Hotel Takeover Targets
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Created by James Altucher
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Date updated:07-05-2007

Its very bullish for investors that Blackstone (BX) is buying HLT for $47 in cash. For one thing, that values HLT at 16x EBITDA (in other words, 16 times, roughly, cash flows). Over the past year deals have been more likely to occur at 10-12x EBITDA. The higher the multiple, the more difficult it is for the buyout firm (in this case Blackstone) to pay down the debt they take on to make the purchase. The fact that this deal, a $26 billion deal, is occurring at 16x shows that private equity firms are willing to bear additional risk to win deals. Who benefits? Public stockholders. Lets not forget there is $1 trillion dollars that needs to be put to work.

With HLT being bought it makes sense to look at the other hotel companies with good balance sheets, decent earnings growth, that are trading for less than 15x cash flows. These are all now buyout candidates.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • WYN
    Wyndham Worldwide
  • $17.79
  • +4.22%
  • $17.33

With an enterprise value of $9.7 billion and EBITDA of $837 million the hotel company trades for just 11.6 times EBITDA. WYN owns 6500 franchiesed hotels plus various other vacation resorts, rental properties, luxury clubs, etc. People also don’t realize the effect that an aging baby boomer category is going to have on second home ownership at vacation resort clubs (golf clubs, etc). WYN is big in this category and also offers financing for vacation home ownership. In the Barrons Summary portfolio from June 11, Barrons states: “ Wyndham was spun out by Cendant last August, coming public at about 32 a share. It now trades for 35 and change and has a market value of $6.5 billion, though some fans are betting it's worth closer to 60 a share. "It's new, underappreciated and underfollowed," says Walter Scully, an analyst at Putnam Investments, which loaded up on Wyndham shares late last year."” I also like that WYN insider Stephen Holmes has been going into the open market and buying $1.5 million worth of shares for himself at $36.20 per share. This transaction occurred on May 15, 2007

People owning WYN also tend to own: BAMBOOMCMCSADEOECHOGIGMHLT

TheStreet.com Rating: D+ What is this?

  • +
  • HET
    Het
  • $0.00
  • N/A
  • $N/A

Harrah’s Entertainment (HET), the hotel and casino operator, is also on our list even though it has already agreed to be bought in a private equity transaction for $90 per share. The market has been skeptical of the deal closing by year-end because of concerns about financing. However, with this HLT deal being announced its clear the HET will close as quickly as possible. If the deal closes by year’s end, then the current return from here is 5.5%, or an annualized spread of 11%. Given that this deal is a lock, a safe, annualized return of 11% is a much better use of cash than a T-bill or any other equivalent fixed income investment. With a $27 billion market cap and $2.5 billion in EBITDA the company trades at just 11 times EBITDA so even if a deal were to fall through its highly likely another deal would occur even at a higher price than $90. Analysts exect that multiple to improve with estimates on earnings per share going from $3.75 in 2007 to $4.38 in 2008 and analysts also expecting revenues to improve from $10.44 billion in 2007 to $10.91 billion in 2008. On July 1, various directors bought shares at $85.34 per share. In the most recent Barrons, they listed various other companies, including HET, that offer attractive spreads if the deals they are involved in occur. This list includes Sam Zell’s acauiqisiton of TRB, which has over a 20% annualized spread right now as investors worry the deal will not close by year’s end.

People owning HET also tend to own: CCJCMGCROXINGNAAPLATVIBA

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • HOT
    Starwood Hotels&r
  • $31.25
  • +5.08%
  • $30.23

Starwood hotels - 12.8x EBITDA - Analysts expect earnings to go from 2.58 eps to 3.01 eps - directors have been purchasing shares - they've greatly exceeded analyst expectations for 4 qtrs in a row.

People owning HOT also tend to own: BLSGLWMRBKPNCQCOMROHSBUX

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • MGM
    M G M Mirage
  • $9.74
  • +4.51%
  • $10.05

- 14x EBITDA - analysts expect earnings to go 2.02 last year to 2.24 this year to 2.64 EPS in 2008 -

People owning MGM also tend to own: AERTASRPCBCAPHSILSIXF

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • ISLE
    Isle Of Capri Cas
  • $8.90
  • +9.61%
  • $8.40

- casino/hotel company - 8.3x EBITDA - retail expert Hayground Cove owns 6% -

People owning ISLE also tend to own: AFFXSONEASCABYDHETIGTLVS

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

  • +
  • MTN
    Vail Resorts Inc
  • $36.45
  • +4.86%
  • $35.28

- 10x EBITDA - Analysts expect EPS to go from 1.65 to 2.65 - 8.8 short ratio - some mild insider buying.

People owning MTN also tend to own: ALNYCOPEXBDJNJMSFTRSHSA

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • MCRI
    Monarch Casino &
  • $6.41
  • +1.91%
  • $6.48

- 10x EBITDA - underleveraged with $44mm cash in bank and no debt - analysts expect eps to go from 1.27 in 2007 to 1.44 in 2008

People owning MCRI also tend to own: ACFAESAMTAMWDBYIDDMXFSR

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

  • +
  • CHH
    Choice Hotel Int
  • $31.59
  • +2.07%
  • $31.34

- 14x EBITDA - probably underleveraged with $185mm in EBITDA and $184mm in debt - analysts expect about 10% growth.

People owning CHH also tend to own: HLSMOALKAMIEAMRAXPBUD

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

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Portfolio not tracked!

07/05/2007 16:01 PM CDT Asked by nellynandes
Starwood (HOT) is definitely getting bought out by the end of the year. It's a heavily discounted stock with its growth rate at way more than double its multiple. The balance sheet is solid and Starwood has about 500 hotels in its pipeline to be developed in the next 5 years or so. I'm sure offers have been made already, so don't be surprised if news comes out in the next couple months.

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