Cineman and Old Media Stocks
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Created by Barrons
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Date updated:05-05-2007
From Barron's 5-7-07
"An area currently in vogue, which I find very interesting, is movie-theater chains. Three or four years ago they got into trouble because they grossly overexpanded, borrowed a lot of money and lost money. Some of them went bankrupt, some of them got absorbed. The characteristics of this business are terrific cash flow and no inventory. Once you stop spending on new theaters and new screens, there are no capital expenditures. If you have ever gone to a movie theater and spent $4 for a bag of popcorn, you know the gross margins are ridiculous. Cash flows are terrific. Now, the private-equity guys are bringing them public...There is fairly high confidence that there will be nice incremental box-office receipts this year versus last. That produces high earnings and great comparisons. Whether or not you raise interest rates or housing is strong or not strong, people are going to go to the movies to see these films, buy popcorn and generate a lot of income. The companies will be paying down their debt and improving their balance sheets. Then, there's the alternative programming that will create excitement."
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CNK
Cinemark Hldgs In - $11.73
- -0.09%
- $11.67
No Analysis added
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RGC
Regal Entertainme - $12.30
- -3.07%
- $12.70
No Analysis added
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CKEC
Carmike Cinemas - $6.25
- -1.42%
- $6.15
No Analysis added
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JRC
Jrc - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
"I own the Journal Register [JRC], which publishes weekly newspapers, local newspapers and local content. It's based in Yardley, Pa. They just sold some papers at about 10 times Ebitda. They are selling at eight times earnings and they just had a poor quarter. They are affected by housing and auto sales. It's the worst possible environment for them now, but the cash flows are excellent."
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MNI
Mcclatchy Co Hld - $2.95
- -0.67%
- $2.94
"It has got big book value. It has got great cash flows. It has good management. So the bet is at these lower levels, a good management begins to identify more with the new environment and build up Internet-related activities. Next year is an election year, and that tightens up the advertising environment. The rates tend to be better, and people tend to read more newspapers, be more aware of what's going on. There should be a cyclical pop next year."
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05/08/2007 20:06 PM CDT Asked by paul simenauer
JRC has a lot of upside potential. The only thing not in its favor is its 78% debt load, although cash flows from operations are extremely stable. Lots of downside protection, however.
05/08/2007 20:04 PM CDT Asked by paul simenauer
Take a look at Valassis in this sector as well. They are currently priced extremely well at $20.00 a share, but if shares were to drop again (traded as low as 13 at one point), I would be a buyer here.