Date updated:06-23-2007
From Barron's 6-25-07:
"Somehow, viewing Detroit's labor negotiations through a binomial-options-matrix model seems as incongruous as a merger between Daimler and Chrysler.
Yet Citigroup analysts have developed such a model, and they have identified 17 scenarios in which Ford (ticker: F) and General Motors (GM) might realize savings from the United Auto Workers union. Chrysler, which Daimler recently sold to a private equity firm, wasn't included in the report.

-
GM
Gen Motors - $3.94
- +6.20%
- $3.81
From Barron's 6-25-07: "The complex model used by the Citigroup team, whose members are skilled in equity derivatives, corporate-bond research, capital structures and the auto industry, simply concludes that investors should buy GM January 35 calls...we estimate the value of potential concessions for GM shares at roughly $5.01...If GM's shares -- recently at $34.22 -- aren't higher than $35 at expiration, investors would lose the money spent on the call."

-
F
Ford Motor Co - $2.76
- +6.98%
- $2.64
From Barron's 6-25-07: "The model also recommends financing the purchase by selling a "strangle" on Ford composed of January 7.50 puts and January 10 calls. (In a strangle, an investor holds both a call and a put on a stock. The options have different strike prices but the same maturity.) The Citigroup model also recommends hedging the strangle with credit-derivatives swaps...They expect Ford's shares, recently quoted at $8.83, to stay in a range between $7.50 and $10. If the model is right, investors would pocket the premium."
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06/27/2007 15:25 PM CDT Asked by Goldy
look at zap!!