Gulf Oil Ideas
563 views
Rate Now: 1 2 3 4

average rating: 0.00 / 0 ratings
Created by Peter Winkler III
DESCRIPTION:

Date updated:07-24-2008

Putting pressure on congressional Democrats to back more exploration for oil, President Bush last week lifted an executive ban on offshore drilling that has stood since his father was president.

But the move, by itself, will do nothing unless Congress acts as well.

If Congress does allow drilling off the coast of Florida, these stocks will do well

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • GLF
    Gulfmark Offshore
  • $45.48
  • -1.11%
  • $45.80

Update II: Rigdon CFO said: "We're seeing record utilization at our yards" Update: GulfMark will pay $150 million in cash and offer 2.1 million GulfMark shares to Rigdon, making the stock portion of the deal worth about $133 million at the time it was announced. GulfMark will also assume about $268 million in debt and spend about $19 million to complete the construction of some new vessels. This deal will double their SE Asia fleet and add key ships in the North Sea. Will add $1-$2 EPS in 09 Price target: $110 Gulfmark Offshore is a $1 ½ billion dollar company which is significantly undervalued and is poised to move higher in the coming year. Right now, we are in a huge period of capital expenditures as companies push hard to extract oil. With oil at record prices, rigs are under substantial pressure to drill as much as they possible can in order to take advantage of the massive day-rate increase. This is where Gulfmark Offshore comes into play. Gulfmark employs vessels to services offshore oil rigs. They are practically a monopoly on the whole marine service sector, thus deserving a much higher multiple. The company has substantial control in the deep waters of the North Sea and South East Asia where margins have been increasing exponentially. I get the $110 price target by doing substantial bottoms up analyses on the company. In short: Gulfmark has the highest gross margins in the industry at north of 65%, vs. the industry average of 32.27% (50% higher) and operating margins of 41.42%, vs. the industry average of 14.06% (34% higher). Gulfmark currently has a P/E of 13.74 vs. the industry average of 18.58. I have confirmed with various industry experts and companies who actively use Gulfmark's services, they say that Gulfmark offers the best service in the marine service sector—thus making it extremely cheap. Analyst estimates on the company are ridiculously low. For starters, Gulfmark has exceeded analyst estimates the past 7 quarters in a row by an average margin of 38.5%. Q1, which has historically been the weakest for the company (due to weather issues in the North Sea markets) was a huge upside surprise for the company. Analysts were looking for a $1.1 a share for the quarter, yet Gulfmark reported $1.4 a share—that's a 27% earnings beat, in what is historically the weakest for the company. Estimates for Q2 are for $1.44, which is again, ridiculously low—I am looking for $1.95 per share. I get this through deep fundamental work on the company's position in the marine sector; simply put I take analyst estimates of $1.44 than I added a 35% premium to those earnings. Why 35%? As previously stated the company as exceed analyst estimates by 38.5%, the second quarter is always strong and the recent parabolic move in oil can only help the company. Earnings for the Q3 are for $1.63*35%=$2.25 and Q4 estimates are for $1.82*35%=$2.45. I see the company earning over $8 in cash this year. Because of its monopoly in South East Asia (where rates have increased over 60% YoY) and new contracts with PBR, I believe Gulfmark should trade at a minimum with its peers (ie, 18P/E). 18 P/E * $8 = $144. Whack this by 25% and you get $110 stock

People owning GLF also tend to own: AAPLACIAPABUCYCSIQDRYSFSIN

TheStreet.com Rating: A- What is this?

  • +
  • TRMA
    Trico Marine Svc
  • $20.21
  • +4.44%
  • $19.54

TRMA CEO just said that their stock is a “shocking bargain”--7-24-08 Down about 40%, since its merger with DeepOcean, Trico Marine is now setting up very well ahead of earnings. Market Cap (intraday)5: 414.39M Enterprise Value (22-Jul-08)3: 443.77M Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 6.79 Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-09) 1: 5.84 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): N/A Price/Sales (ttm): 1.64 Price/Book (mrq): 0.94 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 1.76 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 5.54 There is a lot of concern around the upcoming quarter. About 45% of the business is derived from the North Sea which was sluggish during 2Q. In this tape nobody wants to step in front of a miss. That said, My understanding is that every vessel that could work was working as of last week in the North Sea, so the pickup has materialized just didn't make it for TRMA's quarter. The story here is 1) Improving Gulf margins and 2) DeepOcean

People owning TRMA also tend to own: AAPLADBEAKAMBACOHCOPCTSH

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • TDW
    Tidewater Inc
  • $54.68
  • -1.73%
  • $55.45

Helps to re-supply offshore E&P companies. It provides marine supply vessels and support services across the spectrum of needs for energy companies (exploration, development and production). The services include towing and anchoring of offshore drilling rigs and equipment to prevent storm damage. Market Cap (intraday)5: 3.13B Enterprise Value (22-Jul-08)3: 3.17B Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 9.52 Forward P/E (fye 31-Mar-10) 1: 7.33 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.14 Price/Sales (ttm): 2.46 Price/Book (mrq): 1.65 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 2.50 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 6.162

People owning TDW also tend to own: DSXTRNAGDENBHMCHOSLOW

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • PDE
    Pride Intl Inc
  • $35.79
  • +1.73%
  • $35.27

Texas-based Pride International operates 64 offshore and land-based oil drilling rigs. The company's ultra-deepwater drill ships provide a large portion of sales, and three more are under construction. This falls in line with the company's plans to pursue a strategic shift toward pure-play offshore deepwater drilling. The deepwater drilling segment is both more lucrative and very stable relative to other parts of the business. Pride's fundamentals are quite impressive, with a nice record of earnings-per-share and revenue growth, backed with low debt levels. The company sports an impressive long-term EPS growth rate of 103%, while trading at a forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8. The last four year-over-year quarters have been extremely impressive, with earnings growth of 183%, 38%, 114% and 69%, respectively. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 60% this year to $3.61 vs. $2.25 last year, and analysts think earnings will rise another 16% in 2009. This estimate may turn out to be extremely low if the current demand that we are experiencing continues to increase. The company also has very low debt to equity ratio of 0.28. Market Cap (intraday)5: 6.90B Enterprise Value (22-Jul-08)3: 7.31B Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 7.90 Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-09) 1: 9.83 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.57 Price/Sales (ttm): 3.30 Price/Book (mrq): 1.88 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 3.43 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 7.804

People owning PDE also tend to own: BMRNBVXCHTRCOGOCRESYCROXCWTR

TheStreet.com Rating: B+ What is this?

  • +
  • HOS
    Hornbeck Offshr S
  • $38.83
  • +3.80%
  • $37.91

Drilling rigs and platforms are not self-sustaining, especially during hurricanes. HOS provides offshore support vessels to the industry, and its services and vessels are in high demand before and after any rough weather. The company has the youngest and second-largest OSV fleet in the Gulf of Mexico. It owns 35 new-generation vessels, plus 10 older conventional non-core vessels, with plans to growth the fleet to 65 by 2010. I like this one short and long term. Market Cap (intraday)5: 1.27B Enterprise Value (22-Jul-08)3: 1.77B Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 12.95 Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-09) 1: 9.52 PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 1.17 Price/Sales (ttm): 3.44 Price/Book (mrq): 2.13 Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 4.80 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 9.066

People owning HOS also tend to own: AMKRAXCACPYDLLREZPWFTDGEO

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

Portfolio not tracked!

Comments not available

ADD YOUR COMMENTS:

Barron's Roundup 9-6

Market’s Finest: Barron's asked professional investors who the world’s most respected companies are for its fourth annual survey. Some of the name that made the list in...

09.06.08 | 21:59 PM
Jim Cramer's Portfolios of the Week

Jim Cramer thinks market sentiment is starting to get extremely bearish, and it might be time for investors start looking at entry points in their favorite stocks. Despite ...

09.05.08 | 10:25 AM
Cramer's Take on Top-Searched St...

Disappointing economic news released on Thursday created a dismal atmosphere, with the Dow Jones plunging more than 300 points. Many of the nation's retailers said sho...

09.04.08 | 18:01 PM
Interview With Ken Fisher, Part VI

Good CEOs Vs. Bad CEOs By Stockpickr Guest Columnist Fred Fuld of Stockerblog.com Recently, I had the pleasure of interviewing Ken Fisher, head of the $30 billion F...

09.04.08 | 17:32 PM
more articles
General market Technical Analysi...
11.14.07 | 22:55 PM From author ZackAttack
Cramer cameos
09.05.08 | 23:56 PM From author Peter near Matanzas Inlet
The Presidential/Political Thread
01.02.08 | 08:05 AM From author Dave Cox
Reading charts
08.16.08 | 09:03 AM From author Peter near Matanzas Inlet
more forums
today 's lists
Stocks With Unusual Option Activity

Unusually active options can often indicate that a major event in a stock is about to take place, or that unsophisticated investors (using options in lieu of leverage) are ... more

TheStreet.com TV Videos - Sept. 5

These are some of the stocks mentioned today on TheStreet.com TV. Click the URL below each stock to watch the video. more

52-Week Low

Each day we'll select up to 10 stocks on the 52-week low list and give commentary. This is not a comprehensive list of the 52-week low list but just select stocks we think ... more