Date updated:04-20-2007
For these contests the goal is not necessarily to find the best stocks for the next century but the ones that can either snapback this week because of an irrational selloff last week, or they have some other potential catalyst that can create explosive potential during the coming week.
I focused on several portfolios for coming up with this list:
Biggest % Losers , primarily from last Thursday, as I think the snapbacks probably happen sometime Mon-Wed.
Latest Activist Situations, as these could get heated during the coming week.
Most Volatile on Earnings Day and I combined that with looking at what earnings plays were coming up this week, combined with who has sold off the most this year but have had good funds accumulating their shares.

-
IOTN
Iotn - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
- 24% of float short - SAC long - Govt deciding on several large purchases

-
ESPD
Espd - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
- stock sold off 9% Thursday when they announced they would not allow themselves to get taken over by Tullet Prebon - Company has $3.75 per share in cash - Chapman Capital and WC Capital, activists, trying to get on board and think the company could be massively profitable if they stop investing in unprofitable ventures - I think snapback possible this week after the 9% selloff.

-
AV
Aviva Plc - $12.7625
- 0.00%
- $N/A
Avg change on earnings day: 10.44% - Earnings on 4/26 Who Will Cisco Buy Next? Top 25 Stocks Since 2002 Bull Market. Avaya is a direct competitor with CSCO in the entprise. CSCO can buy them, scoop up their customers, and the acquisition will be immediately accretive. AV trades at just 6x cash flows, in part, because CSCO cominates them across the industry. With $900mm cash in the bank, $650mm in cash flows, and only a $4bb enterprise value this is just chump change for CSCO and cheap. Down from a high near 15 in January as analysts have revised earnings estimates down. Trades for 6.8 times cash flows. With almost $900mm net cash in the bank. Insider buying from directors at $12.09-$12.52 per share.

-
AMZN
Amazon.com - $126.20
- +4.63%
- $123.00
- avg change on earnings day: 10.43% - 4/25 Retail specialist Hayground Cove in the stock. One of my favorite bloggers, Stockerblog, created a one-stock portfolio just containing Amazon where he states: "Here are some positive bullet points about Amazon: 1. Quarterly revenue growth year over year was 33.9% 2. Return on equity is 56.13% 3. Stock has a reasonable price sales ratio of 1.5. 4. The stock, which closed at 38.10, is within a couple points of its three month low. 5. The company just began their video download-to-TV service in conjunction with TiVo Inc. (TIVO) [Disclosure: I do own some TIVO which I have had for several years. I just can't seem to get away from my stock holdings]. SIDENOTE: Is there a merger in the works between Amazon and TiVo? I checked the headlines for Amazon for the last two days and out of the 20 headlines, TiVo was listed 8 times in the headline, and Amazon was listed once in the headline. 6. Amazon's Unbox software is Vista compatible. 7. Analysts' opinions are 11 sells versus 6 buys, the worst ratio it's had in the last three months. Out of favor so maybe a contrarian buy now? 8. Gross annual profit up 20.4% over the prior year. 9. Interest expense has been dropping significantly over the last three years, down 15% in '06 from '05. 10. Cash and current assets are increasing. 11. Long term debt is decreasing. 12. International sales have increased 28% in '06 versus '05."

-
SNDK
Sandisk Corporati - $20.82
- -0.72%
- $20.56
- avg change on earnings day: 12% - 4/26 Business 2.0's Fastest Growing Tech Companies. From Business 2.0 "When the iPod's success cut into its sales of memory chips to makers of MP3 players, SanDisk started making its own. It's now the No. 2 U.S. player. More than 150,000 retailers sell its memory cards for digital cameras."

-
ANDW
Andw - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
ANDW: - avg change on earnings day. 8.64% - earnings on 4/27 - moves 9% on the day after earnings day on average - reports earnings on 5/3 - copper prices stabilizing could create upside surprise in margins - they've had 2 quarters to adjust to the Alcatel-Lucent merger so I think forwad guideance could be a surprise - 12mm shares short - Chapman, super activist, is a shareholder. My guess is he's found additional ways for them to cut costs. - They were once a takeover target but deal fell through. Could be a target again.

-
JASO
Ja Solar Holdings - $3.71
- -1.85%
- $3.88
- Recent IPO from China in solar power (and different from the rest) - Pure-play on China's voracious appetite for solar power -- and its margins and sales growth reflect that tremendous growth potential. - The largest sharheolder of JASO also makes the monosilicon used in solar cells and they just announced they are tripling production because of demand - If comparing valuation to Sunpower (SPWR) then price would be $40+ - 15x forward earnings

-
SMSI
Smith Micro Softw - $7.40
- +5.87%
- $6.95
SMSI - Snapback play: share selloff this week from $20 to $15 on the basis of a downgrade from Jefferies from Buy to Hold and a price target move from $24 to $21. - Earnings May 2 - The analyst at Jefferies was worried shipments from VZ would slow over the next quarter or so as people moved from XP to Vista but I don't think that move is happening so fast. - Earnings guidance for upcoming year will probably include new relationship with S
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A. Also dont like that it has relations
with the god aweful never profitable
automobile industry, but is moving its
resources to the building side and
conserving energy for them.
A. The only one I own : SLX,
too hard pick a winner out all of them
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