Confer Calls May/June 08 Nymph's Take
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Created by Trading Nymph
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Date updated:06-13-2008

Hi guys...these are my notes on conf calls that I am reading in May/June. I rate them 1-5 stars and give my take on what I think about them. Then the fun part...I track them to see how well I did on my analysis. If you look at some of my past portfolio months it is a great take on the next qtr earnings for whatever it is worth.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • MPS
    Mps Group Inc
  • $13.64
  • +0.15%
  • $13.63

4-30-08 Transcript 5 stars for ROW Nymph's Take- They find Jobs for people all over the world and really see no slow down. CEO Payne; We're Pleased and numbers just as expected. Revenue up 11% yoy, eps up 18% yoy. Business Environment a lot of people think recession CEO doesn't see it that bad..not as good as 04-06 but not as bad as 01...cuz of ROW. Total perm placements 5.8% v 5% yoy of revenue. Net Income up9%. 1.2M loss on investments in Deferred Compensation Plan in Stock Market. N. American IT up 7% yoy. Increase in Modis and Beeline. N.America Professional Services up 10% yoy. International IT up 12.5% yoy International Prof up17%.Strong March for perms..temps soft due to easter. Even with economy going high end of range. Growing Enginerring biz 300M. Big Clients operate in RFP (request for proposal) basis so they move slow so this economy can be soft for the year. German Market is going to be stronger for some yrs. to come. Financial services down 20%. Turn Key Law Offices are HOT...set up real fast. 1.06B Market Cap, 12.92 p/e, 17.30% qt growth. The CEO said this about our economy.."Based on our experiences then, current market conditions are much more positive than what we saw during that period. I believe there is a number of reasons for this, and I’d like to go over those in a little bit of detail here. Prior to 2001, the economy was experiencing a number of what we would call bubbles in the hiring markets which created a lot of irrationality. Telecom, Y2K, e-business, and the Internet in general had created a really frothy job market, not just in IT but in another professional specialties as well. We really don’t see any of that today, and today our base of clients really doesn’t reflect this type of bubble and sort of irrational hiring behavior. I believe that a second reason that this job market is different than what we saw in 2001 is that our client companies are no longer as reliant on the United States as their primary or sometimes even sole source of customers. As I look at many of our clients today where we are doing a lot of work, I see customers that are selling to markets in Europe, selling to markets in Asia and Latin America. With the dollar weak as it is, American products are certainly very attractive to foreign customers at this point, and because the products are being sold abroad but a lot of the work is being done here, this of course gives us the opportunity to fill positions right here in the United States, and then I think a final important thing to remember is that part of the reason that the job market got so bad in 2001 was because of the shock to the economy that was created by 9/11 and ripples that came after that, and fortunately we have not seen a disruption of this sort of magnitude since then. So with all this being said and comparing 2001 to now, I believe it is fair to ask how the current job market compares to the period of 2004 to 2006, which we view that as probably the most period within the current hiring cycle that we are in right now. Without a doubt, client demand was stronger in those years, and placements were certainly easier to come by, and you could look at our numbers as evidence, as during those years, we would tend to see quarter-on-quarter revenue growth rates in the teens, and then when we look here at the first quarter, our organic growth rate was about 6%. So there’s no doubt that revenue growth has slowed a little bit. At the same time, the hiring conditions that we are seeing now are actually pretty good, and we believe that if we work hard and if the economy does not deteriorate too much, we will continue to be able to grow our business. Another important point is that since the unemployment rate for college-educated workers is still just a little over 2% and because we only place candidates in that category, we believe demand for our services should remain reasonably strong.

People owning MPS also tend to own: CSXPSSIAACNALDAMCCBER

TheStreet.com Rating: D+ What is this?

  • +
  • WYNN
    Wynn Resorts
  • $64.09
  • +0.87%
  • $62.81

5-1-08 Transcript 3 stars for Macau Nymph's Take- Vegas is in a world of hurt, Macau is jumping..but Steve HAS to build in Vegas...go figure. CEO Wynn: Las Vegas EBITDA down 38% (table hold down) Macau up 31.2% qoq, 62% yoy. Macau 60% growth. 07 opened expansion in Macau. Crazy action there. Slots in macau 310 v average 140, non gamble revenue up 42% there. Retail revenues doubled. Vegas hurt by economy. Normally 1st qtr has Whales..Conventions doing ok..cost saving in place. Wynn says he has seen slow downs in Vegas before. HE GAVE US A HEADS UP for April...China and USA higher hold rate 25%, rooms at 96.6% v 97.5% yoy, But a lot of comps. Expenses are down even w/Spamlot which will be ending in July. Tables 204 v 250M yoy. Macau commissions and junkets..Wynn pays the least "Walmart of Macau"..June 15 Encore in Macau, Cotai in X-Mas.Wynn doesn't know how deep the market softening will be. They are "Exporters" with ROW coming to them. Wynn and Okada have 13D that they can't sell unless other ok's it...building new casinos in Vegas ROW 50% in Vegas. 2.4M shares repurchased. Building Golf Course too. 12.22B Market Cap 46 p/e..Death Cross..missed by a penny.

People owning WYNN also tend to own: AAPLBLE.TOCHINACTRPELR.TOEMUFCX

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • ALSK
    Alaska Communicat
  • $6.84
  • -4.34%
  • $7.11

Actually 3-17-08 Transcript 2 stars cuz of competition Nymph's Take- AT & T came into the Alaska Market..could take away their edge. CEO Pelletier..Love a short cc. They had some accounting issues..increase EBITA 6Million..it was an isolated issue. Superb Evecution with 10% growth. Wireless up 19%, enterprise revenues up 45%. Reputation of best Network. Harder Comp yoy 1st qtr. cuz of 1.4M in reserves true up and 700,000 in out of period CETC which is not this qtr..a lot of growing. AT and T took over competition by buying Dobson..Reputation could be at risk??? COOL PART OF CONF CALL...ALASKA ECONOMY...USA slow down and Oil $$$$..."THE State has record revenue at the State level 8.5B in taxes from Oil Producers" No housing Bubble, No Mortgage Default. Remember 2nd and 3rd qtrs are stronger.

People owning ALSK also tend to own: TTUPWMAAPLBAGOOGORCL

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

  • +
  • OSK
    Oshkosh Cp
  • $39.01
  • +2.52%
  • $37.79

May 1 Transcript 4 stars for ROW, none to the USA Nymph's Take- USA is in trouble. ALSO STEEL COST. CEO Bohn- Another GREAT Qtr to report eps .97..up 42.6% yoy. Sales 1.8B up 6.7%. Global Access Equip and defense biz up 250M. Weak USA economy and raw cost pressures. US RECESSION and will do price increases. Reaffirm guidance. JLG ROW doubled while N. America down 20%. Strong Europe. In Congress there is FUNDING BILL for trucks armor kits for Marines. Working with Northrop on Vehicle. Fire and Emerg in USA soft. Airport products strong Modest single diget growth. Domestic Refuse vehicles strong. BACKLOG access equip down 29.8%. USA double digit down for the full fiscal year. Higher Steel Costs in the 2nd half. Flooding in UK helping.

People owning OSK also tend to own: AESBERODPPGHTXUWLPASD

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • TGT
    Target Cp
  • $50.49
  • +0.08%
  • $50.43

May 20 Transcript 3 stars for Towels Nymph's Take- Inflation in clothes is what we get to look forward to. Plus Food and Commodities are why Costco and Walmart works. President-G. Steinhafel, Difficult sales climate been buying back shares. Consumer is not spending in High Margin Discretionary items like clothes and house furnishings..so Kohls, Macy,JCP have a drop in sales. Target is going to focus on Commodity, food and pharma in Ads and Expect More, Payless Stuff..going after Dollar World? SG and A is the lowest in 20 qtrs. opened 18 new stores and 8 Super Targets..eps .74 v .73 yoy.They are pleased with Credit Card Segment-net write offs increased 7.6 v 6 qoq. problems with Florida, Az, Nv and Calif. 2-3% growth in our Sluggish Economy. But still will open new stores in 09. Consumers are selective..they buy Replacement Cushions (very hot) and skip over new patio chairs..buying Towels and Sheets..but not full Bedroom sets. Converse Shoe Brand has been successful..Footware pretty healthy. This is what CEO said about Inflation..."Gregg Steinhafel Well, we'd love nothing better to have the inflationary pressures go away. As you know, more of the food and the consumables were the leading edge indicators of what was happening, and we've been experiencing some inflation in those businesses since the fourth quarter and throughout the first half of this year. As we move into the year we're seeing more inflation in those other discretionary categories where we typically haven't seen them in the past. So there is some slight inflation in apparel due to raw material costing out of China, transportation expenses and lack of subsidies. And then other categories such as home products, we're seeing greater levels of inflation in the higher single digit and low single digit, and our response has always been to work with our suppliers so that we don't have to accept them or we can delay them or we can accept a smaller portion of them. But if they do come to us and we have to accept them, which in some cases we do, we're looking to pass those along in the marketplace as a matter of last resort. But we're planning on increasing retails in those businesses where we have to absorb some of these price increases"

People owning TGT also tend to own: CCATDEFNMFREGEKO

TheStreet.com Rating: B- What is this?

  • +
  • ATVI
    Activision Blizza
  • $11.42
  • 0.00%
  • $N/A

May 8 Transcript 4 Rocking Stars Nymph's Take- They say you are only as good as your NEXT performance. Fantastic Qtr...but will it continue? CEO Kotick- 16 consective year of growth. ROW 100% revenue increase yoy. Combining w/Vendi Games to go after Asian On-line Market and other on-line gaming. Recent release of 1st Downloadable content for Call of Duty 4. Net Revenues for qtr Doubled yoy. Eps gaap .14, non gaap .17. Margins 46% v 58%. eps for the yr up 293% higher Tax Rates 35 v 22 yoy. Dec Qtr will have on-line revenue. New Releases..Quake Wars: Enemy Territory in late May. Kung Fu Panda in June. They are bring-in Guitar Hero Aerosmith, Guitar Hero 3 or 4 (lost count) and Guitar Hero Kitchen Sink...they say Europe is one year behind on their Guitar Hero...we may be 15 minutes on ours? Also, movie ties in Madagascar 2, Monsters v Aliens 3-D Dreamworks., Spidey for x-mas. Best part of the call...an ANALYST is SPEECHLESS on such a great performance. Company won't talk about Blizzard Deal and plans for Asian mmo field. Blizzard is Korea and China.

People owning ATVI also tend to own: CCJCELGCRZODSXDVNEMCGDX

TheStreet.com Rating: B+ What is this?

  • +
  • ROG
    Rogers Cp
  • $29.50
  • -1.60%
  • $29.88

May 1 Transcript 2 out 4 stars Nymph's Take- They have 2 GREAT divisions and 2 that Suck. So split up the company?? CEO Wachob-BTE sales driven by High Performance Foam and Power Distribution Systems..The Foam is used by Commercial Aircraft they are working 7 days a week with 3 shifts. Flex Division is down. High Definition and VOIP working. EPS over Guidance. .48 v .55 yoy, lower sg and a. Sales up 11% yoy. Joint 50% ownership in foam. 30 M share purchase..Cell phones are Declining. THIS NEXT QTR is their SLOW QTR. THE COMPANY IS 73% ROW. Make Backer pads too. Biz in going strong for the next 2 to 3 years in parts for Asia Locomotive..El Lamb biz gets smaller...p/e is 32 v p/e is 17 for industry.

People owning ROG also tend to own: EKSPIRGLYTNVECABBAHCIBKHM

TheStreet.com Rating: D What is this?

  • +
  • TMRK
    Terremark Worldwi
  • $6.39
  • 0.00%
  • $N/A

June 2 Transcript 5 stars, but missed qtr. Nymph's Take- they missed the analyst est by 4 cents ouch..but good company..one for radar CEO Medina..Extraordinary Fiscal Year. Q4 booking were the best ever. Business is booming. Raising guidance. Exceeded goal of 20% of the 50,000 sq ft data center. They say they have a superior and unique biz model. .1 World class carrier-neutral facility. 2. Full Suite of managed services inc infinistructed utiltiy computing platforms..best foundation for running mission critical applications. High Secure Data Centers. 36% revenues Feds. 64% Global Comm enterprises. Revenues 96% yoy, 91% receiving. SGA 8.8 v 8.6 yoy 26% of revenue. 340M total debt. Q1 selling 4M in equip. Also their platform allows customers to cut cost 8-15%. Brazil w/nap- largest piering point in Latin America. VERY BULLISH..Disaster recovery and biz continuity robust pipeline.

People owning TMRK also tend to own: ACMAINVARCAFAUYBTUCOPCPNO

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

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Start Price

Return Value

Start Date

MPS 10.73 +27.12% May 1st
WYNN 105.34 -39.16% May 2nd
ALSK 11.53 -40.68% May 7th
OSK 39.14 -0.33% May 7th
TGT 54.92 -8.07% May 21st
ATVI 32.91 -65.30% May 21st
ROG 39.19 -24.73% Jun 1st
TMRK 6.30 +1.43% Jun 3rd
SWHC 5.19 -10.98% Jun 13th
AVB 96.27 -26.12% Jun 13th
TDW 65.62 -31.01% Jun 13th

Average return:

-19.80%

Success rate:

18.18%

Tracking Started: 05-01-2008

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