Date updated:03-21-2007
From Jim Cramer.
"It's time for a special, end-of-quarter analysis of why the market is so resilient despite end-of-the-world pressures from residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, a belief that Blackstone thinks it is the top, horrible CPI and PPI, a crippled president, rate hikes in China and the rest of the world and an overall belief that the smart money says were are going to crash."
Cramer picked apart the market and outlined his take on DOW stocks.

-
AA
Alcoa Inc - $12.52
- -1.11%
- $12.73
Alcoa (AA) stays stubbornly in the low $30s even though it was back at $26 in the fall. I think that's because Alcoa is too much of a bargain for CVRD (RIO), BHP (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RTP), all of which at one time or another coveted this company. And why not? All of those commodities "arms" dealers are trying to have an armory of metals to service rest-of-world demand, and Alcoa fits in, even as aluminum seems to be the only metal not in short supply.

-
MO
Altria Group Inc - $18.81
- -1.00%
- $19.10
Altria (MO): With a split-up coming and an even higher yield on the remaining stock (which company will be kept in the Dow? interesting question, no?), Altria's not going much lower. You get 4.4% on the when-issued, which in 10 days will be full-fledged, and that can stop any barreling bear truck, given where yields are.

-
AXP
Amer Express Inc - $41.83
- +2.42%
- $40.89
American Express (AXP): Vulnerable. This stock has little in its favor other than low valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 on a 12% growth rate. Can it go much lower on fears the consumer is done? I say yes, and I would sooner be short this component than long.

-
AIG
Amer Intl Group N - $28.40
- -14.71%
- $32.48
American International Group (AIG): Reports a monster quarter, grows at 12% with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10, but has a bad seller who owns a ton of shares through lots of entities: Hank Greenberg. I believe that the valuation makes it less vulnerable, and its franchise is thought to have little in the way of exposure to "bad financials."

-
T
At&t Inc. - $26.94
- -0.19%
- $26.96
AT&T (T): Strong franchise that should be going up here as a safety play with a 4% yield. Not vulnerable.

-
BA
Boeing Co - $52.41
- -0.08%
- $52.43
Boeing (BA): Owing to the implosion of BAE and the great orders it has on the books, Boeing's been climbing throughout this period. Shares are always subject to a quick 2- or 3-point takedown, but the company's order book makes it resilient. Buyers are likely to come in at the top of the $80 range as the bull market in aerospace remains totally intact.

-
CAT
Caterpillar Inc - $58.39
- +1.64%
- $57.82
Caterpillar (CAT): I bought a little CAT on Friday for Action Alerts PLUS owing to the amazing performance of cohort players, Cummins (CMI), Terex (TEX) and Manitowoc (MTW). Caterpillar is always perceived as vulnerable to U.S. housing, but its buyback program and rest-of-world orders, plus the persistent high price of oil, make this company the one to buy on weakness. Shares are down 15% year over year, with 12% growth and a P/E of 11. Without a number cut, it seems like it will be supported by its near-52-week low status.

-
C
Citigroup Inc - $4.11
- +1.23%
- $4.08
Citigroup (C): With a 10 P/E on 10% growth, a 4.4% yield and the possibility that Chuck Prince will be fired, this stock is invulnerable here, in my opinion.
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A. Mr. Partridge can answer that, but not
until tomorrow maybe.
He has not indicated a preference for
keeping one or the other,
which leads me to believe he will keep
both.
A. The only one I own : SLX,
too hard pick a winner out all of them
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