Cypress Capital - Richard Arvedlund
10420 views
Rate Now: 1 2 3 4

average rating: 3.75 / 4 ratings
DESCRIPTION:

Date updated:03-26-2007

Featured in a Barrons interview on November 13, 2006. Arvedlund was fairly bearish on the US economy, stating that all the preconditions are in place for a recession. For instance: "whenever housing starts and permits drop by the rates of decline that have been exhibited - 10% to 20% -it has always preceded a recession." Also, "the other area that will hurt the economy is that all the major domestic auto makers have announced double-digit declines for the quarter and early 2007." And, "The third precondition for a recession is a flat to inverted yield curve. Flat to inverted yield curves only occur before recession, not slowdowns." In other words, "We now think there is a 40% to 50% probability of a recession. Next year should be a very difficult time for the US economy."

Although he's neutral on the effects of Dems vs Republicans on the economy he's nervous about any increase in the minimum wage: "That will raise unit labor costs throughout the economy...It will impact profit margins. It will definitely have an impact on profit margins."


As of 12/31/06

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • STA
    Sta
  • $0.00
  • N/A
  • $N/A

The entire insurance group is "dramatically underfollowed". Although all the rate increases are over, so are the megalosses of Katrina, etc. Not a high growth industry but P/E ratios are in the 10-12 area, which is too low.

People owning STA also tend to own: BNYCEWMFCOJAVLXMAGSOAKMX

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • DFG
    Delphi Fin Grp In
  • $21.69
  • -2.17%
  • $21.95

The entire insurance group is "dramatically underfollowed". Although all the rate increases are over, so are the megalosses of Katrina, etc. Not a high growth industry but P/E ratios are in the 10-12 area, which is too low.

People owning DFG also tend to own: BBUCYCOGCVDEVFLIRHSC

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

  • +
  • VZ
    Verizon Commun
  • $30.43
  • -0.29%
  • $30.38

Like the dividend yield and thinks they will be able to refinance all of their debt at lower interest rates.

People owning VZ also tend to own: AAAIGIBMINTCJNJJPMKO

TheStreet.com Rating: B- What is this?

  • +
  • WIN
    Windstream Corp
  • $10.05
  • +0.20%
  • $10.03

Dividend yield of 7%, enormous cash flow, converting rural customers to broadband and wireless.

People owning WIN also tend to own: ALDBMYCNEDSXGAINGOODHTE

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • SVU
    Supervalu Inc
  • $14.94
  • -1.26%
  • $15.09

Like management. "Its a defensive name in a sector where unit growth will continue fairly steady and won't be impacted by economic trends."

People owning SVU also tend to own: FREVS.OBITWMMMUNPBMYBUDMIC

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

  • +
  • JBLU
    Jetblue Airways C
  • $5.20
  • -0.26%
  • $5.18

"The most sensitivity to a decline in oil prices and rates."

People owning JBLU also tend to own: ASRAMXAPABDKBRK.BCELGCHS

TheStreet.com Rating: D+ What is this?

  • +
  • DOW
    Dow Chemical
  • $27.93
  • -0.53%
  • $27.83

4% dividend which they just raised. THey are repurchasing shares and they are at a low multiple. "They will benefit if, as we expect, raw-material costs come down."

People owning DOW also tend to own: DLSDVYGEINTCMATUSTWFC

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

  • +
  • CEF
    Central Fd Cda Cl
  • $14.42
  • +0.35%
  • $14.32

Play on silver and gold.

People owning CEF also tend to own: AAPLPGWCSUNWYHOOGLDIAGSLV

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

previous next

Portfolio not tracked!

Comments not available

ADD YOUR COMMENTS:

Cramer's Take on Headline Stocks...

Not a Stockpickr member? Join the community today -- for free.Regardless of why a stock is in the news, it never hurts to hear what a professional investor has to say about...

11.20.09 | 11:48 AM
Jim Cramer's Portfolios of the Week

By Roberto Pedone Posted on Nov. 20, 2009 According to Jim Cramer, options expiration is driving the current market selloff. He pointed out that the only stocks that we...

11.20.09 | 08:09 AM
'Fast Money' Portfolios of the Week

By Roberto Pedone Posted on Nov. 19, 2009 According to CNBC’s “Fast Money” traders, the stock market is showing no signs of stopping its current bull run. Joe Ter...

11.19.09 | 11:13 AM
Squeezing the Shorts: Earnings G...

By Jonas Elmerraji Posted on Nov. 18, 2009 There are plenty of reasons for stocks to have the attention of short-sellers. Waning financials, a deteriorating business mo...

11.18.09 | 12:36 PM
more articles
The Presidential/Political Thread
01.02.08 | 08:05 AM From author Dave Cox
General market Technical Analysi...
11.14.07 | 22:55 PM From author ZA
Nymph's Trading Daily Trading Diary
04.13.09 | 01:10 AM From author Trading Nymph
Wealth distribution by race and ...
11.23.08 | 18:44 PM From author Valerie J
more forums
today 's lists
52-Week Highs

Here are some of the biggest stocks that made the 52-week high list on Nov. 20, 2009. more

Rising on Unusual Volume

Here are some stocks that moved up on unusual volume on Nov. 19, 2009. more

Analyst Downgrades

Analyst Downgrades or Estimate Reductions for Nov. 20, 2009. Read more here. more