Date updated:12-20-2008
Some retailers won't survive the downturn in consumer spending -- at least not without a trip to bankruptcy court. How to spot problems on the balance sheet and at the mall.

-
COST
Costco Wholesale - $59.41
- 0.00%
- $59.16
Over time, the names at the top of our list should reward investors, even though some rock-solid retailers, such as Costco Wholesale , look pricey at current levels. The warehouse-club giant would have almost $1 billion of cash, or $2.10 a share, if it paid down all its debt. Yet its stock trades for 17 times expected earnings for the fiscal year ending August 2010, one of the highest multiples in the retailing group.

-
NKE
Nike Inc Cl B - $64.56
- -0.31%
- $64.65
Among cash-rich retailers, Nike and Coach look especially attractive. They sport moderate price/earnings multiples, have little debt and are expected to report higher earnings in fiscal 2009. Bob Drbul, a retail analyst at Barclays Capital, has an Overweight rating on both, and notes that "retailers become more dependent on established brands" in uncertain times. Nike trades for 51.15, or 12 times expected earnings for the fiscal year ending May 2010, and had $2.7 billion of cash and short-term investments, and $478 million of debt as of the end of November. The company reported last week that net income jumped 8.8% in the November quarter, on the strength of its international business.

-
COH
Coach Inc - $33.92
- -0.12%
- $33.79
Coach, a onetime highflier, today trades for about 21, or just nine times estimates for the fiscal year ending in June 2010. It had $406 million, or $1.22 a share in net cash -- or cash and equivalents minus total debt -- as of the end of September. Coach is well positioned in the handbag and accessories market, where its brand has long appealed to so-called aspirational shoppers; if the recession deepens, it could draw interest, as well, from the former buyers of four-digit "it" bags.

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ANF
Abercrombie & Fit - $35.01
- -0.31%
- $34.47
Teen apparel chains have taken a beating this year from skeptical investors; Abercrombie & Fitch is down more than 70%, to 22.84, while American Eagle Outfitters has fallen 53%, to 9.81. Yet both companies have net cash -- Abercrombie's $198 million and American Eagle's $269 million. David Berman, manager of Durban Capital, a New York hedge fund, prefers American Eagle because its fashions are less pricey -- a plus, these days, for teens and parents. Abercrombie's same-store sales fell 28% in November, compared with a far more modest decline of 11% at American Eagle. Berman warns that both are likely to miss earnings estimates this year.

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AEO
Amer Eagle Outfit - $15.84
- +0.32%
- $15.75
Teen apparel chains have taken a beating this year from skeptical investors; Abercrombie & Fitch is down more than 70%, to 22.84, while American Eagle Outfitters has fallen 53%, to 9.81. Yet both companies have net cash -- Abercrombie's $198 million and American Eagle's $269 million. David Berman, manager of Durban Capital, a New York hedge fund, prefers American Eagle because its fashions are less pricey -- a plus, these days, for teens and parents. Abercrombie's same-store sales fell 28% in November, compared with a far more modest decline of 11% at American Eagle. Berman warns that both are likely to miss earnings estimates this year.

-
AMZN
Amazon.com - $126.20
- +4.63%
- $123.00
Online retailer Amazon.com has the biggest cash stash on our list: $2.3 billion, or $5.33 a share. The stock is down 44% year to date, to a recent 51.56, but still sports a hefty price/earnings multiple of 35 times next year's estimated earnings.

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WMT
Wal Mart Stores - $51.25
- -0.06%
- $51.03
In the boom years, leverage wasn't a problem for many retailers, who borrowed liberally to make acquisitions, build new stores or buy back stock at prices that now seem ludicrously high. Today, however, bond markets are closed to all but the best credits. Wal-Mart Stores, and possibly Target , are the only retailers that still could sell debt at reasonable yields, wagers Carol Levenson, director of research at Gimme Credit. But some analysts are wary of Target, citing the company's exposure to potential credit-card losses.

-
TGT
Target Cp - $49.70
- 0.00%
- $49.60
In the boom years, leverage wasn't a problem for many retailers, who borrowed liberally to make acquisitions, build new stores or buy back stock at prices that now seem ludicrously high. Today, however, bond markets are closed to all but the best credits. Wal-Mart Stores, and possibly Target , are the only retailers that still could sell debt at reasonable yields, wagers Carol Levenson, director of research at Gimme Credit. But some analysts are wary of Target, citing the company's exposure to potential credit-card losses.
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