“On July 15, Bank of America (BAC) traded at $18. Now it is at $32. Wachovia (WB) dropped to $8 back then, and now it is at $17. Wells Fargo (WFC) plummeted to $20, now it is at $30. These moves matter. They matter because they have held. I suspect they will get tested tomorrow when people start fretting about a recession or inflation or whatever they can make look negative off the employment number. But I do not believe those moves will be repealed. Now, what has happened in the interim since July 15? A scared President signed into law a bill that everyone knew would never be passed that basically saves Fannie Mae (FNM) and allows the FHA to buy $300 billion in bad loans. Given that the average mortgage that is being foreclosed upon is about $280,000, that's not a drop in the bucket. It also will help greatly for the banks mentioned above. That's a big change that nobody seems to care about. It is one reason why these stocks will not, in my opinion, violate those lows. The second reason I believe these stocks won't repeal these upward moves is that there is at last a price that Lehman (LEH) and Citigroup (C) and Wachovia and Bank of America can sell whatever CDOs they have and a way to do it. The insurance can be unwound that allegedly protects them, buyers can be found for pennies on the dollar, and Merrill (MER) teaches us that deals can get done that raise billions. The third reason -- widely disparaged on this site, is that there are real buyers for even the worst stuff -- Washington Mutual (WM), today. Why is that being dismissed? Why? The hedge fund that bought also took a stake in Sovereign (SOV). Equally as dismissed. Why? Does someone think the deposits have no value? Fourth, the commodity rally put tremendous pressure on this Fed to tighten. You take that tension off and you actually get chatter of another cut or two if a recession looks inevitable. I still don't understand where all of those stagflation people went. The odds of stagflation have dropped as heavily as the commodities that spurred the talk. Now of course, there are plenty of stocks that do poorly under this scenario: oils, minerals, coals. But think of the groups that win in this environment: financials, health care, potentially retail (because of lower oil prices), housing, technology (because it trades up on oils decline), food and beverage, cable and telco. These are very big groups. Lots bigger than what can be losing and is losing now. So, I reiterate, I believe the July 15 lows will stand. I think that if we get close to them all of the people who missed the first move will come in with a vengeance. And the bottom will be a lot more obvious to all.

From a recent Mad Money show: "I've like Mastercard since it went public, but I didn't like the quarter. I want you to sell; I want to take the profits in Mastercard."

From a recent Mad Money show: "They had a huge run, but I think to sell these stocks down here would be a mistake. I would be buying down here and not selling."

From a recent Mad Money show: "The Street felt the quarter wasn't strong enough, but I don't understand it. I think Allergan is good. I like it."

From a recent Mad Money show: "No, that's a refiner. I went over the conference call and I'm worried. I do not like the refiners here. I don't want this one."

From a recent Mad Money show: "I went over that conference call; I didn't see anything I didn't like. I like Pepsico (PEP) too. I like them both right here."

From a recent Mad Money show: "I like it, but I've circled the wagons and I'm only recommending Frontline (FRO) and Nordic American Tanker (NAT). Both of those get my approval, but the rest don't buy."

From a recent Mad Money show: "That company should be on fire, but nobody cares. As long as Boeing (BA) keeps going down, you can't own any of these."