Bear in Bull's Clothing
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Created by justin510
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Date updated:04-17-2007
Since 2003, our market has been a bear in bull's clothing and it is finally beginning to be revealed. I believe we are in the middle of a secular bear market which will hurt anyone who believes in "Stocks for the Long Run". The misinterpretation of an equity risk premium has turned it into and equity risk DISCOUNT, so the best strategy is to be invested in a absolute return portfolio with disciplined risk taking.
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UUP
Ps Db Usd Idx Bl - $22.44
- +0.40%
- $22.49
This stock is a bit contrarian in a sense because our dollar has been on a path to $0, since 1973. I do think however, that there are many catalysts that could lead to a bull run on the greenback in the next few years. I believe that the dollar is being hurt by our low savings rate, as we choose to consume more items that are made in Asia. I see this trend reversing as credit tightens, and the John and Jane Dough realize that they must inevitabably save. This will provide banks with more capital at hand so that they don't have to rely on the printing press to give them collatteral for shady loans. Catalysts include shrinking budget deficits due to a possible Iraq war pullout, an revaluation of the Yuan and bull market in the Yen as well as a slowdown in Consumer Spending. I contend that a small position should be initiated and the dollar should be bought on any weakness going forward.
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AIG
Amer Intl Group N - $35.10
- -1.57%
- $35.62
No Analysis added
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Raytheon Co (new) - $50.59
- +1.53%
- $49.80
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SGK
Schawk Inc - $11.52
- +1.23%
- $11.36
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RIG
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HHJ
N/a - $15.54
- 0.00
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No Analysis added
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N/a - $21.75
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- 0.00
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