Right now this formula applies to pretty much every stock I follow -- could be Apple (AAPL) or JPMorgan (JPM) or Chevron (CVX) or Chesapeake (CHK) or Wells Fargo (WFC) or Cisco (CSCO) -- but RIMM stands out as the textbook case of what's going on.

Right now this formula applies to pretty much every stock I follow -- could be Apple (AAPL) or JPMorgan (JPM) or Chevron (CVX) or Chesapeake (CHK) or Wells Fargo (WFC) or Cisco (CSCO) -- but RIMM stands out as the textbook case of what's going on.

Right now this formula applies to pretty much every stock I follow -- could be Apple (AAPL) or JPMorgan (JPM) or Chevron (CVX) or Chesapeake (CHK) or Wells Fargo (WFC) or Cisco (CSCO) -- but RIMM stands out as the textbook case of what's going on.

Right now this formula applies to pretty much every stock I follow -- could be Apple (AAPL) or JPMorgan (JPM) or Chevron (CVX) or Chesapeake (CHK) or Wells Fargo (WFC) or Cisco (CSCO) -- but RIMM stands out as the textbook case of what's going on.

Right now this formula applies to pretty much every stock I follow -- could be Apple (AAPL) or JPMorgan (JPM) or Chevron (CVX) or Chesapeake (CHK) or Wells Fargo (WFC) or Cisco (CSCO) -- but RIMM stands out as the textbook case of what's going on.

That's become the rhythm of the market. What's amazing to me is that while RIMM's sick fundamentally, Apple's in good shape, yet it is just giving us a variation of the pattern of RIMM. If you analyze any non-takeover stock through this prism you'll get the same response, but RIMM's the biggest and worst example. It's why we can't mount a sustained rally even though there are days like today when it looks like a million bucks.

RIMM's particularly relevant because the stock is cheap -- it has come down a lot from its high -- it has a decent following -- people really love the product -- and it can't get out of its own way. Research In Motion can't be taken over, so there's no shorting risk there. Its numbers are not going to bump up, and it isn't going to preannounce, so there's no really strong research call risk here after a jump like this. It's not going to announce a big buyback -- again, no short risk -- or pay a big dividend. Warren Buffett's certainly not going to buy it. And if the CEO gets his way, he will have to cash out a lot of stock to buy a hockey team and bring it to Canada. There's simply nothing that can undo the shorts on this one that anyone can see.