Date updated:07-11-2007
Gene G. Marcial writes the Inside Wall Street Column for Business Week. The Archive of Gene's Stories can be found at: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/list/wall_toc01.htm

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SPWR
Spwr - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
Sunpower (SPWR ) has captivated investors seeking clean-energy plays, causing the stock to double, from 24 in July to 50.46 on Apr. 11. The company makes high-efficiency silicon solar cells and panels that generate electricity from sunlight. SunPower should be a part of any "clean-energy portfolio," says Michael Carboy of investment outfit Signal Hill Capital Group, who rates the stock a buy. One of SunPower's attractions is its galloping sales growth in the past four years, from $5 million in 2003 to $236 million in 2006. And earnings at SunPower, which was spun off by Cypress Semiconductor (CY ) in 2005, are expected to double, from 51 cents a share in 2006 to 98 centsin 2007, and again, to $2 in 2008, figures Carboy. Cypress acquired SunPower in 2004 and still owns 69% after the spin-off. Carboy sees sales hitting $680.2 million in 2007 and $1.2 billion in 2008. Apart from its explosive sales and earnings growth, SunPower's "tremendous franchise strength and crisp execution appeal strongly to us," says Carboy. David Edwards of ThinkEquity Partners, who also rates SunPower a buy, says it ranks tops in what he looks for: people, product, potential, and predictability. SunPower's five-year outlook, says Edwards, prompted him to raise his 12-month target from 50 to 60.

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AVRX
Avalon Pharmaceut - $0.091
- -9.00%
- $0.12
Avalon pharmaceuticals (AVRX ), a little-known biopharma focusing on small-molecule therapeutics for cancer, has teamed up with Big Pharma, including Merck (MRK ), for the use of its AvalonRx drug discovery system. On Mar. 6, Merck signed a pact to use AvalonRx to screen selected Merck compounds to identify inhibitors against an undisclosed target essential for the development of cancer. Avalon could receive up to $200 million in various milestone payments, plus royalties on products. Ren Benjamin of Rodman & Renshaw, who rates Avalon "outperform/speculative," says he is encouraged that the value of AvalonRx technology "is being recognized by the large pharma companies." Avalon, with 2006 sales of just $2.7 million, previously signed pacts with Novartis (NVS ), MedImmune (MEDI ), and Medarex (MEDX ). Avalon's agreement with Merck "should result in identifying first-in-class drug candidates," says Avalon ceo Kenneth Carter. He expects one more Big Pharma to sign up next year. Avalon also makes drugs and its lead product, AVN944, now in Phase 1 trials, aims to inhibit growth of tumor cells, including myeloma, colon, and lung. Patrick Flanigan of wr Hambrecht (it did banking for Avalon) says AVN944 could see peak sales of $500 million. He rates Avalon, trading at 4.67, a buy, with a year's target of 13.

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ADES
Ada-es Inc - $5.98
- -0.33%
- $6.04
Control of carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants has long been a hot topic, but states are now slapping limits on mercury output, too. And investors are watching. Illinois O.K.'d a regulation in December that requires power plants to retrofit activated carbon injection on the state's 56 boilers during 2008-09. "We're getting a lot more orders these days," says Michael Durham, president of ADA-ES (ADES ), which provides technology and equipment that help coal plants enhance existing pollution-control systems and improve their efficiency. Today, 12 states have mercury-control rules, and an additional 13 are considering regulations stricter than the existing federal Clean Air Mercury Rule. John Quealy of investment firm Canaccord Adams, who rates ADA-ES a buy, says state legislation is the primary impetus for adopting mercury control systems. That produced solid fourth-quarter results for ADA-ES. The strong sales in its mercury-emission-control unit provided most of the oomph. He sees the stock, now at 17.67, hitting 20 in a year. Another bull, William Burns of investment firm Johnson Rice, expects the mercury-control market to double by 2010. He forecasts earnings of 11 cents a share in 2007 and 18 cents in 2008, up from 2006's 7 cents.

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SYT
Syngenta Ag Ads - $27.60
- -9.69%
- $29.39
The boom in corn planting has been a boon to Syngenta (SYT ), a Swiss seed and crop-protection company based in Basel. Its stock has jumped 34%, to 39.17 in the 13 months since the company was featured in this column on Mar. 13, 2006. Some analysts see more upside ahead. The brisk demand for corn to make ethanol is boosting farmers' need for Syngenta products to thwart field pests such as corn rootworm. Syngenta Chief Financial Officer Domenico Scala says 2007 will be a "volume growth story" driven by an improved farm market. He says Syngenta, which posted sales of $8 billion in 2006, expects to return to shareholders $800 million in 2007 through increases in dividends and share buybacks. Patrick Lambert of Swiss broker Cheuvreux sees earnings of $12.35 a share in 2007 (before special charges), up from $10.96 in 2006. His 12-month stock price target is 54. Alexandre Pasini of Bank Vontobel says 2007 will be a strong year as U.S. corn acreage is forecast to rise 8%. This will lift commodity prices and lead to favorable planting conditions. He rates the stock "outperform."

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NSSC
Napco Sec Sys Inc - $1.82
- -2.26%
- $1.88
Having tumbled from 11 a share a year ago to 5.46 on Apr. 4, Napco Security Systems (NSSC ) is hoping a new product introduced in January will pull it up. Napco's Web-based surveillance set-up, VIP-GatewayX, lets people monitor activities in their homes or offices through live video on computers or cell phones. Another Napco product, Freedom 64, is an alarm that uses no code. A special key simply locks or unlocks a homeowner's door. Easy to use, the system, introduced in December, automatically turns the alarm on or off through existing dead-bolt locks. Napco missed its earnings estimates for the second quarter ended Dec. 31, 2006, prompting analysts to cut their forecasts. But James Clement of investment firm Sidoti retained his buy rating, with a 12-month target of 10, down from an earlier 14. A drop in European sales is behind the damage. CEO Richard Solloway says he expects VIP-GatewayX to be a "tremendous success" as major alarm companies placed orders and will advertise the product nationally. Joshua Jabs of Roth Capital Partners, also with a buy, sees Napco earning 31 cents a share in fiscal 2007 ending June 30, and 36 cents in 2009, compared with 32 cents in 2006.

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DVN
Devon Energy Cp ( - $69.34
- -10.19%
- $73.58
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_16/b4030098.htm Expect more mergers and acquisitions in the oil patch. As oil companies pump up their cash hoards at a dizzying pace, they are looking for growth in the U.S. rather than overseas, says Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer. Russia, Venezuela, and other Latin American countries are now less welcoming to U.S. oil interests, notes Metz, so Big Oil is looking for American outfits with outsize reserves. Oppenheimer oil guru Fadel Gheit says rumors have resurfaced that Exxon Mobil (XOM ) may go after Devon Energy (DVN ), a major oil-and-gas company and the largest U.S.-based independent natural gas producer, with an estimated proved reserves of 2.4 billion barrels of oil equivalents. "An Exxon-Devon deal makes sense," says Gheit, because of Devon's large properties. He notes that Devon leads in deepwater production in the Gulf of Mexico "where Exxon has little foothold." With oil at $62 to $65 a barrel, Gheit estimates Exxon's cash flow at $52 billion and says its free cash flow could be $22 billion. Even without a takeover, Devon shares, now at 71.45, will hit 90 to 100 by yearend 2008, he figures. When last featured in this column, on July 10, 2006, the stock was at 56. Tina Vital of Standard & Poor's (MHP ) says Devon has turned itself, through discoveries and acquisitions, "into a production-growth stock from a value-enhancing restructuring story." She rates it a buy. Both ExxonMobil and Devon said they don't comment on rumors.

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CVS
Cvs Caremark Cp - $28.85
- -3.06%
- $29.17
Deal or no deal, CVS was already a fave on Wall Street. And now that it has acquired Caremark Rx, No.2 in pharmacy-benefits management, Goldman Sachs (GS ), UBS (UBS ), and Matrix USA are even more bullish. CVS is the U.S. drug chain with the most outlets, and the combined company has been renamed CVS/Caremark (CVS). "We see the stock rallying not only for the long term but in the next two months as well," says Goldman's John Heinbockel, who upped his 12-month target for CVS, now at 33.98, from 39 to 43, with a buy rating. He also raised his 2008 earnings forecast by 15 cents, to $2.30 a share, and his 2009 estimate to $2.60. His 2007 estimate is unchanged, at $1.88. These figures are based on expected boosts in revenues from the merger: from $50 billion to $76 billion in 2007, from $54 billion to $91 billion in 2008, and from $58 billion to $99 billion in 2009. In 2006, CVS earned $1.56 a share on $43.8 billion. William Dreher of Deutsche Bank upgraded CVS to a buy even before the deal. He said he would raise his price target from 42 to 46 once the merger was O.K.'d. Ivan Feinseth of Matrix sees the current CVS 6.3% return on invested capital doubling in a year or two. "Operating profits will pick up," he says, "and cost savings will kick in." CVS completed the deal on Mar. 22 and paid $27.2 billion for Caremark, which contracts with outfits like employers or labor unions to manage their prescription drug plans. It earned $1.1 billion in 2006 on $36.7 billion.

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EXPO
Exponent Inc - $26.45
- -0.26%
- $26.05
Exponent (EXPO) is a real problem solver. It's a scientific and environmental consulting firm with clients in the automotive, energy, health-care, and government fields. Its stock, reflecting the small outfit's success, has bolted from 14 in August to 19.52 on Mar. 26. "It's an unusual company with a franchise in litigation support, which is an attractive growth industry," says David Sowerby, portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles, which owns shares. Exponent is involved in high-profile cases, such as litigation over the "Big Dig" in Boston and Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. Some 65% of revenue comes from litigation support and 25% from design and regulatory work in science and the environment. The rest is from Defense Dept. projects. Sowerby notes revenues grew every year since 1993 and earnings since 1998. Both should speed up again, he says, as Exponent gains new projects. David Gold of investment firm Sidoti rates the stock a buy, with a 12-month target of 26. He sees profits of 93 cents in 2007 and $1.06 in 2008, up from 83 cents in 2006.
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