Date updated:04-02-2007
Looking for ugliness and fear. These are not stocks for a 401K plan. Just stocks that can pop 40-50% on any good news at all.
The Subprime mess is the gift that keeps giving. The media thinks the paper is worth 80 cents onthe dollar but legit banks are pricing the paper at 95 cents on the dollar. ALl of the subprime guys, even NEWC, will live to fight another day.
Next, I look at high short interest stocks with insider buying (check out OPSW and OPWV below).
Also, I look at some refineries that will benefit from the crack spread and also some fear situations around the TXU deal.

-
FMT
Fmt - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
FMT - This bank been unfairly crushed due to subprime mess.Unlike NEW and LEND, FMT never even had a liquidity crisis because they lent on deposits. Stock now priced for bankruptcy, pricing at zero their commercial real estate lending biz which is doing fine.

-
IMH
N/a - $0.1004
- 0.00
- $0.1004
IMH - Not even a subprime lender. Mostly alt-a loans right above subprime but alt-a being dragged by media into the mess. Trades for 1/2 tangible book value now. Can easily see $10+.

-
NFI
Nfi - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
if this company can sell all or part if its loan portfolio and/or secure additional financing it will pop (Check out the massive short interest over 40%).

-
ALJ
Alon Usa Energy - $7.19
- +1.70%
- $7.08
If the Crack spread continues to widen I would chase (though not get caught in) the momo in DK and ALJ. Both of these are small refiners (with retail exposure through gas stations and the crap they sell) that will continue to pop if the crack stays high (and goes higher)

-
EEE
Evergreen Energy - $0.302
- -2.58%
- $0.3101
EEE - clean coal technology. Has a big deal with TXU but stock hit because of KKR buyout. People think the KKR deal will affect the deal with EEE but environmentalists will insist on EEE deal to allow KKR deal to happen. Stock fell from 9 to 6 and can easily climb back up once the dust settles.

-
OPSW
Opsw - $0.00
- N/A
- $N/A
OPSW - high short interest. Short ratio of 11 (11mm shares short, 1mm shares volume per day), $90mm cash (so they can buy back shares to scare shorts) and director, Mike Ovitz, just bought $1mm worth of stock at current prices. Down from 9 to 7, could go right back up if the company announces they are going to start buying back shares and squeezing the shorts.

-
OPWV
Openwave Systems - $2.36
- 0.00%
- $2.36
OPWV - turnaround story. Going to be profitable over next year. Insiders are buying millions of dollars worth of stock. Company has $200MM cash. Company just guided down and CEO resigned but Merril Lynch hired to explore options. This is one I like the least but still seemed interesting.

-
PGNX
Progenics Pharmac - $3.87
- -1.53%
- $3.93
PGNX - has to restart a drug trial for its constipation drug. But the company is already making money, profits were higher than expected, they have $125mm cash in the bank and they are down 20% from their highs. Even the analyst who lowered his estimate for PGNX two weeks ago has them at a $33 price.
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