JShealy Portfolio 1
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average rating: 4.00 / 1 ratings
Created by JShealy
DESCRIPTION:

Date updated:03-27-2007

No description available

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • AWH
    Allied Wld Assur
  • $46.75
  • +1.87%
  • $46.28

Trades at 1.2X BV, ROE @ 24%. Some of the best management in the Insurance business. Company main investors are Goldman, AIG and Chubb. Barring any major P&C event, company should increase BV by $5.00/share per year for some time. Company in growth/expansion mode as well. Should return LT Investors ~ 20%+ / year.

People owning AWH also tend to own: ABFSAIGAMAWICBSCNOCOP

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • AIR
    A A R Cp
  • $20.05
  • -1.18%
  • $20.03

Cheap infrastructure play for the Airline Industry. Also provide services to US Gov. Company expanding internationally. Great Customer lists. Operating Margins expanding. Ex- Inventories Fair Value (i.e. LBO Model) suggest $35/share valuation.

People owning AIR also tend to own: AEISATWCCCEONCIDCCOPMRPARL

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

  • +
  • CE
    Celanese Corporat
  • $29.29
  • +0.17%
  • $28.74

2007 Estimated EBITDA estimate is $1,155-1,225mm, Thats $7/share. Company expects to add 300-350 to that number by 2010 that will increase EBITDA/share to almost $9.00/share. Prices of products risings. Sale of OXO will bring in another $450mm or $2.60/share. Between 2007 and 2010 cumulative after tax cash balances should build to over $22.50/share. Excellent Value play!

People owning CE also tend to own: INFAUPSAAAAPLAOBCCJCOP

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • EDA
    7.52
  • $7.37
  • 0.00
  • $7.37

Based on the Proforma Financial's from the proposed acquisition of American Apparel DCF analysis yield a valuation of $20/share post closing. Risk is the transaction does not close (not likely). Risk reward @ $10/share is 2 down 10 up. Very good Risk / Reward

People owning EDA also tend to own: ASYTCSQFTOLVLTVLOJMBAJMBAW

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • LMIA
    Lmi Aerospace
  • $11.72
  • +3.08%
  • $11.25

Company coming off a couple disappointing qrts. However if you listen to the 2/16/07 Conference Call the company expects 2nd half of 07 and all of 08 to put the company back on track. Large customer UTX Blackhawk Sikorsky Program announced 07 deliveries to increase by 53% in 07 and 35% in 08. LMIA said "LMIA has recently been awarded additional component and sub-assembly work on the Black Hawk program, which should benefit net sales in the second half of 2007 and beyond" & "We expect continued growth during 2007 from expanding production rates as well as additional work on the Boeing 787 and several new aircraft models being developed by certain customers" Assuming a 2007 EPS est of $1.23 with a 10% growth rate through 2010, DCF @7% calculation shows a valuation of around $25/share (10% discount in the multiple used to acquire K&F).

People owning LMIA also tend to own: APHBBWDUKENDPLHMEASNEWP

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • ESV
    Ensco Intl Inc
  • $48.03
  • -1.46%
  • $48.07

Only 1/3 of the fleet in GOM. The rest is located internationally. Company repurchasing stock. Fair Valuation is close to $70/share. Long Term Contracts in place and 96% Utilization rates. Expect 2007 EPS of $5.37/share. Strong sustainable cash flows. Resent comments from Q4 "We are positive about our 2007 outlook. International jackup markets are strong and are currently undersupplied. Two-thirds of our jackup fleet will be located internationally following mobilization of ENSCO 105 from the Gulf of Mexico to Tunisia and delivery of ENSCO 108. If the Gulf of Mexico jackup market continues to be soft, we believe this will result in further relocation of rigs to stronger international markets, which will tighten supply in the Gulf. "A number of our Europe/Africa and Asia Pacific jackup rigs have realized increases in day rates since the first of the year. As a result, we expect sequential improvement in our first quarter 2007 results. We believe that this day rate improvement, coupled with commencement of ENSCO 108 operations early in the second quarter, will contribute to another record year in 2007."

People owning ESV also tend to own: ADMAIZALLCBCNICOPCSC

TheStreet.com Rating: B- What is this?

  • +
  • ASI
    Amer Safty Ins Hl
  • $15.03
  • -0.60%
  • $14.93

Currently BV of 18.59 as of Q4 07, up $1.00 from Q4 06. Most industry comp's show equity price should trade at low end of 1.3X BV. Although no real catalyst in place for stock to move higher. Barrons last wrote about this company in 8/25/05 suggesting valuation could fetch $25. Probably a good valuation if a buyer is interested.

People owning ASI also tend to own: ADPICMNCRMTCYBNNBRPTCSOLD

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • WPCS
    Wpcs Internationa
  • $3.21
  • +0.63%
  • $3.23

Interesting small cap. Specializes in Design build engineering services for Wireless Infrastructure and Specialty Communication Systems. Lots of new contracts signed within last 6 months. Solid names on customer list. 2007 Guidance given in 9/06 and reaffirmed again on 12/14/07 is for revenue of $75mm (up 40%) and EPS of $0.72/share (up 60%). DCF assuming a 10% EBITDA growth rate and a 6X EBITDA multiple yields a valuation of $17.73/share. Company has been rolling up international players and consolidating within the industry.

People owning WPCS also tend to own: AMOTANIKCRGNGORXHAUPMOTMRVL

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

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Start Price

Return Value

Start Date

AWH 41.92 +11.52% Mar 12th
AIR 29.70 -32.49% Mar 12th
CE 30.19 -2.98% Mar 12th
EDA 10.90 -32.39% Mar 12th
LMIA 19.71 -40.54% Mar 12th
ESV 51.35 -6.47% Mar 12th
ASI 19.08 -21.23% Mar 12th
WPCS 9.91 -67.61% Mar 12th
KEYS 32.44 ------ Mar 12th
ALDA 16.08 -81.31% Mar 12th
NEWS 17.50 -83.37% Mar 12th
GS 200.19 -14.19% Mar 12th
MO 86.88 -78.66% Mar 12th
LECO 60.56 -11.97% Mar 12th
GRP 46.59 ------ Mar 12th
CI 140.77 -78.06% Mar 12th
NOBL 18.51 ------ Mar 12th
UNM 22.60 -13.58% Mar 12th
GTRC 43.98 ------ Mar 12th
NYX 84.90 -68.35% Mar 12th
LEG 23.61 -17.66% Mar 12th
HDNG 24.1301 -77.83% Mar 12th
OC 31.19 -24.50% Mar 12th
BBW 27.40 -81.61% Mar 12th
MEL 41.63 ------ Mar 12th
VTO 5.96 ------ Mar 12th

Average return:

-34.30%

Success rate:

5%

Deleted Stocks:

GOOG 452.86 0.00% Mar 12th
ARAY 25.372 0.00% Mar 12th
SYNL 26.11 0.00% Mar 12th
NM 8.09 0.00% Mar 12th

Tracking Started: 03-12-2007

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