“Watch JPMorgan (JPM). In many ways this stock holds the key to the next level of investment in banks. It holds the key because it gives us a third bank, one that is retail-deposit-oriented, to allow us to merge the "too big to fail" banks if we have to. Understand, nationalization must be taken off the table. The reason that term even comes up is because the banks that we are most worried about, Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC), are too large to be taken over by any other bank as currently configured, and there aren't enough healthy retail deposit banks of any scale to absorb them. You can't give them to Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK), you know. Which brings me to JPMorgan. The FDIC had two banks healthy enough to give unhealthy banks to: Goldman (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS). They can both set up retail operations if they have to. If you took all of the bad assets and dumped them into the FDIC, Goldman and Morgan Stanley can run all of the other operations and take the deposits. But it would be far better to split up these banks three ways, some Goldman Sachs, some Morgan Stanley and some JPMorgan, with Morgan being the big retail bank for the country. Believe me, this is all disaster-scenario stuff, but if there is one thing that the previous administration lacked, it's a disaster scenario. If you can certify JPMorgan's health, you can allow it to rebuild its capital by giving it the deposits of Citigroup or Bank of America. That would get them there. The same thing, of course, applies to many of the troubled banks out there, the SunTrusts (STI), Comericas (CMA) and perhaps even the PNCs (PNC). Right now I believe JPMorgan is too hobbled. Maybe I am just listening to what Jamie Dimon has to say -- he has me plenty worried. Maybe I am looking at how bad the book of business is that it inherited from Washington Mutual. No matter what, it might not deserve the FDIC's largesse. No bank that needs government money should be entitled to the windfall of someone else's deposits. Of course, you could argue that Wells Fargo's (WFC) in the same shape as JPMorgan, close to being able to take deposit gifts. But I am worried that its Wachovia acquisition will preclude them from being a winner in this scenario. Doesn't mean it will be a loser. Just something in between.”

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