Date updated:03-08-2007
My personal portfolio.

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GOOG
Google Inc. - $589.87
- +1.18%
- $588.19
The transition from print and television advertising to on-line advertising. GOOG is best of breed and will be the primary beneficiary of this transition. Despite its high price, GOOG is cheap. The '07 earnings estimates currently call for $13.79/share at $490 price the forward P/E = 35.5. Given GOOG's growth rate, a 35.5 multiple is very low. By comparison YHOO forward PE = ~ 48.27 (28.48/.59) and it became clear last quarter that YHOO is losing share to GOOG. Since GOOG is winning the battle, GOOG should have the higher forward PE. Also, GOOG has historically surpassed its estimates whereas YHOO is has most recently come in in-line or pre-announced to the down-side.

-
GOOG
Google Inc. - $589.87
- +1.18%
- $588.19
The transition from print and television advertising to on-line advertising. GOOG is best of breed and will be the primary beneficiary of this transition. Despite its high price, GOOG is cheap. The '07 earnings estimates currently call for $13.79/share at $490 price the forward P/E = 35.5. Given GOOG's growth rate, a 35.5 multiple is very low. By comparison YHOO forward PE = ~ 48.27 (28.48/.59) and it became clear last quarter that YHOO is losing share to GOOG. Since GOOG is winning the battle, GOOG should have the higher forward PE. Also, GOOG has historically surpassed its estimates whereas YHOO is has most recently come in in-line or pre-announced to the down-side.

-
ATI
Allegheny Tech Ne - $34.82
- +2.32%
- $34.72
The increasing need for Titanium and ATI's increasing Titanium capacity. They will add 4 million pounds of capacity at their OR facility in the first half of 07 and again in the second half of 07. Their UT facility, 24 million pounds, will come on-line late in 08 and be at full capacity mid-09.

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ELOS
Syneron Medical L - $9.71
- -2.90%
- $10.03
A forgotten stock with a low multiple; ELOS is too cheap. With '07 earnings estimates at $1.73, the forward PE is 15.09 ($26.11 / $1.73). By comparison ILSE has a forward PE of ~ 29.93 ($24.84/$0.83) and Palomar has a forward PE of ~ 32.29 ($38.43/$1.19). Their new dental laser should bring attention to the stock, drive multiple expansion and increase earnings. ELOS predicts the dental laser to begin selling in '08. Also, the relationship with P&G to market ELOS' home version of the VelaSmooth product should cause an sharp increase in growth estimates. ELOS is under $100M in revenue a year with an estimated growth rate of 20%. P&G expects more than $20M a year when it launches a new product - so the 20% growth rate is currently understated. ELOS has struggled to meet earnings over the last few quarters, but these were based on Sales and Marketing expense increases (read discretionary expenses) and not sales short falls.

-
NYX
Nyse Euronext - $25.28
- 0.00%
- $25.40
Cost cutting, Sarbanes-Oxley relief and the prospects of making a global exchange will continue to increase earnings for the NYSE and will keep the stock moving higher.

-
GS
Goldman Sachs Grp - $167.63
- -1.20%
- $171.25
Best-of-breed investment banker. With record amounts of corporate cash on the sidelines, GS should continue to benefit from a robust M&A market. As for valuation, GS is the cheapest investment banker. At $208 and FY07 projections of $19.03, the forward PE is ~ 10.93. By comparison BSC has a forward PE of ($168.89/$14.77) ~ 11.43, MS has a forward PE of ($81.86/$7.31) ~ 11.2, MER has a forward PE of ($94.95/$6.65) ~ 14.27, AGE has a forward PE of ($67.63/$3.93) ~ 17.21 and NITE has a forward PE of ($21.39/$1.20) ~ 17.83. With GS you get the best-of-breed at a discount to its peers.

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AAPL
Apple Inc. - $196.97
- -1.47%
- $202.25
As AAPL changed the music industry with iTunes, they will change the Television industry with Apple TV (a.k.a. "iTV"). Why pay for cable, satellite, DVD Player, etc. all you will need is an Internet connection and you can download your programs directly to iTunes and watch it on your TV on your schedule. The iPhone is just icing on the cake.
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A. I'm still wary of travel/leisure stocks.
My observations when travelling over the
Thanksgiving holiday was that planes
were rarely full and the crowd at the
airport was much smaller than usual. db
A. The only one I own : SLX,
too hard pick a winner out all of them
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