Date updated:07-25-2009
Summary of the bullish and bearish positions mentioned in the July 25th, 2009 Barron's.

-
VB
Vanguard Sm-cap E - $54.31
- -0.35%
- $54.14
AvalonBay trades for about 56, 61% below its peak. The stock could rally to 61 in the next year as the economy improves, with investors collecting a 6.3% yield on the way.

-
MA
Mastercard Inc - $231.16
- +0.47%
- $229.74
Investors have been narrowing MasterCard's valuation discount to its pricier rival Visa, the card-payment market leader. A P/E of 16 could send MasterCard stock above 200.

-
PLT
Plantronics Inc - $24.82
- -1.86%
- $25.14
Plaintronics' stock has climbed this year as the company has moved to put some problems behind it. Now it could surge another 50%, as earpieces proliferate indoors.

-
OSIP
Osi Pharmaceutica - $32.79
- -0.21%
- $33.05
At 32, OSI Pharmaceuticals trades for 18 times next year's earnings. The stock could rally to 45 in the coming year as sales of OSI's key drug, Tarceva, continues to climb.

-
C
Citigroup Inc - $4.20
- -1.41%
- $4.19
At less than $3, Citi stock looks like a good bet, based on the bank's global foot-print and earnings power. The shares could hit $4 in a year, and $6.50 by 2012.

-
ICE
Intercntntlexchan - $106.77
- +0.01%
- $106.10
For a start, an outright ban on CDS is unlikely, and Geithner understands how crucial derivatives are for managing risk. Far more likely are capital requirements to tame speculation. Position limits aren't the only way to control speculation, and these proposals could give way to rules about accountability and disclosures. But making a case that price swings were caused by excessive speculation may be "particularly challenging for the CFTC" after its own economists found last year that speculators, including swap dealers, weren't driving energy prices, argues Barclays Capital analyst Alex Kramm. Kramm considered various downside scenarios depending on the scope of proposed regulation -- if new rules applied, say, only to crude oil or to all energy futures and over-the-counter business. His base case pegs ICE stock at 116, while the bear case puts it near 76; these shares were at 93 Friday.Stripping out the value of the CDS business would still value ICE shares at roughly 78, says Diego Perfumo, a managing member of Equity Research Desk, which analyzes exchanges for institutional clients. He thinks ICE shares are fairly valued in the 80s but become more fully valued above 100.

-
CME
Cme Group Inc. - $322.99
- +0.32%
- $320.23
Perfumo also thinks CME shares, now fetching 271, would be a bargain near 250. The dollar's role as the currency for world trade has left the planet remarkably exposed to U.S. inflation. Demand for the CME's interest-rate eurodollar contracts plunged as the Fed slashed rates last year, but the government has since been inflating its way out of the recession. "Demand for inflation hedging will come from multiple participants around the globe that have gotten used to low U.S. inflation," including pensions whose payouts are indexed to inflation, endowments and global corporations, Perfumo argues. CME's interest-rate derivatives could eventually trade more briskly than they did before the crisis.

-
NFLX
Netflix - $59.97
- -0.48%
- $59.57
Netflix's newer subscribers are cheapskates, in other words, and they're dragging down the economics of the business. This could yet have a happy ending. Just like the threat of Blockbuster (BBI) and the threat of streaming video, Netflix has consistently put to rest the most dire scenarios. Over time, the service can probably figure out a system of tiered pricing that will be more profitable. If the company can maintain its momentum in online streaming, it may continue to be tossed about as an acquisition candidate for some larger company. Clearly, however, owning the stock right in front of earnings has become a treacherous affair. This was the second quarter in a row in which the shares fell sharply after earnings were released. And you can bet the stock will sag still further as we enter the dog days of August. I don't know when Netflix will prove it's fixed the economics of online movies. Until you do, you may want to steer clear of the stock.
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A. part of the circle of friends.
FFH
A. The only one I own : SLX,
too hard pick a winner out all of them
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