“Who still owns these stocks that sells them? Who still owns Hartford (HIG) or Lincoln National (LNC) or MetLife (MET) or Prudential (PRU) who doesn't understand the risks of annuities? Who can still be shaken out of good annuity companies by Genworth (GNW)? Or is it possible that because Genworth is not in compliance with the short-term debt buy program of the feds? Do people think that all of these companies will be downgraded and then lose access to the commercial paper bailout? Didn't they think of that before? Do they think that the annuities are safe but not the company, even as AIG (AIG) shows you that the annuity and the company are safe? Are there shorts out there who are nefariously trying to knock these down to get their credit ratings downgraded, as we know was done in the great battles of encirclement that the shorts waged against so many financials such as Bear and Lehman? One of the defining characteristics of this bear market is that we never run out of sellers. There seem to be no value guys around who say, "You know what, I am just going to own Hartford." Those types are gone. Which is why, when the graybeards say "things are cheap," I come back and say the cheapest stocks based on book value are the ones that are being crushed, like Hartford with a $41 book, according to the last financials filed. This group is at the fulcrum of the big conundrum. The decline of the group could be devastating if everything becomes Genworth, so bad that it isn't worth playing the inevitable futures rally that we get at some point because we are "oversold" or because the sellers have "overdone" their selling. Remarkably, when you read the Goldman note today that really crushes them, a note written by a different analyst than the patient Tom Cholnoky, whom I have liked for years and years, the central issue is that they will all need new capital. I have to tell you that I would think that the people who own these or bought them would have an inkling that could be the case. I would think that the buyers say "OK, we will just buy more." Nope, they just abandon them with, well, abandon. This characteristic of "cheap," until they need the money, is the other defining characteristic of this bear market. If you consider the two factors, no end to sellers, and no end to need for capital, you get the reason why some groups, particularly anything that needs financing, must be avoided no matter what, unless you can take huge pain. I am a seasoned pain-taker, but I have to admit that these declines do test your confidence and shake you out. Which is why, if a company needs money, people just sell first and ask questions or buy later. When the new analyst, Christopher Neczypor, rolls out coverage with a favorite idea, "Sell Principal Financial (PFG)," a really conservative company, though, you do feel the fear and the pain. The key line: "We believe capital raises are imminent." Knowing this, the answer to the query up top, "Who sells?", is everybody!’

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