000. 5 is China 1 in Russia and India. Adjusted GUIDANCE FY 08 210-230M 50-64% growth..Customers are having a harder time getting credit to buy machine or build location THE BUNKER..lol. some customers are slowed down due to credit. MOST ARE NOT HOSPITALS with the credit problems...they are stand alone Clinics. THIS IS THE REASON WHY THE STOCK IS IN TROUBLE...There are possible changes in CMS which is still uncertain..hospitals to bill medicare for patients sent to these clinics can not bill medicare...BIG PROBLEMS IF THAT IS THE CASE. Yet, Medicare amounts have been set in Calif and a couple of other states. NO DEBT and 25M up to buy back when the stock is cheap. They pulled some customers out of the Backlog because they knew they could follow through with it. Sales team is focusing on more hospitals. Doctors are getting use to Radio Surgery. BUT THEY have to build Bunkers to use it..15-20% are the Clinics...analyst seem not to trust the Backlog numbers when CEO didn't have exact figures...too expensive and hard to set up.

People owning ARAY also tend to own: CHCG.OBCOGOCVYDUGFXEGASSGE

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

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Start Price

Return Value

Start Date

INTC 20.00 +11.50% Jan 28th
C 26.64 -20.72% Jan 28th
ETN 82.72 -11.09% Jan 28th
TGI 50.47 -5.15% Jan 28th
CBT 31.45 -19.27% Jan 28th
ZMH 77.40 -14.72% Feb 1st
EMC 15.81 -10.37% Feb 1st
ARAY 9.52 -13.34% Feb 1st
ISRG 254.00 +30.37% Feb 1st
SNCI 5.36 -54.85% Feb 6th
YUM 34.18 +5.18% Feb 8th
PEP 70.41 -3.82% Feb 8th
BW 29.85 -17.79% Feb 9th
LZ 57.35 -16.25% Feb 11th
CSTR 31.97 +5.16% Feb 11th
AG 56.73 -5.75% Feb 12th
UTHR 81.98 +28.25% Feb 23rd
IMA 37.16 -16.12% Feb 23rd
SWY 29.75 -10.49% Feb 25th
TSCM 9.94 -37.42% Feb 25th
FWLT 65.05 -12.79% Feb 28th
SNDA 33.73 -25.47% Feb 28th
JWN 38.57 -20.64% Feb 28th
FOE 16.10 +37.14% Mar 3rd
XTXI 35.75 -10.27% Mar 3rd
LNN 103.74 -13.23% May 2nd

Average return:

-8.54%

Success rate:

23.08%

Tracking Started: 01-28-2008

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