Barron's Summary 8-22-2009
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Date updated:08-22-2009

Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the August 22nd, 2009 Barron's.

symbol name last price % change open
  • +
  • CVS
    Cvs Caremark Corp
  • $34.55
  • -1.54%
  • $35.16

Despite rallying into the mid-30s from the mid-20s, CVS stock has a valuation well below its rivals'. Bulls see it hitting the 40s within a year.

People owning CVS also tend to own: ADMAVPBF-BBTICLDEOK

TheStreet.com Rating: B What is this?

  • +
  • MELA
    Electro-optical S
  • $9.30
  • +0.11%
  • $9.27

If MelaFind passes FDA muster, medical device maker ESO could see its share price go from near $8 to $12.

People owning MELA also tend to own: MPELNNLX.PKPGFUNGXLFGENYX

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • SHLD
    Sears Holdings Co
  • $103.61
  • -1.17%
  • $105.68

Lampert and his hedge-fund partners are backed into a blind alley that affords no escape. The cost-cutting has been so extreme at Sears that it can no longer generate the cash flow to mount a turnaround. Nor can the company borrow at the level necessary for a revival. Sears seems faced with the sad prospect of continuing to lose market share to more aggressive rivals such as Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD) and Kohl's (KSS) -- and watching its earning power dwindle. Sears' stock could fall by as much as 50% as the problems drag on. Morgan Stanley analyst Gregory Melich has a "base case" number of $35. The breakup scenario, for example, would be difficult if not impossible to pull off. There's no financing for retail-real-estate deals. Mall owners are already choking on vacant space. The agonies of Sears are of vital importance to the investors in Lampert's hedge fund since the stock, even after falling from its peak, still accounted for more than half the value of the once $14 billion fund. The fund's performance numbers are hard to come by. Several investors tell Barron's that Lampert makes his partners sign stringent confidentiality agreements. But we did learn that some investors who had joined the fund in the summer of 2007 attempted a jail break in November 2008 when Sears had sunk to just 25% or so of its value when they signed on, but Lampert was able to snuff the rebellion.

People owning SHLD also tend to own: ACFBMYBNIBRK.ABRK.BCCIT

TheStreet.com Rating: C What is this?

  • +
  • HAR
    Harman Internatio
  • $43.97
  • -0.45%
  • $44.30

Bulls can almost be forgiven for mistaking noise for music. Harman shares have levitated 200% since March to about 29, but remain well shy of the $120 a-share price tag some buyout firms offered two years ago. Even after these firms famously balked and called off the deal, hope persists that the healing credit markets will spring another bid. Just last month, the stock spiked on chatter that a furtive Arabian investor had rounded up a furtive Korean buyer to make a furtive run at Harman. Such speculation has driven shares well beyond their worth. Harman has cut costs, and its auto stereo unit has good brands like JBL, Infinity and Harman/Kardon, but rising competition and shrinking margins thwart its return to profitability. With automaker customers increasingly cost conscious, Harman may not see peak margins in the low-teens again. "We think Harman is priced for a combination of revenue and operating margin in 2011 that is overly optimistic," notes Credit Suisse analyst Christopher Ceraso, who values the stock at 18. The cash for clunkers program has revved up car production -- and false hopes. Harman stereos find their way into everything from Aston Martins to Volvos, but the lower-end Ford, General Motors and Toyota models that benefit most from the government's program aren't big customers. What happens once the program ends and artificially accelerated demand stalls? Harman's enterprise value is a whopping 30 times its Ebitda (or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). "In my opinion, once the stock market becomes soft, investors will realize how ridiculous its valuation is, and they will run for the exit," says Michael Goldman of Abbot Capital Partners. "You won't even need JBL speakers to hear that noise."

People owning HAR also tend to own: AMGNANFBBBBCWCOELOSIIFMER

TheStreet.com Rating: D+ What is this?

  • +
  • LUKOY
    Lukoy
  • $0.00
  • N/A
  • $N/A

For investors thinking three to five years down the road, Lukoil (LUKOY) or Gazprom (OGZPY) remain attractive, but taking some profits is a sober move. With such a huge run-up, an investor can take back much of the initial investment in March and still hold a Russian play for the long-term future, but with mostly house money.

People owning LUKOY also tend to own: GSKNOKNVSRDS.ASLBTEFTV

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • OGZPY
    Ogzpy
  • $0.00
  • N/A
  • $N/A

For investors thinking three to five years down the road, Lukoil (LUKOY) or Gazprom (OGZPY) remain attractive, but taking some profits is a sober move. With such a huge run-up, an investor can take back much of the initial investment in March and still hold a Russian play for the long-term future, but with mostly house money.

People owning OGZPY also tend to own: AAPLCSCOEMCFCXFSLRGLWGS

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • AHEXF.PK
    Adecco Sa Chesere
  • $56.45
  • +0.36%
  • $56.45

And that's the problem for investors. Adecco makes hay when employment is rising. Recent data from France and Germany surprised investors with second-quarter growth in gross domestic product. The stock price, however, already markedly discounts improved results in 2010 and beyond, and the shares could be vulnerable to even a small disappointment. At around 51 Swiss francs, Adecco's ordinary shares, which trade on the Swiss Exchange, are valued at a rich 25 times analyst consensus profit estimates of €1.36 a share this year and 24 times 2010 projections of €1.41 (the company reports in euros). Earnings per share ran €2.82 last year and nearly €4 the year before. The thinly traded U.S. shares last changed hands at 49.

People owning AHEXF.PK also tend to own: CVSHARJMPLUKOYMELAOGZPYSHLD

TheStreet.com Rating: No Rating What is this?

  • +
  • JMP
    Jmp Group Inc Com
  • $8.64
  • -0.46%
  • $8.77

While slogging through the post-bubble downturn and the recent recession has been tough, Mack thinks that his firm will benefit from any resurgence in smaller IPOs. JMP, which went public in 2007, racked up $37.5 million in revenues last quarter and is on pace to surpass $120 million for the year. The company's shares have more than tripled from their November low of 3.40, closing Friday at 10.75. The firm, which now has 217 employees and research covering about 250 public companies, has been courting privately held concerns and taking them on "mini-road shows." "We have a private company track, and we are trying to introduce investors early [because] they have to make long-term bets on these small- and mid-cap growth companies," Mack says. On top of that, the crew at JMP, which boasts a market valuation of about $215 million, can empathize with small outfits trying to go public in today's big-cap world. Says Mack: "We definitely eat our own cooking."

People owning JMP also tend to own: AWBAMBXCADXCNQDEEPEMC

TheStreet.com Rating: C- What is this?

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