Eno's Short Squeeze
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Created by EnoOnmai
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Date updated:12-22-2007

These are the results of a quick screen for potential short squeeze candidates. Using Yahoo's stock screener, I search these criteria...

Updated 12/21/07
Short Ratio >= 8 (this was originally 10, but that seems too long so I dropped down here. As of June 6 NTRI -- best bet I think -- had dropped down to 8.3 days).

Shares Short/Float >= 20% (not screenable in Yahoo screener)

Increase in short position or no significant short covering in last month -- compare prior month short interest to current month)

Market Cap between 1b and 10b

PEG "less than"OR= 2.0 (increased from 1.5)
Held Insiders >= 20
Held Institutions >= 40
These two criteria are a proxy for supply constraints -- of course the Insiders and Institutions can lend just as readily as retail, but it doesn't help their overall portfolio positions to do so, so I would expect some restraint from this

Return on Equity >= 20 (value criteria)
Return on Assetts >=20 (ditto)

I don't know if you all buy these criteria, but it looks like this filter is not too bad. Of course you'd want to do some fundy analysis too.

As of may 16 here's what pops up...
UPDATED 6-5-2007
UPDATED 6-11-2007 // removed VLCM and UEPS since share%float was too low to fit criteria.
UPDATED 6-12-2007 // I decided to move the PEG limit to 2. It's important on buys to try to avoid overvalue, but for a short squeeze option, I might not be so worried about that since I'll dump when it spikes. Added GHL.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • QSII
    Quality Systems I
  • $38.29
  • +6.36%
  • $34.50

12/21/07 Clearly a big drop since I created this portfolio. Fell off the screen because Market Cap is 897.6M PEG = 0.81 => 0.93 Short Ratio = 24.7 => 12.3 (Hmmm, interesting). Short % Float = 24.5% => 21.1% ROE = 34 ROA = 20 => 21 Held Insiders = 37% => 36% Held Institution = 64% => 63%

People owning QSII also tend to own: GRMNVSTHAAPLCOHCROXCSCOCTSH

TheStreet.com Rating: A- What is this?

  • +
  • NTRI
    Nutrisystem Inc
  • $15.09
  • +0.80%
  • $14.18

12/21/07 Again, fell off because of market cap. Looks like the shorts are smiling and unsqueezed. With this PEG and this short ratio, is this one going out of business? Cap = 2.4B => 937.9M PEG = 0.77 => 0.44 Short Ratio = 8.3 => 15.3 Short % Float = 41% => 57% ROE = 95 => 86 ROA = 63 => 61 Held Insiders = 36% => 28 Held Institution = 140% => 125%(does this suggest naked shorts somewhere?)

People owning NTRI also tend to own: GROWSMSIAGUCSCODISDIVXGS

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • MVL
    Marvel Entertainm
  • $29.00
  • +6.85%
  • $26.23

12/1/2007 - Still on the radar. A bit of a change in ownership, but this still looks like a candidate for a squeeze. ADDED 6-11-2007 Cap = 2.58B => 2.181B PEG = 0.78 => 0.81 Short Ratio = 17 => 9.2 Short % Float = 28% => 24% ROE = 34 => 66 ROA = 21 => 23 Held Insiders = 42% => 39% Held Institutions = 73% => 67%

People owning MVL also tend to own: ADIARWBEAVBRLKMPRVBDSNY

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • GHL
    Greenhill & Co
  • $67.58
  • +10.93%
  • $58.50

12/21/07 - Still on the radar. I'm really wondering what the problem is with this stock. Value parameters look great, no? ADDED 6-12-2007 Cap = 1.92B => 1.85B PEG = 1.59 => 1.03 (better value?) Short Ratio = 11 => 18.1 Short % Float = 26% => 32% ROE = 38 => 47 ROA = 26 => 37 Held Insiders = 42% => 46% Held Institutions = 67% => 69%

People owning GHL also tend to own: ADBECHKECLMSCMEEPAXLLTCMCO

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • FMD
    First Marblehead
  • $1.41
  • +4.44%
  • $1.40

Added 12/21/07 It's a shame I didn't run this screen yesterday as FMD went up 66% today because of Goldman's investment. Look like this is a missed boat. Cap = 1.748B PEG = 0.06 - Now there's value ;-) Short Ratio = 12.9 Short % Float = 24% ROE = 47 ROA = 32 Held Insiders = 38% Held Institutions = 77%

People owning FMD also tend to own: ABTDGXEPDGSKJNJJOSBJTX

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

Portfolio not tracked!

02/12/2008 23:15 PM CST Asked by EnoOnmai
I haven't found any good way to identify when a short squeeze does or has occured automagically so I can't really do anything meaningful to track this. The reason I'd want that is that it would let me test the search criteria. Given the lack of a trigger I can't really validate this easily this way.

06/29/2007 02:38 AM CDT Asked by stfo
You say in your intro that NTRI is %20 short/Float, yet on your description of the stock, it says %40....

I dont understand... is the
'Short % of Float' not the % on how big the short interest is?

05/17/2007 09:55 AM CDT Asked by EnoOnmai
Thanks lovemybob. I obviously deleted some text in error. I intended PEG < 1.5 and Held insiders > 20%.

05/17/2007 05:29 AM CDT Asked by lovemybob
It seems you mean the Held Insider value instead of PEG ratio? Otherwise, very interesting approach, will watch the progress!

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