Date updated:08-23-2008
Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the August 23rd, 2008 Barron's.

-
FE
Firstenergy Cp - $49.33
- -7.45%
- $52.06
Its nuclear plants and increasing deregulation of its operations should help FirstEnergy prosper. Some fans see its shares rising by more than 15% over the next year.

-
PBCT
People's United F - $16.21
- -5.97%
- $17.10
People's United Financial could end up bigger and stronger in the credit crunch. The stock has about 20% upside.

-
RSH
Radioshack Corp - $13.08
- -7.30%
- $14.00
A recent plan to buy back $200 million of shares prompted some short covering that helped nudge the stock higher. Speculation and high hopes that the Fort Worth company might begin selling Apple 's (AAPL) 3G iPhones were doused only so slightly after Best Buy (BBY) was recently given first crack at carrying the popular devices outside Apple and AT&T (T) stores. Its respected CEO, Julian Day, has cut costs, and the wireless business has improved. But it could still be a while before the turnaround turns RadioShack into a destination, if at all. At almost 19, shares fetch 10.7 times 2008 profits, a justified discount to the 13.4 times for electronic retailers. Like the two parts of its throwback name, RadioShack is good for a little nostalgia, a reminder of what consumer electronic retailing once looked like. But unless cash-strapped, credit-deprived Americans begin buying up computers and stereos and batteries in droves -- and doing so at RadioShack! -- the only thing to marvel at in time might be the height of this dead cat bounce.

-
ICE
Intercntntlexchan - $68.63
- -11.18%
- $75.01
Still, has the pullback gone too far? At about 88, ICE shares fetch 13.5 times projected 2009 earnings. This, quite remarkably, is now on par with the valuation of Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ), a fine exchange that has made great strides with cost cuts and expansion but whose stocks can easily trade at rival markets -- unlike "non-fungible" derivatives that can only be bought and sold at the same futures market. The stock also trades at 17.6 times 2008 profits, compared with more than 20 times for specialized finance stocks. Sandler O'Neill analyst Richard Repetto argues that ICE faces comparable risks as other U.S. exchanges. Yet its stock has suffered bigger declines, even with better growth so far this year in transaction revenue, operating income and per-share earnings. To be sure, ICE may never see the staggering multiples it once commanded back when growth was unfettered and booming. But a pesky hurricane season could easily goose energy trading this fall and arrest the stock slide. So could mounting geopolitical tension surrounding Russia. Helping to put a floor under the stock is the company's recent plan to buy back $500 million worth of shares over the next 12 months, which Repetto estimates would cover more than 8% of diluted shares outstanding. His price target: $165.

-
GRMN
Garmin Ltd - $22.43
- -7.58%
- $23.96
As he notes, Garmin on July 30 said that it would delay introduction of its GPS-oriented smartphone, the Nuvifone, from the third quarter of this year to the first half of 2009. "We are skeptical about this effort, as Garmin aspires to participate in a highly competitive marketplace in which it has no prior experience," writes Bright. "And it faces the risk of cannibalizing its existing [portable navigation device] sales." Garmin also is closely tied to discretionary purchases, and thus will suffer the effects of any reduced consumer spending. Bright sees earnings this year of $3.91 a share. The Street consensus is $4.04.

-
CCL
Carnival Corp - $28.16
- -5.88%
- $29.12
A joke, sure, but it's true that at 1.4-times book value Carnival -- the class act of an out-of-favor industry -- trades at a steep discount to the freight shippers riding the global commodity trade. Carnival is also historically cheap based on price/earnings (14-times reduced forward estimates) and price/sales (at 1.6-times, a 15-year low) ratios. The stock has slipped 10% since Barron's favorable feature in the spring, as fuel costs surged and then eased off. Analysts have cooled on the stock and short interest has more than doubled this year, both pluses. Accumulating the shares patiently during this consumer malaise is likely to be rewarded over the long haul.

-
SLH
Solera Holdings I - $22.49
- +5.84%
- $21.87
The analyst maintains a Buy rating on the stock, even though it's up 16% year-to-date to 28.83, and therefore closing in on his target price of 32. SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Andrew Jeffrey, who initiated coverage last week with a Buy rating, has set a slightly higher target of 36. Jeffrey writes that, "It is our opinion that Solera is the leading global provider of vehicle collision estimation and insurance services workflow technology." Like Appert, he's drawn to overseas growth. He noted that the company's position in Europe, the Middle East and Africa offers a chance to process claims in emerging markets, where auto ownership is growing rapidly, as he sees it. The U.S. is more mature than these regions, obviously, but offers stability, Jeffrey believes. There's also a chance Solera could increase its domestic market share as it grows. This processing business is "highly scalable," he notes, which should result in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, free cash flow and earnings-per-share growth that rise faster than revenue growth. The Street is projecting 7% sales growth next year, and Jeffrey is modeling 10% long-term revenue growth.
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