Barron's Summary 9-26-2009
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Date updated:09-26-2009

Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the September 26th, 2009 Barron's.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • OXPS
    Optionsxpress Hol
  • $15.99
  • -1.42%
  • $16.29

OptionsXpress shares look overvalued after a strong run. The firm's bid to boost growth by buying a seminar group seems ill-advised, based on the record of the group's founder.

People owning OXPS also tend to own: APNS.OBAVNRDSCOEBHIECPGEVICGE

TheStreet.com Rating: C+ What is this?

  • +
  • SAP
    Sap Ag Ads
  • $47.74
  • -0.95%
  • $47.81

SAP isn't concerned about third-party competition. "The value proposition of Rimini Street is best suited for customers that are running software that can't be upgraded, which is not the case with SAP customers," says SAP Executive Vice-President Janet Wood. But at least one of SAP's largest customers, Germany's Siemens (SI), might not agree. According to published reports, Siemens is considering using third-party maintenance, which would be a blow to SAP. Wood wouldn't respond directly to those reports, saying: "We have a great relationship with Siemens.

People owning SAP also tend to own: ABTAMXAUYBAPBRK.BBVFDD

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • ORCL
    Oracle Corporatio
  • $22.34
  • -0.22%
  • $22.28

Goldmacher is convinced Rimini and other third-party vendors are a long-term threat to Oracle and SAP. Rimini provides maintenance and support for Siebel, PeopleSoft and JD Edwards business software, all of which were acquired by Oracle in recent years. (Ravin once headed PeopleSoft maintenance support.) Rimini also provides the same for SAP enterprise-software products. Oracle is the more diversified company. It remains a database leader and has entered the server and storage business through its Sun Microsystems acquisition.

People owning ORCL also tend to own: AAPLAMDCSCODELLGOOGIBMINTC

TheStreet.com Rating: B+ What is this?

  • +
  • FMCN
    Focus Media Holdi
  • $13.10
  • -2.02%
  • $13.06

Mark Gardyn, the Oscar Gruss special-situations analyst who urged investors to buy when Focus slumped below 7, thinks ADRs trading near 11 looks fairly valued for now. Even a successful closing on existing terms will drive growth-obsessed Sina investors to bail, capping the value of the 47 million Sina shares to be distributed to Focus. Extending the deadline emphasizes their commitment, but also extends the ambiguity. On the other hand, the downside risk is limited. Focus founder and CEO Jason Jiang this month agreed to buy the equivalent of 15 million newly issued shares at 9.50, which he is obliged to hold for at least six months. This bumps Jiang's Focus stake to 18.9% from 9.5%, and swells the share base to 144 million. Given the dilution, Focus stockholders will receive 0.326 shares of Sina, down from 0.364 shares, if the deal was to close on old terms. Sina was at 35.25 Friday. But those odds aren't high, and Gardyn thinks the likelihood has increased of the deal falling apart, although "the most likely outcome will be a renegotiated deal with reduced Sina share consideration." He thinks Focus is worth 11 given the various possible outcomes, or 9.95 on its own. Focus shares will dip if Sina walks, but that could open the door for longer-term investors. Focus has been selling unprofitable assets and boosting its cash flow. The stub that remains after it sells to Sina includes Internet and movie advertising operations, and outdoor billboards. These aren't given much credit by investors and could surprise pleasantly if ad spending revs up.

People owning FMCN also tend to own: AMATAMTAMXBIDUKRYRACKSTP

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • LHO
    Lasalle Hotel Pro
  • $18.74
  • -2.09%
  • $18.99

Today, LaSalle has "the best balance sheet" among lodging REITs, says Citigroup analyst Joshua Attie. Net debt is just 3.5 times 2010 EBITDA (or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), compared to 7 times for its peers. It is well capitalized, having sold shares recently, and a big sprucing-up just before the downturn limits the need for further expensive refurbishments. This puts LaSalle in a strong position to snag market share, make acquisitions or grow through a challenging stretch for weaker hoteliers. LaSalle's spectacular rebound came at a time when consumer stocks were priced for depression and even extinction. But it's still down roughly 28% over the past year, compared to declines of just 4% for hotels and 24% for specialized REITs. It has less debt and fatter margins than others, yet trades at 14.8 times projected 2010 profits -- compared to 15.8 times for specialized REITs and 19.6 times for the leisure sector. Attie expects LaSalle, which was at 17.67, to trade at 14 times his estimated 2011 EBITDA a year from now, which would peg shares at 22.

People owning LHO also tend to own: AQNTAYIAZRCATYCOMSEACFORM

TheStreet.com Rating: D+ What is this?

  • +
  • BAX
    Baxter Intl Inc
  • $54.33
  • -1.13%
  • $54.71

Baxter, in particular, seems to offer an attractive combination of modest valuation, healthy growth prospects and insulation from possible reform measures. It appeared last week on a Merrill Lynch screen of companies capable of accelerating organic top-line growth in excess of peer companies. The company this month laid out a five-year projection of 7% to 8% annual revenue growth and earnings growth of 11% to 13%. Aside from the attractiveness of such numbers, the company's confidence in detailing a five-year outlook is itself a rare distinction in this environment.

People owning BAX also tend to own: BOBJDELLEBAYHANSJOYGRMIXSBUX

TheStreet.com Rating: A- What is this?

  • +
  • ACN
    Accenture Plc.
  • $39.83
  • +0.20%
  • $39.70

As one large tech company after another looks to emulate the IBM (IBM) model and rush into the services market, there are still a few bargains left for the ordinary investor. Consider Accenture (ACN). Bill Smead, founder of Seattle-based Smead Capital Management, thinks Accenture is a better company than Perot in almost every way. "You can look at every statistic, the balance sheet, margins, ROE -- Accenture is a superior company," he says. And yet, Accenture trades at just 13 times estimated EPS for the August 2010 fiscal year -- less than half what Dell is paying for Perot. As Smead notes, Accenture has survived the recession with barely a scratch. The Street sees fiscal 2009 earnings of $2.68 a share, up a few pennies from last year, with revenue down about 8%, much less than most enterprise-focused hardware and software companies. Accenture is also a lot bigger, with a market cap of $26 billion. That makes it an unlikely takeover target for any but the largest tech players. There's no deal premium in the stock. On the other hand, Smead sees Accenture playing a key role in the imminent launch of Microsoft Windows 7. It should get plenty of work implementing the new software once it is adopted by big businesses. Smead also loves Accenture's model: hiring tech-savvy kids right out of college, making them work long days for large corporate clients, paying them $50 an hour, and then billing them out at $250 an hour. He thinks it is a good deal for the kids, the customers and, especially, Accenture. Smead is willing to sit on his Accenture position for a while; he's a buy-and-hold man. Eventually, information-technology spending will pick up, everyone will adopt Windows 7, and Accenture's flattish revenue will begin to grow again. Accenture could be a $75 stock in three or four years, roughly double its current price, he figures.

People owning ACN also tend to own: RYLSUNMSFTFVZAALD

TheStreet.com Rating: B+ What is this?

  • +
  • MSFT
    Microsoft Corpora
  • $29.62
  • -0.54%
  • $29.67

Speaking of Microsoft (MSFT), it is one of Smead Capital's top 10 positions. Smead says he is a big believer in companies with massive free cash flow and durable businesses. But he also thinks there is tremendous value to be unlocked at Microsoft. He contends the company looks like Disney (DIS) in the last few years before Michael Eisner stepped down as CEO -- that is, it needs a front-office overhaul. "They have been wasting amazing amounts of money trying to be a hip, cool, Superfly inventor of new technology," he says. Were the company to trim money-losing or barely profitable operations like the gaming business and Internet search, he thinks Microsoft could be a $40-$45 stock. "When you think of the executive time, energy and money devoted to businesses that have never made a profit...it makes you upset as a shareholder," he adds. In short, he'd like to see someone from outside Microsoft -- a Lou Gerstner or Robert Iger or Jack Welch type -- replace Steve Ballmer and return the company to its core business. It would be silly to think that will happen soon, but Smead is a patient guy. And he sees huge value to unlock.

People owning MSFT also tend to own: AAPLAMDCSCODELLGOOGIBMINTC

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

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