Cypress Capital - Richard Arvedlund
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Date updated:03-26-2007

Featured in a Barrons interview on November 13, 2006. Arvedlund was fairly bearish on the US economy, stating that all the preconditions are in place for a recession. For instance: "whenever housing starts and permits drop by the rates of decline that have been exhibited - 10% to 20% -it has always preceded a recession." Also, "the other area that will hurt the economy is that all the major domestic auto makers have announced double-digit declines for the quarter and early 2007." And, "The third precondition for a recession is a flat to inverted yield curve. Flat to inverted yield curves only occur before recession, not slowdowns." In other words, "We now think there is a 40% to 50% probability of a recession. Next year should be a very difficult time for the US economy."

Although he's neutral on the effects of Dems vs Republicans on the economy he's nervous about any increase in the minimum wage: "That will raise unit labor costs throughout the economy...It will impact profit margins. It will definitely have an impact on profit margins."


As of 12/31/06

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • STA
    Sta
  • $0.00
  • N/A
  • $N/A

The entire insurance group is "dramatically underfollowed". Although all the rate increases are over, so are the megalosses of Katrina, etc. Not a high growth industry but P/E ratios are in the 10-12 area, which is too low.

People owning STA also tend to own: BNYCEWMFCOJAVLXMAGSOAKMX

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • DFG
    Delphi Fin Grp In
  • $22.63
  • +0.80%
  • $22.65

The entire insurance group is "dramatically underfollowed". Although all the rate increases are over, so are the megalosses of Katrina, etc. Not a high growth industry but P/E ratios are in the 10-12 area, which is too low.

People owning DFG also tend to own: BBUCYCOGCVDEVFLIRHSC

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

  • +
  • VZ
    Verizon Commun
  • $30.13
  • -0.10%
  • $30.23

Like the dividend yield and thinks they will be able to refinance all of their debt at lower interest rates.

People owning VZ also tend to own: AAAIGIBMINTCJNJJPMKO

TheStreet.com Rating: B- What is this?

  • +
  • WIN
    Windstream Corp
  • $9.93
  • +0.61%
  • $9.89

Dividend yield of 7%, enormous cash flow, converting rural customers to broadband and wireless.

People owning WIN also tend to own: ALDBMYCNEDSXGAINGOODHTE

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • SVU
    Supervalu Inc
  • $15.90
  • 0.00%
  • $15.94

Like management. "Its a defensive name in a sector where unit growth will continue fairly steady and won't be impacted by economic trends."

People owning SVU also tend to own: FREVS.OBITWMMMUNPBMYBUDMIC

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

  • +
  • JBLU
    Jetblue Airways C
  • $5.39
  • +1.70%
  • $5.33

"The most sensitivity to a decline in oil prices and rates."

People owning JBLU also tend to own: ASRAMXAPABDKBRK.BCELGCHS

TheStreet.com Rating: D+ What is this?

  • +
  • DOW
    Dow Chemical
  • $28.47
  • -0.45%
  • $28.58

4% dividend which they just raised. THey are repurchasing shares and they are at a low multiple. "They will benefit if, as we expect, raw-material costs come down."

People owning DOW also tend to own: DLSDVYGEINTCMATUSTWFC

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

  • +
  • CEF
    Central Fd Cda Cl
  • $13.88
  • +1.68%
  • $13.70

Play on silver and gold.

People owning CEF also tend to own: AAPLPGWCSUNWYHOOGLDIAGSLV

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

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