Cypress Capital - Richard Arvedlund
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Date updated:03-26-2007
Featured in a Barrons interview on November 13, 2006. Arvedlund was fairly bearish on the US economy, stating that all the preconditions are in place for a recession. For instance: "whenever housing starts and permits drop by the rates of decline that have been exhibited - 10% to 20% -it has always preceded a recession." Also, "the other area that will hurt the economy is that all the major domestic auto makers have announced double-digit declines for the quarter and early 2007." And, "The third precondition for a recession is a flat to inverted yield curve. Flat to inverted yield curves only occur before recession, not slowdowns." In other words, "We now think there is a 40% to 50% probability of a recession. Next year should be a very difficult time for the US economy."
Although he's neutral on the effects of Dems vs Republicans on the economy he's nervous about any increase in the minimum wage: "That will raise unit labor costs throughout the economy...It will impact profit margins. It will definitely have an impact on profit margins."
As of 12/31/06
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STA
Sta - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
The entire insurance group is "dramatically underfollowed". Although all the rate increases are over, so are the megalosses of Katrina, etc. Not a high growth industry but P/E ratios are in the 10-12 area, which is too low.
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DFG
Delphi Financial - $20.92
- 0.00%
- $20.09
The entire insurance group is "dramatically underfollowed". Although all the rate increases are over, so are the megalosses of Katrina, etc. Not a high growth industry but P/E ratios are in the 10-12 area, which is too low.
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VZ
Verizon Communica - $29.57
- 0.00%
- $29.30
Like the dividend yield and thinks they will be able to refinance all of their debt at lower interest rates.
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WIN
Windstream Corp - $8.58
- 0.00%
- $8.46
Dividend yield of 7%, enormous cash flow, converting rural customers to broadband and wireless.
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SVU
Supervalu Inc - $17.31
- -2.04%
- $17.67
Like management. "Its a defensive name in a sector where unit growth will continue fairly steady and won't be impacted by economic trends."
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JBLU
Jetblue Airways C - $5.03
- +3.50%
- $4.84
"The most sensitivity to a decline in oil prices and rates."
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DOW
Dow Chemical Co. - $18.73
- 0.00%
- $17.40
4% dividend which they just raised. THey are repurchasing shares and they are at a low multiple. "They will benefit if, as we expect, raw-material costs come down."
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CEF
Central Fund Of C - $12.50
- 0.00%
- $12.50
Play on silver and gold.
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